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European Soccer Forecast: Projected Odds, Totals for Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A and More (Nov. 20-Nov. 23)

Credit:

Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Mo Salah

Club soccer returns to Europe’s major five leagues after two weeks off due to another international break. In case you forgot here’s some of what we saw a little over a week ago:

  • Manchester United got their Premier League season back on track beating Everton at Goodison Park.
  • Manchester City and Liverpool drew, 1-1, in one of the most highly anticipated matches of the English season.
  • Bayern Munich asserted their place at the top of the Bundesliga table, beating Borussia Dortmund, 3-2, on the road.
  • Bayer Leverkusen won a seven goal thriller 4-3 over Borussia Monchengladbach to move into the top four in the Bundesliga.
  • Real Madrid conceded three penalties in a 4-1 loss at Valencia, dropping them to fourth place in La Liga.
  • Lazio scored in the dying seconds to secure a 1-1 draw at home against defending Serie A champion Juventus.

This weekend’s slate features some huge matches in the Premier League, Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, but many teams who are participating in Champions League and Europa League have matches coming up in the middle of next week. Therefore, it may be a good idea to wait until starting lineups come out before heading to the window.

You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.

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If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.

Note: These projections do not take into account injuries. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team’s starting XI. 

Premier League

Premier League Notes: 

  • Liverpool vs. Leicester City: An early top-four battle, as Leicester tries to hold on to the top spot in the Premier League. Liverpool will have to do it without Mohamed Salah, who will miss the clash after testing positive for COVID-19. Liverpool has won five out of their last six matches against Leicester.
  • Tottenham vs. Manchester City: The Cityzens desperately need a win to make up ground in the Premier League. Tottenham on the other hand is in second place and could potentially go to the top of the table with a win on Saturday.

Premier League Injury News: 

  • Aston Villa: Bertrand Traore (RW) has been ruled out against Brighton.
  • Brighton: Lewis Dunk (CB) is out against Aston Villa.
  • Burnley: Jack Cork (CM) is out against Crystal Palace.
  • Chelsea: Christian Pulisic (RW), Kai Havertz (CAM) and Ben Chilwell (LB) are all questionable to play against Newcastle.
  • Crystal Palace: Lucas Milivojevic (CM) and Joel Ward (LB) are questionable to play against Burnley.
  • Everton: Seamus Coleman (RB) is questionable to face Fulham.
  • Leicester: Wilfred Ndidi (CM), Caglar Soyuncu (CB) and Daniel Armartey (CM) are all out, and Kasper Schmeichel (GK) is questionable to play against Liverpool.
  • Liverpool: Virgil Van Dijk (CB), Joe Gomez (CB) and Mohamed Salah (RW) are out against Leicester City, and Andrew Robertson (RB), Trent Alexander-Arnold (LB), Jordan Henderson, (CM) and Thiago (CM) are all questionable.
  • Manchester City: Nathan Ake is doubtful to play against Tottenham, and Benjamin Mendy (LB), Raheem Sterling (LW) and Sergio Aguero (ST) are all questionable.
  • Manchester United: Luke Shaw (LB) is out against West Brom, and Mason Greenwood (RW), Marcus Rashford (LW) and Jesse Lingard (CAM) are all questionable.
  • Newcastle: Jonjo Shelvey (CM), Matt Ritchie (LM) and Dwight Gayle (ST) are all out against Chelsea, and Callum Wilson (ST) is questionable.
  • Sheffield United: Lys Mousset (ST), John Fleck (CM) and Jack O’Connell (CB) are all out against West Ham.
  • Southampton: Danny Ings (ST) is out against Wolves, and Ryan Bertrand (RB) is questionable.
  • West Ham: Michail Antonio (ST) and Angelo Ogbonna (CDM) are both questionable to face Sheffield United.
  • Wolves: Conor Coady (CB) is questionable to face Southampton.

