Bundesliga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wolfsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach (Sunday, Feb. 14)
Denis Doyle/Getty Images. Pictured: Yann Sommer.
- The inconsistent MGB will take on Wolfsburg in Bundesliga action on Sunday.
- Anthony Dabbundo sees a low-scoring game coming in this German matchup.
- He explains why and shares a betting pick based on his analysis below.
Wolfsburg vs. M’Gladbach Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-143 / +115)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 12 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Wolfsburg has won four straight Bundesliga games and vaulted into third in the league ahead of its clash with Borussia Monchengladbach on Sunday.
Gladbach has been inconsistent in both results and performances in recent weeks as they upset Bayern and Dortmund, but recently lost to Koln in a local derby.
The tactical play styles of these two teams leads to this being another cagey affair.
Only Bayern Munich is in better recent form than Wolfsburg in the Bundesliga. Wolfsburg beat Mainz, Leverkusen, Freiburg and Augsburg, all without conceding a goal.
They have allowed less than one expected goal against (xGA) in each of those four matches, despite leading for long stretches of each. Their offense is still inconsistent and spotty against the bigger teams in the Bundesliga, and they created less than 1.2 expected goals for (xGF) against Bayern, Leipzig, M’Gladbach and Leverkusen twice.
They’re also running unsustainably hot results when looking at the entire season as a whole. Wolfsburg is rightly favored in this match, being at home and marginally better than M’Gladbach. But their season long xG difference is +6.9, but their actual goal difference is +13. The Wolves will see some regression eventually, and it could come against this underrated M’Gladbach defense.
Gladbach has produced big results in some of its biggest matches of the season, and dropped points in matches where they have more talent, but haven’t necessarily been able to break down lower tier Bundesliga sides.
Gladbach upset Bayern, beat Leipzig, smashed Dortmund and advanced out of their Champions League group of death, but failed to win either of their last two games against Union Berlin and Koln.
Because of the nature of the season, manager Marco Rose has rotated his attacking players almost every match to keep them fresh. At times, they’ve lacked continuity and struggled when in possession to break down opponents and create big chances.
The Foals are at their best when they’re able to set up in a mid block, press heavy touches and errant passes, win the ball and immediately look to get runners in behind. It’s why they’ve done well against the best teams in the league.
As a whole this season, Gladbach have been very reliant on set pieces for goals, which hasn’t proven to be sustainable long term.
It’s scored 16 of their 37 goals from set pieces or penalties, and Wolfsburg’s defense has been third best in the league at preventing box entries. It will be difficult for Gladbach to create big chances against this defense-first Wolfsburg team, who’s unlikely to leave themselves exposed at the back in numbers.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I only project 2.71 goals in this match and unless there’s more set piece magic from Gladbach, or goalkeeper Yann Sommer continues to underperform his xG numbers in the Gladbach goal, this one should stay under 3.
Pick: Under 3 (-130 or better)