The Kansas City Royals host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 17, 2025. First pitch from Kauffman Stadium is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSKC.
Read my Cardinals vs Royals predictions and picks below.
My Cardinals vs Royals Prediction
- Cardinals vs Royals Picks: Under 8.5 (+100, Fanatics)
My Cardinals vs Royals best bet is on the Under. Check our live MLB odds page to find the best odds.
Cardinals vs Royals Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -100 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8.5 -120o / -100u | -120 |
Tanner McGrath’s Cardinals vs Royals Preview
The Royals have been struggling at the plate this season.
They rank 27th among MLB lineups in wRC+ (82). Bobby Witt Jr. is playing at his typical level (149 wRC+). Still, Jonathan India can’t get anything going out of the leadoff spot (88 wRC+), Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are showing flashes of power but can’t get on base (combined .264 OBP), and the bottom of the lineup is a mess.
I’ve never been the biggest fan of Cardinals starting pitcher Miles Mikolas, but he’s a two-to-three fWAR pitcher who should be able to hold his own against Kansas City’s downtrodden lineup.
The Royals haven’t announced a starting pitcher yet, and the Cardinals have been white-hot at the plate (127 wRC+ over the past two weeks).
However, I’m still on the Under, for three reasons.
First, I don’t mind either bullpen. The Royals and Cardinals rank among the league’s top half in reliever fWAR. These are also two above-average defensive teams, especially St. Louis, which ranks sixth among MLB teams in Defensive Runs Saved (+22).
Second, the weather should be relatively pitcher-friendly, with RotoGrinders’ Weather Tool projecting a -3.2% Total Runs Factor behind a -5.5% Home Run factor.
Third, and most importantly, this game has lit up one of our PRO betting systems, Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams.
In regular-season MLB games between two winning teams when the public is heavily favoring the Over (over 65% of the bets), Unders are 1749-1534-149 since 2005, hitting at a 53.3% rate and producing a 3.9% ROI.
Royals games are 29-16-1 to the Under this season. I’ll bank on more of the same for Saturday’s matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+100, Fanatics)