Bundesliga

Bundesliga Notes:

  • Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: Die Roten Bullen will look to keep pace with Bayern Munich at the top of the table when they head to Frankfurt on Saturday. RB Leipzig has the best xGD to start the Bundesliga season at +11.16 through seven matches. Frankfurt has continued their solid expected goals record into the 2020-21 campaign, but have nothing to show for it. They have the fifth best xGD so far but find themselves in 11th place in the table.
  • Hertha Berlin vs. Borussia Dortmund: After the loss in Der Klassiker, Dortmund now trails Bayern Munich by three points in the table. They are right where they belong in the table with the third best xGD in the Bundesliga. Hertha Berlin is winless in their last 10 matches against the top four.

Bundesliga Injury News: 

  • Bayern Munich: Joshua Kimmich (CM) and Alphonso Davies (RB) are out for an extended period of time.
  • Bayer Leverkusen: Charles Aranguiz (CM) is questionable to face Arminia Bielefeld.
  • Borussia Dortmund: Julian Brandt (CAM) is questionable to face Hertha Berlin.
  • Borussia Monchengladbach: Jonas Hoffman (RM) is out against Augsburg, and Denis Zakaria (CDM) is questionable.
  • Frankfurt: Sebastian Rode (CDM) is out against RB Leipzig.
  • Freiburg: Janik Haberer (CM) is out against Mainz with an ankle injury.
  • Hertha Berlin: Jordan Torunaigha (CB) is questionable against Augsburg.
  • Hoffenheim: Nine players have tested positive for COVID and their status is questionable for Saturday’s match against Vfb Stuttgart.
  • Koln: Jonas Hector (CM), Timo Horn (GK) and Florian Kainz (RM) are questionable against Union Berlin.
  • RB Leipzig: Dayot Upamecano is questionable and Lukas Klostermann (CB) is out against Frankfurt.
  • Schalke 04: Suat Serder (CM) is questionable to face Wolfsburg.
  • Werder Bremen: Davie Selke (ST) is questionable against Bayern Munich.
  • Wolfsburg: Paulo Otavio (LB) is questionable versus Schalke.

Serie A

Serie A Notes: 

  • Napoli vs. AC Milan: An early battle between first and third place in Serie A. Napoli trails AC Milan by three points and can take the top spot in the table with a win on Sunday. AC Milan has been on fire offensively averaging 2.51 xG per match. On the flip side, Napoli has been one of the best defenses in Europe this season, allowing only 0.57 xG per match.

Serie A Injury News

  • Atalanta: Robin Gosens (LB) and Marten de Roon (CM) are both questionable to face Spezia.
  • Bologna: Andrea Poli (CM) is out against Sampdoria, and Gary Medel (CM) is questionable.
  • Fiorentina: Jose Callejon (RW) is questionable to face Benevento.
  • Genoa: Marko Pjaca (RW) is out against Udinese, and Domenico Criscito (LB) and Cristian Zapata (CB) are questionable.
  • Inter: Stefano Sensi (CM) is questionable to face Torino.
  • Juventus: Leonardo Bonucci (CB), Adrien Rabiot (CM), Federico Chiesa (RWB), Paulo Dybala (CF), Giorgio Chiellini (CB) and Aaron Ramsey (CM) are all questionable to face Cagliari.
  • Napoli: Victor Osimhen (ST) is questionable to face AC Milan.
  • Roma: Edin Dzeko (ST) and Lorenzo Pellegrini (CM) are questionable to face Parma.
  • Sampdoria: Lorenzo Tonelli (CB) and Tommaso Augello (LB) are both out against Bologna due to suspensions.
  • Sassuolo: Francesco Caputo (ST), Vlad Chiriches (CB) and Filip Djuricic (CAM) are all questionable to face Verona.
  • Udinese: Roberto Pereyra (CM) is questionable to face Genoa.
  • Verona: Marco Davide Faraoni (RM) and Matteo Lovato (CB) are both questionable to face Sassuolo.

