MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/17: Can Padres Rally for Another Win vs. Brewers?

Jun 17, 2019 4:18 PM EDT
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on June 17 with his model below and highlights Padres-Brewers (10:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Over bets on Sunday finished 10-4-1, and now stand at 523-494-46 (51%) on the season. They cashed less than 49% of the time between 2017 and 2018.

Nearly 70 games into the 2019 season, the league is averaging 4.75 runs per game and 1.35 home runs per game, 7% and 17% higher than in 2018.

Take a look at how per-game run production and prevention in the league has tracked dating back to 2015:

A confluence of factors are causing these changes, some related to strategy, and others likely related to the baseball itself.

Fewer balls in play and the ability to shift players defensively presents an opportunity to fit additional sluggers into your lineup. Just look at how the Brewers use Mike Moustakas (21 HR, .937 OPS) at second base.

Batters are also hitting more flyballs than ever, and taking advantage of advanced technologies in order to optimize their swings.

But we also had complaints throughout 2017 that the ball was behaving differently. MLB later confirmed that it had changed the ball. 

That suspicious ball might be back this season after reduced offense in 2018. And after introducing the major-league ball at Triple-A this season, they’re quietly smashing home run records in the minors, too.

We saw the Mariners break or tie various home run records early this season, and the Padres and Rockies just combined for a record 92 runs in a four-game series; surpassing a mark for most runs in a series that had stood since 1929.

At this point, it’s hard to argue with the fact that the run environment is a bit different.

Like major leaguers, all we can do is continue to make adjustments based upon the information we have.


Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-7 against full-game moneylines and 1-3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).

My plays went 1-5, and I finished down 2.18 units for the day.

It was a mixed day in terms of Closing Line Value (CLV). 

I gained 19 cents overall against moneylines and spreads, gaining as much as 28 cents against Oakland’s moneyline (-129 to -157), but losing 14 cents against Detroit’s moneyline (+151 to +165).

One under that I played moved from 9.5 to 9.0 (New York/Chicago, but another moved from 12.5 to 13.0. That being said, the latter (San Diego/Colorado) took professional action at both numbers.

MLB Betting Model for Monday, June 17

All odds as of Monday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Monday.

Today, the model recommends two full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).

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