Reds vs. Brewers Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, August 27)
Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Sonny Gray of the Cincinnati Reds.
Reds vs. Brewers Betting Odds
|Reds Odds||-129 [Bet Now]|
|Brewers Odds||+110 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||6 (-109/-112) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||5:10 p.m. ET|
Cincinnati and Milwaukee are scheduled to play a doubleheader Thursday after their Wednesday matchup was postponed in response to the social-injustice issues that have gripped the country.
The Reds (11-17), who trail the Brewers by two games for third place in the National League Central Division, have been underwhelming so far this season. In the offseason, Cincinnati spent $165 million on free-agent acquisitions, but that investment hasn’t really translated into a higher win percentage for the Queen City ball club.
What has probably given them the best chance to win ballgames has been giving the ball to Sonny Gray every fifth day. Since the pitcher joined the Reds, they’re 23-14 in his starts and their backers have added +8.4 units to the bankroll.
The Reds are currently mired in a three-game losing streak and turn to Gray in the opener, with the hope he can help put a stop to the bleeding.
One has to wonder about the psyche of the Milwaukee clubhouse given its boycott of Wednesday’s game to drawn attention to the events that took place in their home state.
Given these understandable distractions, I’m not sure if this is a team that’s ready to take the field again at this moment.
Milwaukee will give the ball to Adrian Houser in the first game of the doubleheader. Houser has started twice against the Reds, with each outing taking place on the road. This will be a rematch of last season when Houser faced Gray in a 4-2 Brewers win.
This season, Houser is 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA. However, he is winless his last three starts with an 0-2 record and 5.82 ERA. His 4.75 FIP is higher than his ERA suggests, so there could be some regression in his future. Part of that could be down to his 3.10 BB/9 ratio and the challenge he’d have to face to generate enough strikeouts to overcome them. Right now, his strikeout ratio is a modest 6.52 K/9 innings.
What Houser has been able to do successfully is generate an impressive 4.58 GB/FB ratio. Per Baseball Savant, he’s been able to accomplish much of this by using a hard sinker which he throws 44.5% of the time. Batter’s are only hitting .145 against this pitch but it’s when he throws his other mix of pitches that’s when he’s most vulnerable.
Houser throws his four seamer 19% of the time; slider 13% of the time; changeup 12.3% of the time; and, curveball 10.8% of the time. As a whole, batters are hitting at least .273 on his secondary pitches. This is where pitch selection and identification becomes key for the batter. He’ll need to be efficient against a Cincinnati team that has done a good job in taking first base as they’re in the top 5 of baseball with 11.1% walks drawn.
Gray is no doubt the ace of the Reds staff. He’s already picked up four wins on the season against one loss and has a 2.21 ERA, as well as a WHIP under 1 at 0.98. His predictive numbers are also outstanding. He sports a 2.67 FIP along with a 3.19 SIERA.
Gray has already faced Milwaukee once this season and in that start the Reds took a 2-1 lead into the sixth inning, but allowed a six runs in that frame and never regained their footing from there.
Tonight’s matchup is a great spot for Gray to bounce back.
He has tremendous numbers against Milwaukee with a very representative sample size. In 128 at-bats, the Brewers are only hitting .188 against him with a paultry 2.53 wOBA and 2.89 SLG. He’s gotten into a little trouble with the walks as he’s allowed 14 walks against them. But when your strikeout per nine innings ratio is 12.52, some things can be forgiveable. Mix that with a 1.71 GB/FB ratio and you’ve got a special pitcher on your hands.
If your team is on a losing streak, Gray is the guy you want on the mound. As a starter facing a losing streak of three or more games, Gray’s teams are 12-7 in those spots with a return of +5.05 units.
With the Reds, he’s 5-0 in this exact spot for 5.32 units. With Wade Miley pitching in the the second game of the doubleheader, the Reds know this is a game they’ve got to win.
I’d expect a max-effort performance out of Cincinnati and who knows where Milwaukee’s heads will be come game time. I think the Reds are reasonably priced and DraftKings is offering them up at -129.
I’ll go with Gray, the streak stopper, to get the road win in the first game of the doubleheader.
The Bet: Reds ML -129 (Play up to -136) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]