Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: Wolves vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (May 9)

Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction: Wolves vs. Brighton & Hove Albion (May 9) article feature image
Credit:

John Walton – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton’s Neal Maupay (R), Jakub Moder (C) and Danny Welbeck (L)

  • Wolves don't have much to play for -- and they've been playing like it.
  • Soccer bettig analyst Anthony Dabbundo explains why he's expecting another lackluster effort from them on Sunday.
  • Find his full preview of the Premier League match between Wolves and Brighton & Hove Albion below.

Wolves vs. Brighton Odds

Wolves Odds +225
Brighton Odds +120
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+130 / -165)
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

Nothing says Premier League like a 7 a.m. ET start between two mid-table teams with absolutely nothing to play for and four matches left in the season. That’s what we have on Sunday with Brighton traveling to Wolverhampton to take on Wolves at Molineux.

It’s been a disappointing campaign for both sides, but for different seasons. Wolves were unable to follow up back-to-back seventh-place finishes and remain in the top half of the PL table while Brighton are the analytics and xG darlings, but bad luck defensively and poor finishing in attack has them much lower in the table than they should be.

With that being said, Wolves has seen their performances fall off in recent weeks, indicating that they already have one eye toward the offseason and next season. Injuries have piled up to key players and their lacking squad depth has been exposed. On the other end, Brighton have continually improved in performance and are a much better team than Wolves.

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Wolves

Wolves are down multiple key players entering Sunday.

Left wing back Jonny is out, along with striker Raul Jimenez, who has been out the entire second half of the season. Winger Pedro Neto was in the midst of a breakout campaign at ball progression and chance creation, but he is out, too. Wolves will not have center back Willy Boly and may not have center midfielder Joao Moutinho.

Combine all of these injuries, and it’s a time for manager Nuno Espirito Santo to give the youth some run. He can tinker with lineups and try different patterns of play. In the end, though, this is Wolves — and they have a clear way of playing. Brighton should dominate possession and game control, with Wolves looking to hit them on the counter.

Wolves have lost the xG battle to Fulham, West Brom and Burnley in the last month. The only good performance came against Sheffield United, a 1-0 win. They are a team without much to play for and have been playing like it for the last month.

I love fading teams like this at the end of the season.

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Brighton

I don’t want to sound like a broken record when it comes to how underrated this Brighton team is, and we write about their expected goals every week, so let’s mix it up.

Brighton is seventh in shots per 90 and third-best in shots allowed per 90. Their actual goal difference is 12th-best. They’re seventh-best in shot creating actions and fourth-best in shot creating actions allowed. The Seagulls are second-best in pressing success rate and second-best in pressing success rate allowed. Brighton has the fifth-most passes in the opponent penalty area and allows the fifth-fewest in their own. The Seagulls rank seventh in progressive passing.

Not one of those stats suggests that Brighton should be in 14th, or below Wolves at all. They are better than Wolves in every statistical category mentioned.

Every single one of those statistics isn’t expected goals, but real stats that show how good the Seagulls are. Manager Graham Potter has turned a relegation candidate into a legitimate top half team. They are seventh-best in my ratings.

The moral arc of the advanced stats universe is long, sometimes painfully so. For the Seagulls, who ran even with their dismal xG numbers last year, it will come.


Betting Analysis & Pick

My projections make Brighton +110 in this match away from home. I like their moneyline all the way to +120 or better, when the edge becomes too small to play.

Wolves’ underlying attacking numbers are bad, and are even worse without Pedro Neto. Brighton might need only one to win this game and Wolves’ defense has significantly regressed in the second half of the campaign.

With nothing to play for, Wolves could see even more lackluster displays.

Pick: Brighton ML (+120 or better)

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