Philadelphia vs. Inter Miami: Saturday Major League Soccer Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (April 24)

Philadelphia vs. Inter Miami Odds

After seeing his chance at a first MLS managerial win evaporate late on opening weekend, Phil Neville leads Miami to Supporters’ Shield holders Philadelphia on Saturday night.

Inter twice gave back a one-goal lead last Sunday before succumbing 3-2 to the LA Galaxy and becoming the largest 2021 opening weekend favorite to drop points.

It's part of an emerging trend for Miami, one where co-owner David Beckham's pursuit of success and glamour has created a club that is wildly overvalued. (More on this later.)

Meanwhile, after winning the Shield with the best regular season record in 2020, Philadelphia began 2021 with a solid 0-0 draw at the defending MLS Cup champion Columbus Crew.

Philly's incremental achievement should serve as a model for Beckham and Neville. Manager Jim Curtin has guided the Union to the postseason and an improved points total from the previous season in each of the last three years.

Philadelphia

Philadelphia is one of a record five MLS teams to reach the Concacaf Champions League quarterfinals after winning a two-leg, first-round series early this month.

Along with Columbus, it became one of four that failed to score in its league opener. 

Defending MLS Goalkeeper of the Year Andre Blake made six saves to hold the Crew scoreless despite the hosts generating 1.3 xG, according to MLSsoccer.com.

Kacper Przybylko and Jamiro Monteiro each have two goals for the Union in Concacaf play. Przybylko also has 23 goals in 50 career MLS appearances.

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Inter Miami

Neville went into the opener insisting his side weren’t as fit as others due to interruptions in their preseason itinerary because of COVID-19 concerns.

So his decision to use only one substitute prior to the 83rd minute was puzzling, particularly on a 90-degree afternoon in South Florida. 

If not for a fortuitous penalty decision — converted by Gonzalo Higuaín for his second Miami goal since his arrival last September — the Galaxy might have reversed the outcome sooner. 

Of Miami’s 1.8 non-penalty expected goals (xG), only 0.15 of those came between the 49th minute and Neville’s 83rd-minute double substitution.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Until Inter Miami prove they can find sustained success, it’s as simple as this: Fade them.

Inter has played 25 competitive matches in their history. According to Odds Portal, if you had bet $100 on each of their opponents, you’d be up $1,883 — a staggering 75.3% return on investment.

Think that can't possibly be true? Consider the last two weeks:

• Week 2: Philadelphia, which was perfect at home in 2020, is a +114 home favorite the night before against a Miami side that conceded three times at home.
• Week 1: Miami, which finished 10th last season, is a -159 home favorite the night before against a Galaxy side that is equally unproven.

Why is this happening? Maybe it's a lot of uninformed money betting on the name recognition of Beckham, Neville, Higuain or World Cup winner Blaise Matuidi. And objectively, it is a talented — albeit imperfect — roster.

Could Miami find winning ways in Year 2? Sure. There's just nothing to suggest that's any more likely in Week 2 than it was in Week 1. So don’t overthink this one and back the Union at home.

Pick: Philadelphia (+114)