AP. Pictured: Croatia celebrating a goal vs. Nigeria
Sunday’s World Cup Round of 16 action kicks off with hosts Russia taking on Spain, followed by Croatia-Denmark.
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Here’s a breakdown of the market for both matches and which sides the sharps/public are betting.
Spain vs. Russia (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Spain -161, Russia +541, Draw +304
Odds to Advance: Spain -385, Russia +330
Spain opened -157 to win in regulation and have moved both up (-170) and down (-148) over the last few days. Most of the market currently lists them at -160 and they’ve attracted 70% of all moneyline tickets.
Spain are also a very popular bet on the spread of -1 (+110) with nearly 80% of bets. Even with home-field advantage, Russia aren’t getting much love to pull off the upset. Sharper money hasn’t really weight in on this matchup yet.
The total opened at 2.5 (u-150) and most of the action has been on the over, dropping the juice down to -116.
Spain have an implied probability of ~78% to advance to the quarterfinal, Russia 22%.
Croatia vs. Denmark (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Croatia -118, Denmark +440, Draw +243
Odds to Advance: Croatia -240, Denmark +210
Croatia won all three of their group matches (Nigeria, Argentina, Iceland) and more than 80% of bettors believe they’ll extend that streak to four against Denmark.
Since odds opened, Croatia have moved from -111 to -118, and there’s a great chance that’ll increase at some point.
Just 13% of tickets has come in on Denmark (+444) for the outright upset, and 7% on the draw (+243) which would send the match to extra time.
The low total of 2 goals means public bettors are back on the over, and that’s no surprise given Saturday’s ten-goal eruption from Argentina-France and Uruguay-Portgual. Both those totals were listed at just 2 goals as well.
Croatia has a ~54% chance of winning in regulation but ~70% probability of advancing to the quarterfinal.