The Philadelphia Phillies host the Washington Nationals on May 1, 2025. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The Phillies enter as -175 favorites with the over/under sitting at 9.5.
Find my MLB betting preview and Nationals vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction, Picks
- Nationals vs Phillies Pick: Over 9.5 (-115 · Play to -125)
My Nationals vs Phillies best bet is both teams to go over the total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Nationals vs Phillies Odds, Spread, Lines
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -143 | 9.5 -118o / -104u | +148 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +117 | 9.5 -118o / -104u | -175 |
Nationals vs Phillies Projected Pitchers
| RHP Brad Lord (WSN) | Stat | RHP Taijuan Walker (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | W-L | 1-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 4.67 / 5.71 | ERA /xERA | 2.78 / 3.94 |
| 4.06 / 4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05 / 4.40 |
| 1.73 | WHIP | 1.37 |
| 5.1 | K-BB% | 10 |
| 39.9 | GB% | 41.8 |
| 84 | Stuff+ | 94 |
| 95 | Location+ | 100 |
Nationals vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Washington Nationals Betting Preview
Right-hander Brad Lord takes the mound as the starting pitcher for the Washington Nationals and should serve as a good fade candidate.
Through seven appearances this season, Lord is 0-3 with a 4.67 ERA and 1.73 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even worse, considering that the right-hander has posted a 5.71 xERA and ranks in the 26th percentile or lower among qualified MLB pitchers in xBA allowed, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
These woes are likely to continue against the Philadelphia Phillies, a team he appeared in relief against on March 30. In that outing, Lord couldn't even record an out before surrendering two walks, a hit and a run.
Following Lord is arguably the worst bullpen in baseball. Among MLB bullpens, Washington's relief staff ranks 30th in ERA, 29th in FIP, 28th in xFIP, and 29th in WAR.
The good news for this pitching staff is that the Nationals' lineup can power it up, given that they rank in the top half of the league in both slugging and home runs.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Washington's power is likely to generate runs against right-hander Taijuan Walker, who gets the ball for Philadelphia.
Walker's 2.78 ERA is misleading relative to his performance this season.
Despite escaping some difficult situations, Walker has posted a 1.37 WHIP and 3.94 xERA. This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Nationals, a team against whom Walker has a 4.39 ERA over the past five meetings.
Like Lord, Walker is followed by a poor bullpen. This season, the Phillies rank 27th among MLB teams in reliever ERA.
Also like Lord, Walker can expect some solid run production. Entering this matchup, Philadelphia ranks in the top 12 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, batting average, OBP, and OPS.
Nationals vs Phillies Pick, Best Bets
All the variables in this matchup suggest a high-scoring affair.
Lord is a well-below-average pitcher, while Walker is due for regression. Meanwhile, both bullpens rank in the bottom four of the league in ERA.
That leaves the hitting. Washington is an above-average power-hitting squad, while Philadelphia ranks highly in nearly every category across the board.
The over is 8-1 over the past nine meetings between these two teams, so I'll bank on more of the same.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-115 · Play to -125)