La Liga

La Liga Notes: 

  • Villarreal vs. Real Madrid: Los Blancos are desperate for points to make up ground in La Liga after losing 4-1 at Valencia. Villarreal leads Real Madrid by two points for second place in La Liga, so a win could give them a five-point cushion over the defending champions. Villarreal has won five of their last six matches at home. They also have only lost once to Real Madrid in their last five meetings at the Estadio de la Ceramica.
  • Atletico Madrid vs. Barcelona: After a slow start to their 2020-21 La Liga campaign, Barcelona is in eighth place and cannot afford to drop anymore points. Atletico is unbeaten in their last 15 La Liga matches at home and have conceded only seven goals in those games.

La Liga Injuries: 

  • Alaves: Edgar Mendez (RM) is out against Valencia due to a suspension.
  • Athletic Bilbao: Dani Garcia (CM) is questionable to face Real Betis.
  • Atletico Madrid: Yannick Carrasco (RM) and Diego Costa (ST) are questionable to face Barcelona.
  • Barcelona: Ansu Fati (LW) is out for four months with a knee injury.
  • Cadiz: Jose Mari (CM) is questionable to face Real Sociedad.
  • Celta Vigo: Emre Mor (CAM) is questionable to play versus Sevilla.
  • Elche: Youssouf Kone (LB) and Fidel (LM) are questionable to face Levante.
  • Getafe: Mathias Olivera (LB) is questionable to face Eibar.
  • Granada: Kenedy (RW) is out and Dimitri Foulquier (RB) is questionable to play versus Real Valladolid.
  • Levante: Jorge Miramon (RB) is questionable to face Elche.
  • Real Betis: Aissa Mandi (CB) is out against Athletic Bilbao, and Nabil Fekir (CAM) is questionable.
  • Real Madrid: Ferland Mendy (LB), Karim Benzema (ST), Casemiro (CM), Eden Hazard (LW) and Lucas Vazquez (CAM) are all questionable to play against Villarreal. Sergio Ramos is out.
  • Real Sociedad: Robin Le Normand (CB) is out against Cadiz due to a suspension.
  • Sevilla: Jesus Navas (RB) and Marcos Acuna (LB) are both questionable to face Celta Vigo.
  • Valencia: Maximiliano Gomez (ST) and Jasper Cillessen (GK) are both questionable to face Alaves.

Ligue 1

Ligue 1 Notes:

  • Monaco vs. PSG: Monaco continues their quest to get back to European soccer against their rival PSG. Monaco is unbeaten in their first five matches at home and sits sixth in the Ligue 1 table. PSG, on the other hand, has been on a path of destruction, winning eight straight matches in Ligue 1 by a combined score of 26-1. PSG has also won four of the last five meetings against Monaco.

Ligue 1 Injuries: 

    • Angers: Sofiane Boufal (LW) is questionable to play against Lyon.
    • Brest: Romain Philippoteaux (LM) and Christophe Herelle (CB) are both questionable to face Saint Etienne.
    • Dijon: Eric Emimbe (LM) and Anibal Chala (LB) are both questionable to face Lens.
    • Lens: Ignatius Ganago (ST) is questionable to play against Dijon.
    • Lyon: Jason Denayer (CB) is questionable to play against Angers.
    • Metz: Vincent Pajot (CM) is questionable to play against Nantes.
    • Nantes: Moses Simon (LM) is questionable to play against Metz.
    • Nice: Youcef Atal (RB) is questionable and Hassane Kamara (LB) is out against Marseille.
    • PSG: Neymar (LW), Kylian Mbappe (RW), Mauro Icardi (ST), Marco Verratti (CM), Julian Draxler (CAM) and Idrissa Gueye (CM) are all questionable against Monaco.
    • Reims: Xavier Chavalerin (CM) is questionable to face Nimes.
    • Rennes: Eduardo Camavinga (CM) and Faitout Maouassa (LB) are questionable to play against Bordeaux.
    • Saint Etienne: Arnaud Nordin (RM) and Mathieu Debuchy (RB) are questionable to play against Brest.
    • Strasbourg: Jean-Eudes Aholou (CM) is questionable to play against Montpellier.
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