Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Tuesday, August 25)

Rockies vs. Diamondbacks Odds

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On Monday night, the Colorado Rockies ended their seven-game skid after getting six strong innings from rookie pitcher Ryan Castellani in a gutty 3-2 win over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Yesterday, I discussed the progress the right-hander made in his last start by pitching into the sixth inning for the first time in the big leagues and how the next step in his natural progression would be picking up his first major league win.

Castellani’s win meant a sixth straight loss for the Diamondbacks. They’ll look to left-hander Alex Young to try to stop the bleeding tonight.

The Diamondbacks have actually alternated wins and losses in Young’s last six appearances. His most recent appearance for the Diamondbacks was a 5-1 loss. If the recent pattern holds then Arizona would be in line for a win tonight. While there’s no real empirical evidence to support this reasoning, the Diamondbacks would likely welcome anything that offers a glimmer of hope.

And with a 3-0 record against the Rockies in his career, Young seems ready to to provide that hope.

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies will look to make it two in a row with German Marquez on the mound. Marquez is 2-4 with a 4.38 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. His last start was a 10-8 loss at home to the Houston Astros where he got roughed up for 10 runs in five innings of work.

Outside of that start, each of Marquez’s other five outings resulted in quality starts, though he’s been on the wrong side of the decision in his last three games.

Opponents are hitting .255 against him but .318 on balls puts in to play. That lower batting average against by hitters is helped by an 8.51 K/9 ratio, which is something he can directly impact. The higher average of when balls are put in play is something that is less within his control, which lends credence to the belief that he’s been a bit unlucky.

Marquez may need to wait until he’s out of Arizona before things can turn around. In his career he’s 3-5 against the Diamondbacks with a 4.54 ERA in 15 appearances. In 146 at-bats, Arizona’s current lineup has a slash line of .342 BAA/.386 OBP/.582 OPS along with six home runs and 27 RBIs.

Those kinds of numbers would keep any pitcher up at night and my guess is that Marquez won’t be too excited to step on the mound against this group tonight.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Young is set to make his third start of the season. He’s 1-1 on the year with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. After starting the season in the bullpen, the Diamondbacks have looked to stretch him out and he’s responded by going at least four innings in each of his last two starts.

In his most recent outing, he gave up three runs in four innings while allowing two home runs. That contributed to his 3.0 HR/9 ratio and has also led to a high FIP, which sits at 6.02. Outside of that his numbers are pretty good when you consider his 3.55 xFIP and 3.52 SIERA.

He has a 9.50 K/9 ratio along with a 1.53 GB/FB ratio. Batters are hitting only .236 against him with a .234 BABIP. This tells me that if Young can just keep the ball in the park, he has a real good chance for success — and against the Rockies he seems to be able to do just that. In 39 at-bats, Rockies hitters have hit just one home run against him and have a slash rate of .231 BAA/.250 OBP/.385 SLG.

Betting Analysis

Let’s get right to it. I don’t like to get giddy about bets, but there are a lot of data points in favor of the Diamondbacks tonight.

We can start with Young’s perfect 3-0 record against Colorado or the Rockies’ poor hitting numbers when facing him or the Diamondbacks’ dominance of Marquez or even the fact that the Diamondbacks have alternated wins and losses in Young’s last six appearances with the last one being a loss.

OK, I know the last one isn’t a concrete data point but I’m leaving it in as as a qualitative opinion. Hopefully you’re getting the point that everything just seems to point to a Diamondbacks win tonight.

Colorado got its win yesterday so the proverbial monkey is off its back and has now found companionship in the Diamondbacks clubhouse.

If you’re still unsure here’s a few nuggets I managed to dig up.

Dating back to June 25, 2004, when Arizona is on a six-game losing streak it’s 18-11 for +9.08 units in its next game. If we go back a decade to July 29, 2010, Arizona is 13-3 for +11.58 units and when the next game is at home.

If that’s not enough to convince you then nothing will.

Let’s not delay any further. I’m taking the Diamondbacks to end the losing streak at six games tonight.

The Bet: Diamondbacks (-112) [Bet now at BetMGM and get a $500 INSTANT deposit match]

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