We pieced together a much-needed sweep on Wednesday, including one bet on a single-team YRFI that brought the total return to just under three units.
We'll try to keep that momentum into a surprisingly full Thursday slate, with three MLB NRFI/YRFI picks today.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI picks and Major League Baseball model predictions for the big slate on Thursday, May 1.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Picks — May 1, 2025
Royals vs. Rays NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Shane Baz
We tried this bet unsuccessfully on Tuesday, but I'm giving it one more go on Thursday because of a much better pitching matchup.
The Rays' Shane Baz has been one of the game's best pitchers this season, and he's taking on a Royals team that ranks 29th among MLB lineups in wRC+ against righties (74).
There are two sides to this bet, but I feel pretty good about that one.
More of the risk lies on the Rays' side, as they boast a better overall lineup and will be facing a worse overall pitcher.
However, Seth Lugo's first-time-through-the-order ERA is 1.38, and the best Tampa hitters are in the middle of the lineup.
My model is projecting this as even stronger than my "play to" would suggest, but it's somewhat risky if the Rays can reach the middle of the order.
Still, it's a strong play at current market prices and is widely available at -130, in case you can't get the -118 line at BetRivers.
Athletics vs. Rangers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Jeffrey Springs vs. Tyler Mahle
Texas is implied for a solid 4.5 runs today, as they get yet another matchup with an Athletics lefty.
That's driving my projection here, as the top of the Rangers' order is much better against southpaws.
Kevin Pillar has been primarily used as a lefty platoon bat and is hitting .308 against them this season and .281 in his career, and Josh Jung has a career wRC+ of 145 against lefties compared to just 96 against righties.
But the biggest threat is Wyatt Langford, who has a .909 OPS against left-handed pitching since debuting last season.
Plus, Jeffrey Springs brings a 6.04 overall ERA into the contest and has allowed an absurd 15 runs in 10 1/3 innings his first time through the order.
Rockies vs. Giants NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Justin Verlander
Kyle Freeland's splits this year make it obvious what his home ballpark is doing to him. The Rockies lefty has a 5.93 ERA, but all of his ERA predictors are at 3.50 or better.
This makes the location of this game fortunate for him. Oracle Park reduces scoring by about 6% compared to the MLB average, resulting in a total difference of more than 30% between games at Coors Field and Oracle Park.
The Giants are also worse against left-handed pitching, with their wRC+ dropping almost 20 points as a team (from 99 to 80).
On the other side, the Rockies are bad against everyone and have scored just 32 runs in 15 road games this season.
While Justin Verlander isn't what he used to be, his first-time-through-the-order ERA is under 2.00, and this is a dream matchup.
I don't love the juice, but this feels like a reasonably safe bet.
