Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Newcastle United vs. Tottenham Hotspur Preview (April 4)
Tottenham Hotspur FC/Tottenham Hotspur FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Mourinho
- Tottenham Hotspur are heavy favorites against Newcastle on Sunday morning.
- Both teams have plenty to play for as Spurs look to climb into the top-four, while Newcastle are in a relegation scrap.
- Kieran Darcy sizes up the odds and makes a pick for Sunday morning's Premier League tilt.
Newcastle vs. Spurs Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-103 / -121)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9:05 a.m. ET|
|Odds updated Sunday morning and via DraftKings.|
The second of four Premier League matches Sunday features teams in very different positions, but both with lots to play for at this point in the season.
Tottenham entered the weekend in sixth place, trying to climb into the top four and secure a Champions League berth for next season. In contrast, Newcastle is in 17th place in the standings. The hosts are desperate to stay above the drop zone, with the goal of stickingin England’s top flight next season.
Here’s a closer look at these combatants, followed by a prediction.
These are extremely worrying times for Newcastle fans. The Magpies have taken just 28 points from their first 29 matches of the season, sitting just two points above 18th-place Fulham, although they have a game in hand as well.
It’s nearly a coin flip in terms of whether Newcastle will be relegated, according to FiveThirtyEight, which currently gives both it and Fulham a 47% chance of dropping down to the Championship next season.
Newcastle’s most recent match was a very poor performance (a 3-0 defeat to 16th-place Brighton & Hove Albion), in which it mustered just three shots. The Magpies are winless in their past six matches, a stretch that also included losses at Chelsea (2-0) and Manchester United (3-1); and draws with Wolves (1-1), West Bromwich Albion (0-0) and a 1-1 stalemate versus Aston Villa.
Newcastle has the third-worst goal difference in the league at -20, with 28 goals scored and 48 goals conceded. In terms of the underlying numbers, it’s a little better — 15th in the league in expected-goal differential (xGDiff), according to FBRef, at -13.4 in the advanced metric.
Tottenham has taken 48 points from its first 29 matches, putting it one point behind fifth-place West Ham United and three points behind Chelsea. And after Chelsea’s stunning 5-2 loss to West Bromwich Albion on Saturday, the club can move up to fourth place with a win over Newcastle.
Spurs’ most recent result was a 2-0 win at Aston Villa on March 21. Prior to that, they suffered a 2-1 loss at Arsenal, followed by a 3-0 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb that bounced them out of Europa League competition.
It’s been a roller coaster of a season for Tottenham. After losing to Everton in its league opener, it went unbeaten in its next 11 league matches. However, Spurs lost five of six matches between Jan. 28 and Feb. 21.
Now, Spurs have won four of their past five league fixtures. They entered the weekend with a +19 goal difference, tied for fourth-best in the league, alongside Chelsea. However, Spurs’ xGDiff is just +6.1 and puts them eighth in the league.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The first match between these clubs was way back in late September, but the final scoreline was misleading. It finished 1-1, but that was thanks to a controversial Callum Wilson penalty in the 97th minute. Tottenham held a massive edge in shots, finishing with a 23-5 edge in the category.
And, speaking of Wilson …
Newcastle suffer blow with Callum Wilson injury absence set to continue https://t.co/2GnJeazzGM
— The Guardian (@guardian) April 2, 2021
The standout has 10 goals this season, with no other Newcastle player having more than four. And it’s no coincidence this six-match winless streak, during which Newcastle has scored just three goals, has come since Wilson’s injury.
As for Spurs, Son Heung-min has recovered from his injury. Tottenham has also scored 12 goals in its last five league matches, including lopsided home wins over Burnley (4-0) and Crystal Palace (4-1).
That said, I think another result similar to the Burnley and Crystal Palace results is likely to occur.
Pick: Spurs -1.5 (+188)