Portland vs. Seattle Major League Soccer Betting Odds & Pick: Bet the Sounders On Moneyline (Sunday, May 9)

Portland vs. Seattle Major League Soccer Betting Odds & Pick: Bet the Sounders On Moneyline (Sunday, May 9) article feature image
Credit:

Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Raul Ruidiaz.

  • The biggest rivalry in Major League Soccer will be played Sunday in front of fans for the first time in 21 months.
  • Seattle's Raul Ruidiaz has already made a real case for this year's Golden Boot, plus he will be going up against a Portland team that's playing on short rest.
  • Ian Quillen thinks backing the Sounders on the road is a pretty easy decision to make.

Portland vs. Seattle Odds

Portland Odds +175
Seattle Odds +143
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-152 / +116)
Day | Time Sunday | 3 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds updated Sunday afternoon via DraftKings.

The biggest rivalry in Major League Soccer will be contested in front of fans for the first time since August of 2019 when Portland hosts Seattle in a lunchtime local kickoff on Sunday.

The visiting Sounders are the in-form side with a pair of victories, a draw and a +7 goal differential through three matches of the young season.

Meanwhile, the Timbers return home following their dismissal in the Concacaf Champions League after a 3-1 a defeat to Club America in Mexico City on Wednesday night.

The return of a limited-capacity crowd to Providence Park for this Cascadia Cup clash should give this one plenty of edge.

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Portland

The Timbers have struggled offensively in each of their two MLS games that have immediately followed CCL commitments, scoring only once over those 180 minutes and creating only 1.6 expected goals (xG) worth of offensive opportunities, according to StatsBomb.

There is some reason to think this time might be different.

Striker Jeremy Ebobisse has made substitute cameos in Portland’s last two matches and could be in position for his first start Sunday after working back from a hamstring issue.

Portland may also be due some good luck. Their -3 goal difference so far this season is nearly three goals worse than their xG totals would suggest, according to American Soccer Analysis.

So far, teams in CCL have improved their MLS performances in Week 4. Philadelphia and Columbus both won on Saturday, becoming the first two teams in 11 tries to do so after a midweek Concacaf match.

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Seattle

Although all the early scoring attention has landed on LA Galaxy star Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, Raul Ruidiaz may be the striker mounting the more sustainable run toward the 2021 MLS Golden Boot.

Ruidiaz has four goals in three matches — one shy of Chicharito entering Saturday. Per American Soccer Analysis, the Peruvian leads all of MLS with 3.00 xG-worth of attacking through three matches. (Chicharito is second at 2.83 xG).

But if Seattle’s offense is more one-dimensional given a long-term injury to Jordan Morris and minor ailments for Nicolas Lodeiro, that theoretically means it could become easier to defend.

That hasn’t materialized yet. But Lodeiro is again questionable for Sunday (knee soreness), and his backup Josh Atencio is out (quad strain). That probably leaves the starting playmaking duties to Kelyn Rowe, who is three years removed from his last MLS goal while playing with New England.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Portland opened as slight early favorites, then quickly slid to slight home underdogs. That movement reflects two things:

  1. The Sounders are healthier, in better form and more well-rested than the Timbers.
  2. Home field has mattered less in this fixture than many others over the years.

Five of the Sounders’ 12 wins during the MLS era of this rivalry have come in Portland, and three of the Timbers’ eight victories have come in Seattle. That’s much less of an influence than your typical MLS matchup, which makes sense given the ease of travel between the two cities.

The Timbers remain without their best two attackers from last season and are approaching their fifth match in 16 days. If the Sounders have won on 33% of their trips to Providence Park in the past, you’d expect they’d be likely to exceed that ratio by a sizable margin in these circumstances.

That makes them pretty easy to take at +138 odds, an implied probability of 42%.

Pick: Seattle moneyline (+138)

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