MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Indians, Nationals-Padres Thursday Night

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Indians, Nationals-Padres Thursday Night article feature image
Credit:

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Padres teammates Josh Naylor, Wil Myers, Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.

  • Wiseguys have identified an edge on two Thursday night games: Twins-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Nationals-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze where the smart money is falling for both games.

Wiseguys didn’t get the results they were hoping for yesterday, going 1-2 with their Wednesday plays. Baseball can be the best — but most frustrating — sport to bet. With so many games, there are countless opportunities for sharps to maximize their edge. But baseball can also be highly unpredictable.

For example, favorites have won 57.4% of their games from 2005 to 2018, but due to the expensive prices, they’ve lost -662.79 units. However, this season favorites have won 60% of their games, winning +19.52 units.

Sharps know regression is coming and dogs will eventually bark again. Until then, they’ll just have to keep grinding it out.

After analyzing Thursday’s getaway day 13-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.


>> All odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Indians

Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.27 ERA) vs. Trevor Bauer (4-5, 3.98 ERA)

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Indians (stayed at -110)

The Indians (31-30) have taken the first two games of this AL Central three-game set. Public bettors say the Twins (40-20) are the better team with their ace on the mound and have to win today.

But sharps aren’t taking the Gambler’s Fallacy bait. They’re buying low on the streaking Tribe to finish off the three-game sweep.

This game opened with Cleveland listed as a short -110 home favorite and Minnesota a +101 underdog. Currently 75% of bets are backing the Twins, yet we’ve seen the line remain frozen at its opening price.

Normally, oddsmakers will adjust the line toward the popular side in order to limit their liability and entice betting the opponent so they can mitigate risk.

Any time you see the line refuse to budge despite heavily lopsided action, you know books are scared of sharps backing the unpopular side.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Tribe, further evidence of pros fading the trendy dog.

This spot has been a big moneymaker for the sharps. According to our Bet Labs database, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of moneyline bets) have gone 84-53 (61.3%), winning +15.12 units with an 11% return on investment (ROI) this season. The Cubs cashed in this exact scenario last night.

Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

Patrick Corbin (75-3, 3.46 ERA) vs. Joey Luchessi (3-3, 3.96 ERA)

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (7.5)

Recreational bettors are relatively split on this over/under. They see a low total and automatically lean over. But they also see two stud lefties facing off and think low-scoring game.

Sharps have been far more decisive and taken a clear position.

This total opened at 7.5 with even juice on both sides. Currently 52% of bets are taking the over, indicating an ever-so-slight public lean. However, the over is also accounting for a whopping 88% of the money. This massive bet vs. dollar split indicates heavy smart money from pro players sweating the over.

We’ve also tracked a trio of steam and reverse line moves on the over, with no conflicting plays (or buyback) on the under.

This spot has also cashed bigly for wiseguys this season, as low total (between 7 and 8) non-division overs have gone 95-67 (57.6%), winning +23.33 units with a 13.8% ROI since Opening Day.