The first round of the NBA Playoffs resumes with an excellent doubleheader of Game 6s on TNT tonight, with Knicks-Pistons set to tipoff the action at 7:30 p.m. ET, followed by Nuggets-Clippers at 10:00 p.m. ET.
Our staff of basketball betting experts dug into the latest odds and identified 5 NBA picks for tonight's contests. Continue below for our NBA best bets and predictions for Thursday, May 1.
NBA Best Bets for First Round Playoff Games: Thursday, May 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Pistons
Jalen Duren is playing more minutes in the playoffs, which seems to be inflating this line. The uptick in minutes hasn't come with a boost in opportunities.
Duren's usage rate is 9th on the team at 11.8%, down from 16.1% in the regular season. He's averaged just 6.2 shots per game this series. Duren was at seven field goal attempts across 26.1 minutes per game in the regular season.
Duren has averaged exactly 10 points per game in the playoffs, but that mark is inflated by 16 points in Game 3. Tobias Harris was in foul trouble and only took 9 shots, which helped Duren reach 10 attempts.
Harris has been a key cog on offense outside of that game, and Duren has averaged just 8.5 PPG on 5.3 shots in the other four games.
The Knicks seem to keep losing Duren on the offensive glass, which has led to a large chunk of his production. A hefty 40% of Duren's scoring has come via 2nd-chance points. The Knicks allowed the 4th-fewest 2nd-chance points in the regular season, so there's a chance they can get back on track in that department.
If the offensive rebounds dry up, Duren is going to have a tough time getting involved on that end. There's also a chance Isaiah Stewart returns to cut into his playing time.
Pick: Jalen Duren Under 11.5 Points (-105)
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Nuggets vs. Clippers
By Joe Dellera
Ivica Zubac has given the Nuggets fits this series, as he’s one of many centers who have found success against Denver on the offensive side of the floor this season.
Zubac is averaging 20.4 ppg in this series, while exceeding this points prop in 4/5 with a low of 16 points. Last game he scored a series-high 27 points, while getting to the charity stripe 8 times.
Zubac’s scoring is one that the Nuggets will live with. They’ll trade 2s with you every day despite it being fairly efficient for the Clippers.
Zubac has clear volume with 13.2 FGAs and 4.8 FTAs per game. He should be able to clear this line as he likely plays max minutes in a win-or-go-home game for the Clippers.
Pick: Ivica Zubac Over 17.5 Points (-130)
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Nuggets vs. Clippers
Nikola Jokic has gotten the requisite attempts from deep more often than not this series.
He's had, in order, 4, 8, 3, 6, and 4. If four is the baseline, that's OK — obviously you'd prefer more, but Jokic has made two or more threes in three of five and made 42% from deep this season.
The way he was guarded last game was with heavy emphasis, leading to just 13 points on 13 attempts in primarily a distributor role, but it backfired as Jamal Murray exploded for 43 points.
So now what? Do the Clippers try to contain Jokic in that same way? Or do they try a different tactic with their season on the line?
I like Jokic over on threes here because he's getting the attempts, and I'd be surprised if he didn't attempt north of four in this spot, where I'd expect more than 13 total attempts from the field in response to Game 5's low point.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-115)
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Nuggets vs. Clippers
By Joe Dellera
The Nuggets have a chance to close out the series in Game 6 on Thursday night after a dominant effort from Jamal Murray in Game 5.
While Murray’s output is always a bit volatile, Jokic’s is consistent, especially in the Rebounds + Assists (RA) department.
On the season, he averages 23 RA, and in this series he’s recorded 21+ RA in every game. The rebound chances have continued to climb as the series has progressed though, with 20, 35, and 23 in the last three games.
Zubac has given him enough trouble as a scoring threat, and he has been dishing. He’s at double digit dimes in 4/5 with at least 17 potentials in every game.
I’ll grab Jokic over 21.5 RA.
Pick: Jokic Over 21.5 Rebounds + Assists (-125)
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Nuggets vs. Clippers
Taking the Jokic PRA line under is the best way to play a correlated angle of the sharp sides of the market here. The opening line for the spread was Clippers -6 with a lot of expensive 6.5 (-115) or 7s on the board.
