Major League Soccer Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Los Angeles Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls (Sunday, April 25)
Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicharito Hernandez
- A matchup of perennial MLS contenders takes place at Red Bull Arena on Sunday.
- Los Angeles is coming off a thrilling win over Inter Miami, while RBNY lost its opener to Sporting Kansas City.
- Ian Quillen breaks down where he sees betting value in this matchup.
LA Galaxy vs. New York Red Bulls Odds
|LA Galaxy Odds||+118|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-167 / +127)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 5:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
After breaking through for his first multi-goal game in MLS in Week 1, Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez and the LA Galaxy will try to build on that momentum against the New York Red Bulls.
Chicharito twice pulled the Galaxy level after falling behind before Sacha Kljestan’s late strike gave LA the 3-2 win over Miami in manager Greg Vanney’s club debut.
Red Bulls boss Gerhard Struber also made his club (and MLS) debut last weekend, but found himself on the opposite end of a result after his side conceded an early second-half lead in a 2-1 loss to Kansas City.
New York’s Caden Clark scored his side’s lone goal 40 days before his 18th birthday, adding to the two he had in his rookie campaign last fall.
It’s hard to know exactly what to make of LA’s opening victory against a Miami side that has been among the most overvalued on the MLS betting market.
On the one hand, LA appeared to take advantage of Phil Neville waiting too long to turn to his substitute’s bench, even though Neville himself said pregame Miami was lacking fitness.
On the other, Chicharito and the Galaxy looked substantively more dangerous than at many points last season once Vanney subbed on Ethan Zubak and switched to a 4-4-2 early in the second half.
If that tactical adjustment becomes a permanent and effective one, then Sunday’s opening win will have been more than a fortunate comeback, and perhaps even the turning point in Chicharito’s MLS career.
Of the Red Bulls’ nine offseason transactions, only Fabio Roberto Gomes Nietto is listed as a forward.
And despite Clark’s sensational side-footed volley, New York generally played like a club whose attack is still under construction under Struber.
Although they managed 12 shots in Week 1 — six of those coming after going behind — the Red Bulls generated only 0.6 expected goals (xG), according to MLSsoccer.com.
Given that lack of incisiveness, they may welcome the trip West to face a Galaxy side that conceded 46 times in 22 league matches last season, second-worst in MLS.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I bet the Galaxy to win at +148 odds earlier this week (an implied probability of just over 40%), which seemed pretty obvious against a Red Bulls club that had a disjointed home opener and is making a cross-country flight.
Since then, the line has moved in LA’s direction, and the league has issued a two-game suspension to overshadowed-but-influential Galaxy midfielder Sebastian Lletget.
There’s so much roster transition and so little sample size that leaning heavily on any data that applies to these two teams’ in their current form may only add noise. So this is more of a gut play.
The Red Bulls appear an unlikely away winner. But the line movement and team news would have me buying insurance against the draw via a draw-no-bet wager. That gives lower odds on the Galaxy to win, but refunds your money if the match ends tied.
Pick: LA Galaxy — Draw No Bet (-164)
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