Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Roma vs. Benevento (Sunday, Oct. 18)

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Marco Canoniero/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Smalling.

Serie A: Roma vs. Benevento Odds

Roma Odds -315 [BET NOW]
Benevento Odds +800 [BET NOW]
Draw +430 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-137/+110) [BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 2:45 p.m. ET
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Newly promoted Benevento head to the Stadio Olimpico to take on Roma, having enjoyed a successful start to the season. Traveling to the capitol will be a good test against a Roma side that has had a more lukewarm start and will want to walk away with a convincing win over the newcomers.

Both sides have the ability to create and attack, so I expect an exciting game.

Roma

The Giallorossi finished fifth in Serie A last season. Based on xG differential, they probably should have finished fourth above city rivals Lazio, who were a bit fortunate due to the amount of penalties scored by Ciro Immobile last season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


However, they are not without flaws. Last season, Roma averaged 2.06 xG per game, which only trailed Atalanta. Their defending was a bit of an issue, though, conceding 1.78 xGA per game.

Roma 2019-20 3.84 xG/game
Roma 2020-21 3.29 xG/game
Benevento 2020-21 3.71 xG/game

To start the season, it has been more of the same, scoring 1.79 xG per game and still conceding 1.50. One of their games was a 2-2 Juventus, who registered 2.82 xG, so maybe Roma’s xGA is a bit inflated compared to the rest of Serie A, but I still think that is a weakness of theirs.

Chris Smalling has returned to Roma on a permanent basis, which is a positive. However, I think the Top 6 will be tougher to sneak into this year. AC Milan and Napoli will be greater threats this season, so I would probably put Roma seventh in the league power rankings until I see more.

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Benevento

The Stregoni are experiencing top tier of Italian football for the first time since the 2017-18 season. In that season, they finished last in the table. The primary issue was in defense, as they conceded 77.31 xGA, five more goals than any other side. Last season, they reigned as champions of the Serie B, dominating en route to an 18-point victory.

Benevento scored 1.76 goals per game and only conceded 0.71 per contest. Obviously, it’s a different playing field in Serie A, but I wanted to highlight that they have shown the ability to score.

Over the first three games of the season, Benevento have generated 1.14 xG per game and conceded 2.57. Their actual goal tally is higher than this, and I would expect they can put one in on Roma. They haven’t been blanked yet, and Roma are not a fortress at the back.

After winning two of their first three matches, with the only defeat coming to Inter, I would expect them to be high in confidence and get after it.

Roma-Benevento Betting Pick

I like goals in this match, as you could probably tell from the evidence I outlined above. The over of 3.0 is current -137 at DraftKings, but I am waiting for that number to get closer to -130.

With that, I am going to offer another option if you aren’t comfortable with those odds. I am going to take a shot on a prop bet I like, which is Both Teams to Score and Roma to win at +163. Like I said, I like this game finishing 3-1 or 4-1. If you can find the -130 on the over, that’s my preference. If the price gets away from us, I will recommend the Both Teams to Score and Roma moneyline parlay at +163.

The PICKS: Over 3 if -130 | Both Teams to Score and Roma moneyline +163

[Bet Dillon’s parlay now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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