For my Thursday MLB player props, I'll be looking into earned runs plays for a pair of starting pitchers and backing a pair of hot Boston hitters.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Thursday, May 1.
MLB Prop Picks — Thursday, May 1st
- Matthew Liberatore Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-115, DraftKings)
- Zac Gallen Over 2.5 Earned Runs (- 105, DraftKings)
- Alex Bregman/Jarren Duran One Hit Parlay (-115, Fanatics)
Cardinals vs Reds Player Props: Liberatore to Keep Reds in Check
On Monday, the Reds took the first game of this series and improved to 12-8 over their past 20 games. However, after a postponement on Tuesday, the Cardinals swept a doubleheader yesterday and will go for the series victory this afternoon.
The Reds have scored four runs through the first three games of this series and will face Matthew Liberatore, who's been red-hot of late.
Liberatore enters today's outing with a 3.19 ERA, but it's only that high because he allowed eight runs in his first two starts. Since then, he's gone under this line in each of his last three starts, allowing three runs total over 18 2/3 innings.
Liberatore can partially attribute his early success this season to his impeccable control. He's issued just two walks this season and he ranks in the 99th percentile in walk rate.
Liberatore hasn't started against the Reds yet in his career, but in 7 2/3 innings of relief against them, he has a 1.17 ERA with just two hits allowed and seven strikeouts.
He may find continued success against them on Thursday, considering that Reds hitters enter the game just 3-for-18 against them. One hitter he'll have to keep off base is Elly De La Cruz, but against the left-handed Liberatore, De La Cruz will bat from his weaker side.
I'm also interested in his outs considering he's completed six innings in each of his first five starts and the Cardinals just played a doubleheader.
However, that prop is unavailable for him as of this writing.
If Liberatore can keep De La Cruz in check, I like his chances of limiting the Reds' offense and allowing fewer than three runs for the fourth straight start.
Diamondbacks vs Mets Player Props: Mets Batters Could Trouble Gallen
Zac Gallen has recorded 12.2 WAR over his last three seasons, but he has some work to do to get that level this season. He's 1-4 with a 5.57 ERA through his first six starts. He has 15 walks in 32 1/3 innings and that's contributed to a 10.5% walk rate and 1.39 WHIP.
Gallen has allowed three runs in four of his first six starts and now faces a Mets team that's tied for the best record in the MLB. The Mets are ninth in the MLB in runs scored this season and are averaging 5.7 runs over their last 10 games.
Gallen has struggled against left-handed hitters, surrendering nine extra base hits (three home runs) and .940 OPS against them thus far. That means Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil could take advantage today.
Lindor is 3-for-10 with a double against Gallen. Right-handed slugger Pete Alonso is 4-for-14 with a double against him. This season, he's hitting for average (.343) to match his usual power with seven homers, 28 runs batted in and a 1.132 OPS.
When Lindor and Alonso are both on, the Mets are tough to handle. They should help the Mets get at least three earned runs off Gallen today.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays Player Props: Bregman and Duran Still Red Hot
Speaking of hot offenses, the Red Sox have scored six runs in each of their last four games. Two hitters that have been leading the way are Alex Bregman and Jarren Duran.
Bregman enters Thursday's game with a 10-game hitting streak, which has pushed his average up to .328, seventh-best in the MLB. He also has seven home runs, 28 runs batted in and is fifth in the MLB with a .985 OPS.
Bregman will face Jose Berrios on Thursday and the two have won their share of battles. Bregman is 7-for-29 (.241) with two doubles, two home runs and five runs batted in against Berrios.
Duran, on the other hand, has given Berrios fits. The Red Sox center fielder is 9-for-18 with five doubles, three home runs, five runs batted in and a 1.778 OPS against Berrios.
He's been hot as well, as he has a hit in 15 of his last 16 games. In that span, he's hitting .324 with nine extra base hits, five runs batted in and 11 runs scored.
Berrios is surrendering a .256 opposing batting average to left-handed hitters and a .265 opposing batting average to right-handed hitters, so he's a solid matchup for Duran and Bregman.
With how productive Boston has been offensively of late, they're each getting about five plate appearances per game. If that's the case once again, I expect each of them to get at least one hit.
