MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Padres, 2 Other Monday Games
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian Yelich and Jesus Aguilar
- Wiseguys are back to the grind and have gotten down on 3 MLB games tonight, headlined by Astros-Reds (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Phillies-Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
The weekend is over and it’s back to grind for sharps and squares alike. Hockey and basketball have come to an end (aside from the WNBA) and we are officially entering the dog days of summer. Many consider this time of year “Gambler’s Vacation,” where bettors take time off to rest, rejuvenate and prepare for the upcoming football season.
But there are no days off for the die-hard MLB grinders. If you can believe it, the season is only about 43% of the way done. And sharps will be getting down until the bitter end.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Philadelphia Phillies (39-32) @ Washington Nationals (33-38)
7:05 p.m. ET | Jake Arrieta (6-5, 4.31 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (5-5, 4.11 ERA)
One of the best pieces of advice sharps could ever give a new bettor: If it looks too good to be true, it almost always is. And if a line stinks, there’s a reason behind it.
This NL East showdown in the nation’s capitol is a perfect example. Why are the Nationals, who have a much worse record than the Phillies, such a big favorite? The books are so stupid! Hammer that Philly plus-money!
This game opened with Washington listed at -130 and Philadelphia +120. Currently, 58% of bets are grabbing the Phils at a juicy price, yet the line has actually moved further toward the Nats (-130 to -143).
What caused this peculiar line movement?
Follow the money.
The Nats are getting only 42% of bets but 72% of dollars, a clear indication that the big smart money wagers from pro bettors are in their favor. We also saw sharps crush the Nats at -123, which kicked off the big reverse line movement in their direction.
This “fade the trendy dog” spot has been a big moneymaker for the sharps this season. According to our Bet Labs Database, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 94-62 (60.3%) in 2019, winning 13.99 units with a 9% return on investment.
The pitching matchup also provides a big edge to the Nats. Philly is 32-20 against right-handed starters, but only 7-12 against lefties like Corbin.
Sharp angle: Nationals (moved from -130 to -143)
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
7:10 p.m. ET | Wade Miley (6-3, 3.14 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (6-1, 2.31 ERA)
This play is so sharp that wiseguys cut their fingers on the bet slip walking back from the betting window.
The Astros are a powerhouse. Anytime they take the field, the public backs them in overwhelming fashion. However, they are rarely a road dog getting plus-money and almost never see the line go away from them.
This interleague showdown is the most heavily bet game of the night. The Reds opened at short -115 home favorites and the Astros a +106 underdog. Despite 74% of bets backing Houston, the line has actually moved away from the Astros (+106 to +111) and toward the Red Legs (-115 to -119).
In situations like this, nine times out of a ten the line will move toward a team like the Astros, with the books forcing bettors to pay a more expensive price to back the popular side.
The fact that the line went toward the unpopular side speaks volumes. And this sort of movement is caused only by sharp money from pro bettors.
We’ve tracked three separate reverse line moves on Cincy at -110, -115 and -120 across the market, without a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Houston.
Since 2005, non-division home favorites receiving less than 45% of bets with reverse line movement have won 59.3% of their games for +78.31 units.
An added edge for sharps sweating the Reds: Luis Castillo has been nearly untouchable at home this season, going 3-1 with a 1.87 ERA.
Sharp angle: Reds (moved from -115 to -120)
Milwaukee Brewers (40-31) @ San Diego Padres (35-37)
10:10 p.m. ET | Jhoulys Chacin (3-7, 5.74 ERA) vs. Joey Lucchesi (4-4, 4.11 ERA)
Casual bettors fall in love with win-loss records. Always back the “better” team, especially if they’re an underdog. But wiseguys have been in the game so long they know this line of thinking isn’t profitable.
If backing the “better” team was profitable, Average Joes would become millionaires and sportsbooks would go bankrupt. There’s a reason why the house always wins.
This game opened with the Padres listed as short -118 home favorites and the Brewers a +109 home underdog. Currently 65% of bets are backing the Beermakers, but the line has barely budged.
This is an example of a sharp line freeze, with sportsbooks refusing to push the line toward the popular side because they have liability on the unpopular side and do not want to hand out a better number to sharps.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed pro bettors get down hard on San Diego at -114 and twice more at -119.
The Fathers, who just came off an epic series against Colorado in which they set a runs record and clawed back from several big deficits to secure a pair of wins, are receiving only 36% of bets but 51% of dollars, further evidence of smart money in their favor.
Milwaukee is a great home team (22-13) and loves facing righties (30-21), but have been the definition of average on the road (18-18) and against lefties (10-10) like Luchessi.
Sharp angle: Padres (stayed at -119)