Serie A Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Inter Milan vs. Lazio (Sunday, Feb. 14)
Alberto Gandolfo/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Antonio Conte.
- Inter Milan can go top of Serie A with a win on Sunday over Lazio.
- The Rome side has been hot of late and is one of the most in-form teams in the Italian top flight, along with Inter.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down why he sees betting value on Inter to take all three points.
Inter Milan vs. Lazio Odds
|Inter Milan Odds||-136|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-152 / +123)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Two of Serie A’s hottest teams will meet on Sunday in the San Siro as Lazio visit Inter Milan.
Even though Lazio have won six consecutive matches in the league, they are overvalued here and the home side is expected to take all three points and move closer toward ending Juventus’ run of league titles.
Inter Milan were seen as the closest title rivals to Juventus to start the season and with Juve and Milan losing on Saturday, this is a great opportunity for Antonio Conte’s side to gain ground and improve their title chances. A win over Lazio puts Inter one point ahead of Milan atop Serie A.
Inter average the highest expected goals (xG) per match and have the best xG difference in Serie A. They also have the highest xG per shot and shortest average distance from the goal in the league.
In addition to those impressive numbers, Inter create the highest quality chances, and despite that, are still barely over performing their expected goals for (xGF) numbers. They have the second most passes completed in the opponents’ penalty area behind only Atalanta.
While Inter’s attack has proven to be potent, their improved defense is what is driving their recent title charge. For all the attention paid to Lazio’s recent form, Inter has allowed 0.4 expected goals per 90 in their last four matches. Their defensive dominance has resulted in three wins and a draw.
Recent form is clouding how good this Lazio team really is. For the season, Lazio is eighth best in Serie A’s expected goal difference table. Their attack is running hot on finishing, especially of late. Even despite their improved performances and six wins on the bounce, Lazio is a step below Inter across the board and my projections reflect that.
Lazio’s xG difference during their six match winning streak has been about +0.8 xG per 90, which is still short of Inter’s numbers for the entire season (+0.96).
Lazio’s attack ranks eighth in passes completed in the final third, eighth in shots per match and eighth in crosses per match. Pretty much every advanced or rudimentary number suggests that Lazio is a step below the rest of the top six in Italy.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Inter is cheap at -136 here at home. My numbers project Inter at -158 and they should roll in this spot, especially off a disappointing two-legged defeat to Juventus in the Coppa Italia semifinals over the past two weeks.
While both teams are in great form, the numbers suggest that Inter’s run is more sustainable and projects better going forward.
Picks: Inter Milan money line (-150 or better)