It's Thursday in Major League Baseball, which means a smaller 10-game slate. Still, I'm all over the MLB home run props market in search of value HR picks.
I'm on two players to go deep on Thursday, including Bobby Witt Jr. for the Royals and Rafael Devers for the Red Sox.
Continue below for my four MLB home run prop bets and parlay picks for Thursday, May 1
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds Today — 5/1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Home Run Picks for May 1
Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run (+425)
vs. Rays (SP: RHP Shane Baz)
Shane Baz isn’t an easy matchup for Bobby Witt Jr.
However, Baz is an MLB-average matchup for right-handed power hitters, and these home run odds for Witt don’t reflect that.
Witt is among the best right-handed hitters in baseball and boasts well above-average power numbers.
Witt also gets a ballpark upgrade in Tampa Bay, and the weather report is shaping up to be hitter-friendly, with temperatures in the mid-80s and good humidity — the ball should be flying.
Witt only has two home runs on the season, but he’s due for some positive regression on that front.
I make the fair odds on this prop under +400, giving us plenty of value at the current market price.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+325)
vs. Blue Jays (SP: RHP Jose Berrios)
Rafael Devers has been a relative disappointment so far this season (119 wRC+), but the underlying numbers are too good to ignore.
He’s hammering the ball and should see some positive regression soon. For context, he has roughly the same barrel rate (23%) as Aaron Judge but only five homers to show for it.
Devers also has a good matchup against Jose Berrios. The righty allows plenty of homers to lefties (1.44 per nine innings pitched against the side) and has only regressed in recent seasons.
I make the fair odds on this home run prop under +300, giving us plenty of value at the current market price.
