Newcastle United vs. Wolves Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Underdog in Friday Premier League Action

Newcastle vs. Wolves Odds

To kick off the weekend's Premier League card, Newcastle United hosts Wolverhampton on Friday in an important match for both clubs.

A victory would give the Magpies a 10-point gap between themselves and the relegation zone, which would likely seal survival with only eight games remaining on their slate.

Meanwhile, Wolves are looking to stay in the hunt for European qualification next season, sitting in eighth place on 49 points.

This should be a close affair with a low game total, but I think the visitors have all of the value heading into this contest.

Howe Deserves Major Credit at Newcastle

Manager Eddie Howe has done a great job leading Newcastle out of the relegation zone and has the club positioned to stay in the English top flight another season.

The Magpies used an unbeaten run of nine league matches from the end of December to the beginning of March to move up the table. However, they have dropped their last three fixtures entering this game.

It doesn’t help that leading scorer Callum Wilson is out injured, especially for a team that has struggled in front of goal.

On the season, Newcastle ranks in the bottom five in the EPL in expected goals per game (0.97) and big scoring chances created (23), per to fbref.com.

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Consistent Defense Paving Way for Wolves

While Wolves have also struggled on offense, their defense has been able to carry them through the season.

Manager Bruno Lage’s team has allowed the fourth-fewest goals (27) in the league, while also ranking in the top half of the standings in opponents’ shots allowed per game (12.55) and big scoring chances surrendered (30) overall.

One key performer has been goalkeeper José Sá, who leads the Premier League in post-shot xG minus goals allowed at +10.7 this season.

A victory would push Wolves into sixth in the table, as they'd  love another opportunity to qualify for the Europa League or the Europa Conference League next season.

BJ Cunningham's EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

When we look at the odds at DraftKings, Newcastle is listed as the +130 moneyline favorite to go with a total of 2.5 goals that's heavily shaded to the under at -170 odds.

That said, I don’t think the Magpies should be this price, which is why I'll back the visitors to pick up a positive result. For that reason, my best bet is to take Wolves on the Asian Handicap line of +0.25 at -105 odds.

One key reason is how Lage’s team has performed away from home. On the campaign, only Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have secured more points on the road than Wolverhampton (26) this season.

Another key selling point is the split in big scoring chances between both teams. Offensively, Wolves rank eighth in the EPL in the metric, while allowing the seventh fewest on the defensive end.

Meanwhile, Newcastle is near the bottom of the league on both sides of the ball. This is going to be very important in a match where the bookmakers do not see many goals being scored.

You also have to wonder if the Magpies already think they're safe from relegation as they've lost their last three matches, including a 5-1 drubbing againstTottenham this past weekend.

When I look at this game, I think Wolves have a great chance of at least picking up a point, so I’m backing them to do so to keep their European qualification hopes alive.

Pick: Wolves +0.25 (-105)

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