Newcastle United vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Expect Offenses to Feast in Premier League Clash (Sept. 17)

Newcastle United vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Expect Offenses to Feast in Premier League Clash (Sept. 17) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds standout Jack Harrison.

  • Newcastle United welcomes Leeds United to St. James' Park for Friday's Premier League showdown.
  • The Magpies and Peacocks have gotten off to brutal starts this season, combining for three points in eight contests.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the match below and details why he thinks both offenses shine in this meeting.

Newcastle vs. Leeds Odds

Newcastle Odds +205
Leeds Odds +125
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +125)
Day | Time Friday | 3 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Clubs off to truly horrible Premier League starts square off Friday when Newcastle United hosts Leeds United in an intriguing match at St. James’ Park.

Both outfits are winless through four matches, earning a combined three points for their efforts in the English top flight. The Magpies and Peacocks have been bad on the offensive side of things, but their respective defenses have been utterly ghastly. They’re two of the three worst in the 20-team league, so things must turn around quickly for each side.

Leeds enters this match as a +125 favorite, so it will be interesting to see if manager Marcelo Bielsa’s group can secure the road win or if Newcastle can bag all three points on Tyneside.

Let’s take a look at these foes and see what might be in the cards.

Newcastle Hoping to Vacate Relegation Zone

Talk about a rough start to a season. Nothing has gone right for the Magpies, as they’ve mustered just a single point that came via a 2-2 draw with Southampton two games back.

Newcastle got roughed up last time out, suffering a 4-1 road loss against Manchester United at Old Trafford. The Magpies fell under the sword of Cristiano Ronaldo, who bagged a brace on his return to his former club. They actually drew level with the Red Devils via Javier Manquillo’s 56th-minute tally, but the hosts scored three unanswered the rest of the way to earn the win.

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Newcastle sits on 4.3 expected goals and league-worst 9.1 expected goals against this season. Those numbers generate a -4.8 xG differential and -1.20 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Callum Wilson has been one of the lone bright spots for the Magpies, recording two goals this season. However, he will reportedly miss out with a thigh issue. Look for fellow standout Allan Saint-Maximin and former Atlanta United midfielder Miguel Almirón to lead the line with Wilson sidelined.

Leeds Looking for Answers After Brutal Start

As someone who boasts a deep affinity for the Peacocks, it goes without saying I’ve been utterly disappointed with what I’ve seen on the pitch. I had high hopes for one of the most electric clubs from a season ago, but Bielsa’s men have looked like a shell of themselves through a quartet of games.

Following draws with Everton (2-2) and Burnley (1-1), Leeds was demolished on home soil in a 3-0 defeat against Liverpool in their latest fixture. The visiting Reds held a massive 4.1-1.2 xG advantage, with the final numbers and scoreline showing exactly how lopsided things were at Elland Road.

As for the key statistics, the Peacocks have just 4.9 xG and a disappointing 9.0 xGA that generate a -4.1 xGDiff and -1.04 xGDiff/90 minutes. The latter two numbers are the third-worst stats in those respective categories in the league.

We haven’t seen much from Patrick Bamford and teammate Jack Harrison at the start of Leeds’ campaign, so I fully expect both to make their presence known early in this important matchup.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

If you’re looking for offensive fireworks, this match should not disappoint. These are the two worst defenses in the entire league, which has me firmly believing we could see goals galore in this spot.

That said, I’m backing a Single Game Parlay of both teams to score and the total over 2.5 goals at -125 odds via DraftKings as my top pick. At least three goals have been scored in four of their previous six games, including 10 combined last season’s two bouts. Throw in the fact six of their last eight games combined have seen at least three goals, so I fancy my chances.

I’m also playing both teams to score straight up, but not at the current -180 number. That’s just way too much juice for my liking. Instead, I’m going to hold off and hopefully get a live number around -150 before making the investment. Leeds and Newcastle have both found the back of the net in four of their last six meetings, so hopefully things start slow and we can get a better price.

If wagering on player props is your jam, sprinkle a little on Saint-Maximin to score anytime at +220 odds. You’d get a nice return at this number, plus he should see most scoring opportunities with Wilson missing this showdown.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score & Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125)

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