For Saturday, May 17, I'm on four MLB home run props: Oneil Cruz (against the Phillies), James Wood and CJ Abrams (against the Orioles), and Gunnar Henderson (against the Nationals).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Saturday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, May 17
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
| 6:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for May 17
Gunnar Henderson (+350)
vs Nationals (SP: RHP Jake Irvin)
I don't know what is going on with the books today, but the HR value on the Nationals–Orioles game is wild.
The weather in the game is fantastic for hitting with wind blowing out and temperatures near 90 degrees, which should be a massive boost for power hitters.
Nationals right-hander Jake Irvin has been an absolute gas can in his career for left-handed hitters, giving up 1.81 HR/9.
Gunnar is one of the best HR hitters in the league and we aren't going to find a much better spot for him today.
I have the true odds for him today around +250.
James Wood (+450)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Kyle Gibson)
We don't have a huge sample size on Orioles starter Kyle Gibson this year, but he's been absolutely crushed early with a massive 5.4 HR/9 through three starts.
He will regress toward the mean, but there might be something wrong with him at the moment and he grades out as a well above average matchup.
James Wood is a big power bat and is having an incredible year.
I have the true odds on Wood around +300.
CJ Abrams (+425)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Kyle Gibson)
Nationals infielder CJ Abrams is having a solid year at the moment with six home runs.
Camden Yards is great for lefty power and as I stated above, the hitting conditions are fantastic today.
The matchup is a good one against Gibson, who's given up more HRs than anyone in the league on a per-start basis.
I have the true odd on Abrams around +350.
Oneil Cruz (+430)
at Phillies (SP: RHP Zack Wheeler)
Oneil Cruz gets a tough matchup against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler, but the odds and spot are too good to pass up.
Wheeler is a great pitcher, but he is only slightly below average against left-handed power hitters.
Citizens Bank Park is a big upgrade for Cruz and the weather is a massive upgrade to power hitters today with WeatherEdge giving it close to a 50% boost to HRs.
Cruz has more power than probably anyone in the majors and I have his true odds around +350.
