Wolves vs. Brentford Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Hosts to Sting Promoted Bees in EPL Match (Sept. 18)

Wolves vs. Brentford Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Hosts to Sting Promoted Bees in EPL Match (Sept. 18) article feature image
Credit:

Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Hwang Hee-chan.

  • Wolves welcome promoted side Brentford to Molineux Stadium for Saturday's Premier League match.
  • The host side picked up its first win of the campaign last time out, earning the win against Watford.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the contest below and details why he likes Wolverhampton to secure the victory.

Wolves vs. Brentford Odds

Wolves Odds -115
Brentford Odds +390
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+140 / -175)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Two of the more refreshing faces in the Premier League do battle in Saturday’s early kickoff when Wolves host Brentford at the Molineux Stadium.

Wolverhampton finally shook off some of its poor luck to begin the season last weekend with a 2-0 win at Watford. Meanwhile, Brentford suffered its first top-flight loss since their last season in the English first division, way back in 1946-47, in a 1-0 home setback against Brighton & Hove Albion.

This is these clubs’ first meeting since January 2018, when Wolves earned a 3-0 victory in the League Championship en route to a first-place finish and promotion to the top flight.

Wolves Finally Break Through Against Watford

First-year manager Bruno Lage’s side entered the September international break winless and as perhaps the most unfortunate club in the opening weeks of the season in terms of chances against goals.

Eventually, that was rectified in a comfortable away win against overmatched Watford. It took a 74th-minute own goal to finally burst through a season-opening shutout streak before substitute Hwang Hee-chan put the game away in the 88th minute.

Performances off the bench from Hee-chan and Daniel Podence have prompted speculation Lage could insert either or both into the starting lineup against Brentford.

With a -1 goal difference, Wolves are still lagging their expected goals considerably, with a +3.2 xG difference the third largest in the league.

Brentford Coming Off First Premier League Loss

The newly promoted visitors from London make the trip to the Midlands looking for a third consecutive away draw.

The Bees’ presence is also a reminder Wolves don’t have the market cornered on poor luck in the early days of the new season. Brentford’s +1 goal difference and xG difference (1.1) are about even.

Yet, on a game-by-game level, Brentford has been unlucky in the three games since a wonderful 2-0 home win against Arsenal to open life in the Premier League. The Bees notched more xG than their opposition in all three of those matches, but took only two points.

On the other hand, Brentford’s inability to find the net in last weekend’s 1-0 home loss to Brighton is also indicative of the difficulty newly promoted sides often have at this level.

Brentford was easily the better team against Brighton in the first half, but failed to score. And in the second half, the Bees ran out of ideas without an abundance of bench options available to change the game.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

On first glance, playing the over at +140 odds is really appealing here.

Neither of these teams has played a match where total goals have featured more than 2.5 goals, though that’s not for lack of attacking endeavor. There’s a sense with both clubs that the games might become a lot more wide open if a first goal were to come inside, say, the opening half hour.

However, if I’m being honest, I just don’t know these teams well enough to tell you to advise that.

Here’s what I do know: Wolves are extremely unlucky not to have more than three points so far. Their xG difference of 3.2 is the third highest in the league, and that’s despite an opening stretch against three top-seven finishers from the previous season. And home sides have won 19 of 40 matches so far (47.5%) in the new campaign with fans back at the grounds.

Brentford’s +1.1 xG difference is also notable. However, the Bees have faced a much weaker opening schedule (and yes, I include Arsenal in that), and it’s pretty clear they’re the weaker team here.

That’s enough for me to play Wolves on the money line at -115 odds and an implied 53.5% probability. I suspect we might look back on that price later this year and realize it was a relative bargain.

Pick: Wolves ML (-115)

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