The Denver Nuggets (3-2) and Los Angeles Clippers (2-3) will face off in Game 6 of their first round NBA Playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 10 p.m. ET at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The game will broadcast live on TNT.
The Clippers are 6-point favorites over the Nuggets on the spread, with the over/under set at 212 total points. Los Angeles is a -285 favorite to win outright, while Denver is +230 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions and NBA picks for Thursday, May 1.
Nuggets vs Clippers Prediction, Picks for NBA Playoffs Game 6
The Clippers got into a shootout with the Nuggets in the latest matchup of this series, and lost by a score of 131-115.
I expect Los Angeles to do a much better job of controlling tempo at home in Game 6 tonight by slowing down the pace and making it more of a halfcourt, low-scoring affair.
My Pick: Under 212 (-110)
Nuggets vs Clippers Odds for Thursday, May 1
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 212 -110o / -110u | +230 |
| Clippers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 212 -110o / -110u | -285 |
- Nuggets vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -6
- Nuggets vs. Clippers over/under: 212 total points
- Nuggets vs. Clippers moneyline: Nuggets +230, Clippers -285
- Nuggets vs. Clippers best bet: Under 212 (-110)
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers Preview for Game 6
The Nuggets and Clippers averaged roughly 95 possessions in their previous matchup, which was a high-water mark in a series where the average had been closer to 91 possessions. Denver set the tone from the opening tipoff by racing out to a 35-23 lead in the first quarter.
Thus, the game essentially got away from the Clippers in the early stages, as they found themselves having to play catch-up for almost the entire contest.
Los Angeles had no answers for Jamal Murray, who erupted for a game-high 43 points. Murray's performance was astounding, considering there were questions about his fitness and whether he's even 100% healthy.
You'd have to go back to the 2022-23 season to find the last time Murray finished with a 40-piece. During the bubble playoffs, Murray had four 40-point efforts, with three of them occurring in consecutive games.
Despite his impressive showing, I'm not sure Murray can replicate his performance as the series shifts back to Los Angeles. In a game where Denver never trailed, and led by as many as 22 points, Murray somehow still logged 40 minutes on the court.
He shot 8-for-14 from the perimeter to help the Denver offense go 17-of-33 from three-point range in the contest.
Even Russell Westbrook joined in on the action, sinking 3-of-6 three-point attempts, and his struggles from beyond the arc have been very well-documented.
The Nuggets basically had everything go their way last time out, but I expect some regression toward the mean when they return to a less friendly environment in Game 6 at the Intuit Dome tonight.
The NBA playoffs are often about zigging-and-zagging, and the Clippers' top priority will be to play this game on their terms in order to stave off elimination.
Nuggets vs Clippers Game 6 Best Bet
- Under 212 (-110)
Nuggets vs Clippers Parlay Picks for Thursday Night
- Aaron Gordon Over 19.5 Points + Rebounds
- Under 212
Parlay Payout: +260
Look for Los Angeles to do a much better job guarding the perimeter following Denver's prodigious efforts in the previous game.
Therefore, Game 6 could reflect more of an interior battle, which would suit Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon.
Gordon has a points + rebounds prop of 19.5, a number he has cleared in eight straight games and his last six meetings against the Clippers.
His prop line is slightly below his season average of 19.95, but if we look at his recent form over these last eight games, he's averaging 26.1 points + rebounds with a median of 24.5.
Gordon tends to fly under the radar because opposing teams strategize on how to stop Nikola Jokic and Murray.
He's also had to pick up the slack for Michael Porter Jr., who is having an abysmal postseason, averaging 11.2 points, which is quite a dropoff from his production in the regular season (18.2 points).
Jokic's numbers (29.6 to 25.1) are also slightly down due to constant double teams, while Ivica Zubac is one of the few players who has the size to defend Jokic 1-on-1 when necessary.
As a result, Jokic is distributing the ball more, and Gordon offers an option to attack the opposition from the weak side.
Despite my projection for a lower-scoring game, this remains a favorable matchup for Gordon to exceed his points + rebounds prop.
Combining both options provides solid odds of +260 on a same game parlay.
- 71% of bets and 75% of the money are on the Nuggets to cover the spread
- 43% of bets and 70% of the money on the moneyline are on the Nuggets to win outright
- 93% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NBA public betting & money percentages page.
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