Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Manchester United vs. Burnley (Sunday, April 18)

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Manchester United vs. Burnley (Sunday, April 18) article feature image
Credit:

Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Paul Pogba.

  • Manchester United will go up against Burnley on Sunday in a Premier League showdown at Old Trafford.
  • The Clarets haven't completely avoided relegation yet, so they might be motivated against the second-place team in England's top flight.
  • Kieran Darcy breaks down the game and shares his pick based on his analysis below.

Manchester United vs. Burnley Odds

Manchester United Odds -295
Burnley Odds +850
Draw +410
Over/Under 2.5 (-152 / +123)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN
Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The second of two Premier League matches on Sunday features second-place Manchester United hosting 17th-place Burnley.

Manchester United can move to within eight points of league leader Manchester City with a win. But with just six more games remaining after that, it’s highly unlikely it’ll be able to overtake Man City.

Burnley is just one spot above the relegation zone, but it has a seven-point cushion over 18th-place Fulham. There’s still work to do, but Burnley’s chances of being relegated are currently just 7%, according to FiveThirtyEight.

Here’s a closer look at the two clubs, followed by a pick for this match.

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Manchester United

Manchester United has won four straight games if you include the two legs of its Europa League quarterfinal victory over Granada.

The Red Devils won the second leg at home, 2-0, on Thursday, so they’re facing a quick turnaround for this match.

Granada — which sits at eighth in La Liga — actually outshot Manchester United, 11-9, in that second leg. The first leg also finished 2-0, but Manchester United just edged the shot total in that match, 12-11, and scored one of its goals via a penalty.

In between those two matches was Manchester United’s 3-1 win over Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday. Each team finished with 12 shots in that game.

In terms of the underlying numbers, Manchester United is the fourth-strongest team in the Premier League by xG (expected goal) differential (according to FBRef) at +13.0. It’s well below Manchester City (+38.5), Chelsea (+24.4) and Liverpool (+19.8).

Burnley

Burnley has lost its past two matches: a 2-1 loss at home to 15th-place Newcastle last Sunday and a 3-2 defeat at 14th-place Southampton the week before. Not great.

They were very different games, however. Burnley outshot Newcastle, 24-10, last week but was outshot, 23-6, by Southampton the week before.

Prior to that, Burnley had been on a solid run, taking at least a point in six of its previous seven matches, including a 2-1 win at Everton and 1-1 draws with Arsenal and Leicester City, all in March.

Burnley is 17th in the league in xG differential as well at -15.2. But it’s well ahead of the three teams below: Crystal Palace (-23.6), Sheffield United (25.0) and West Brom (-27.1).

Betting Analysis & Picks

The first time these teams met, back on Jan. 12, it was a tight affair.

Manchester United won, 1-0, thanks to Paul Pogba’s 71st-minute volley (which took a deflection off a Burnley defender). Manchester United’s shot edge was only 13-11, and its xG edge was only 1.2 to 0.9.

Manchester United is unbeaten in 16 away games in the league this season but has won eight of its 15 home games. Burnley enters better rested, and this game arguably means more to it because it hasn’t secured safety from relegation yet.

I like Burnley’s chances of at least picking up a point at better than 2-1 on the double chance.

Pick: Double Chance — Burnley or Tie (+230)

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