West Ham United vs. Everton Premier League Odds & Pick: Betting Value On Sunday’s Over/Under (May 9)

West Ham United vs. Everton Premier League Odds & Pick: Betting Value On Sunday’s Over/Under (May 9) article feature image
Credit:

Alastair Grant – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Tomas Soucek.

  • Surprisingly, West Ham United is still in the thick of the race to secure a spot in the Champions League next year, just five points behind fourth-place Leicester City.
  • Everton won't qualify for the Champions League, but a berth in the Europa League is still in play.
  • With both teams needing the three points, Anthony Dabbundo thinks Sunday's Premier League match could be ripe for plenty of goal scoring.

West Ham vs. Everton Odds

West Ham Odds +114
Everton Odds +245
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings.

West Ham are the biggest overachievers of the 2020-21 season with a legitimate chance at a spot in next year’s Champions League with four matches to go. The Irons will need all three points to chase down Leicester City and keep up with Liverpool.

Everton doesn’t have much of a shot at the top four, but a return to the Europa League could be in their future with a strong finish to the campaign. Both teams are flattered by their current league position by the expected goals numbers, but those same numbers also suggest this could be a high-scoring affair on Sunday in East London.

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West Ham

No team has taken more shots from inside the opponent’s six-yard box than the Hammers this season. West Ham have been excellent on set pieces and crosses because of midfielder Tomas Soucek and forward Michail Antonio. They’ve benefitted from keeping most of their first XI healthy this year, and the midseason addition of Jesse Lingard has added lots of running, pressing and shots into this pretty good Hammers attack.

Antonio, specifically, completely transforms the WHU attack. As noisy as xG on/off splits can be in soccer and in the small sample sizes, this matches up for how different the Hammers attack is. Their expected goal difference with him on the pitch is +0.58 xG per 90 better in the 22 games he has played in, when compared to the 12 he’s missed due to injury or otherwise. And while their attack posted 2.3 xG vs. Arsenal, 1.1 vs Leicester and 1.6 vs. Manchester City of late, they’ve shown that few defenses can truly shut them down.

While the attack has blossomed into a top-six attack, the defense has regressed considerably. Some of it was expected when looking at underlying numbers, but others are injury related. The loss of holding midfielder Declan Rice to injury has hurt their ability to break up play. Issues at center back have led to conceding loads of chances of late. For the year, the Hammers are a middling defense. But in the last eight PL matches, they have allowed 1.73 xGA per match, which is much higher than their year-long average of 1.27.

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Everton

Everton is limping into the finish of the PL season with five matches to play. Their lone win in their last five matches came on a goal that came from a goalkeeper error by Arsenal’s Bernd Leno. A defeat came their last time out to Aston Villa in a game they were thoroughly outplayed. What’s most concerning for the Toffees has been the defense.

They spent most of the season in the top half of the league defensively in most key metrics. By expected goals, they’ve since fallen out of the top 10. They’ve averaged 1.49 xGA per match in their last seven, despite playing Burnley, Crystal Palace and Aston Villa without Jack Grealish.

They’ve conceded at least one expected goal in all but one match (Palace) in the last two months. Since April 1, Everton’s defense has allowed the seventh-most passes completed in its own penalty area. Their pressing numbers have dropped to fourth lowest in passes per defensive action. The Toffees aren’t really gelling offensively, but that can more be explained by disappointing shooting days against Palace, Burnley and Spurs than it can bad offensive play.

The Toffees are still a middling PL attack with a striker in Dominic Calvert-Lewin who has continued to be able to get in behind and finish off chances. He saw a midseason dip in goal scoring after running hot to start the year, but his shot numbers have regressed.


Betting Analysis & Pick

Both teams have been suffering from defensive regression in recent weeks. With both sides needing three points to reach their European goals for next year, this could be an open, attacking game. Each defense is vulnerable to conceding the high-quality chances from in close that the other team has generated plenty of this season.

I’m expecting an open game with plenty of chances and goals, and the total is a bit low according to my projections. My number is 2.75, yet the total sits at 2.5 (-110).

Pick: Over 2.5 goals (-120 or better)

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