Chelsea vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday Premier League (Dec. 5)

Chelsea vs. Leeds United Odds, Picks, Predictions for Saturday Premier League (Dec. 5) article feature image
Credit:

David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Olivier Giroud.

  • Chelsea is favored over scrappy Leeds United in Saturday Premier League action.
  • The Blues have been red hot in Europe and domestically, while Leeds' is just three points out of the No. 5 spot in the Premier League thanks to an unrelenting offensive style.
  • Get our best bet and full breakdown for Chelsea vs. Leeds below.

Chelsea vs. Leeds Odds

Chelsea Odds -195 [BET NOW]
Leeds Odds +500 [BET NOW]
Draw +350 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3.5 (+128/-159) [BET NOW]
Time 3 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN/fuboTV

Odds updated as of Friday at 11:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Things could get pretty interesting in Premier League action Saturday when Chelsea hosts Leeds United at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues, who are sitting in third place on the table, are coming off an impressive 4-0 road win over Spanish side Sevilla in Champions League action at Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium.

Everyone in the match was living in Olivier Giroud’s world during that UCL fixture. The French standout struck for a hat trick plus one (yes, all four goals) in the huge Group E showdown.

On the other side, Leeds secured a clutch, 1-0 victory against Everton in its most recent fixture, putting the club just three points out of fifth place in England’s top flight.

Another element of excitement that should get both team’s juices flowing is the fact there will be up to 2,000 fans inside Stamford Bridge for the match. You have to think the players from both sides will be even more motivated to put together a solid showing in front of spectators.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at these teams and see what’s in store.

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Chelsea

The Blues could not be playing a better brand of soccer at the moment.

Chelsea is unbeaten in its last 12 matches across all competitions, earning eight wins and four draws during that blistering stretch. The outfit’s defense has been on point, conceding just five goals along the way. Southampton scored three of them in a 3-3 draw back on October 17 at Stamford Bridge.

When it comes to the statistical data, Chelsea have put together some solid numbers so far. The Blues boast a modest 15.8 xGs and stellar 9.8 expected goals against, generating a +6.0 xGDiff and +0.60 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

Chelsea really shines in the xGA department, sitting second overall behind Manchester City (9.6 xGA) out of 20 teams. The Blues are only trail Liverpool for the league’s best side in the xGDiff and xGDiff/90 minutes categories.

Leeds

The Peacocks continue to arguably be the most entertaining franchise in the entire league. This club is made-for-TV when it steps on the pitch every time out, regardless of who it’s facing in a given fixture.

Leeds has racked up a 4-2-4 record thus far, good enough for 14 points to put it even with Newcastle on the table. It’s also just a point behind perennial power Manchester City and two behind Manchester United.

After their fast start, the Peacocks have struggled finding the back of the net. They’ve scored just three goals in their last four tilts, which has to be a slight cause for concern heading into hostile territory.

As for the advanced metrics, Leeds has produced some pretty wild numbers overall and when compared to Chelsea’s figures.

The Peacocks have generated an impressive 17.8 xGs, but a brutal 16.8 expected goals against, resulting in a +1.0 xGDiff and +0.11 for xGDiff/90 minutes. Liverpool is the only team in front of Leeds in xGs this season.

However, the Peacocks also rank 19th on the table in xGA, with lowly West Bromwich Albion (19.1 xGA) sitting right below them at the bottom.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

I really like the way Chelsea is playing under manager Frank Lampard. The Blues looked fantastic earlier this week against Sevilla, which has me believing this club isn’t about to step off the gas in this spot.

That said, I am backing Chelsea at -1 on the spread, simply because the three-way moneyline features way too much juice for my liking.

Expect Giroud and the lads to put on a show in front of their limited number of fans at Stamford Bridge en route to the victory.

I will also back the total to stay under the number. Chelsea has conceded just one goal in its last five league fixtures, with that lone blemish coming in a 4-1 triumph over lowly Sheffield United five matches back.

I just don’t see Leeds causing issues facing this staunch Chelsea defense.

Picks: Chelsea -1 (120) | Total Under 3.5 Goals (-159)

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