MLB Tuesday Forecast: How to Bet Warm-Weather Games

MLB Tuesday Forecast: How to Bet Warm-Weather Games article feature image
Credit:

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Coors Field.

  • Nine of Tuesday's 15 games are sporting average temperatures of at least 80 degrees.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we looked at how similar games have fared from a betting perspective in the past.

The Fourth of July is practically here and summer weather has burst onto the scene. On Tuesday, nine of the 15 MLB games are set to have average temperatures above 80 degrees and there are zero day games!

With the warm weather showing up in bunches, I figured it’d be a good time to show you how over/unders have done at specific temperature thresholds. Most of us know that the ball flies farther as the temperature goes up, but that includes oddsmakers. Using Bet Labs, let’s see if they’ve been able to keep up with the thermometer.

Over/Under History

  • Overall: 49.3% over win rate
  • Below 80 degrees: 48.9%
  • 80+: 50.9%
  • 85+: 50.8%
  • 90+: 51.3%
  • 100+: 52.7%

If you like overs, you’re going to like warm weather. As you can see, the unders do have a bit of an edge overall and that’s slightly more exaggerated in games that average less than 80 degrees. A temperature reading above 80 degrees is not, however, a reason to blindly bet on the over. Though the winning percentage is 2% higher at 80+ degrees than it is at <80 degrees, it’s still not profitable.

What I will say about betting these warm overs is that you generally want to bet them early. We have 7,064 games on record with temperatures of 80 degrees or higher and only 1,248 (17.7%) of them have had totals fall from open to close. Meanwhile, 1.759 (24.9%) have had totals rise from open to close.

Of the 28,177 games with temperatures below 80 degrees, 7,157 (25.4%) have had totals drop from open to close, while just 4,347 (15.4%) have gone up.

You’re more likely to get a better number betting overs early in warm games and unders early in other situations, which can of course boost your win rate in the long haul.

Warm Tuesday Games

  • Phillies-Braves: 89 degrees, O/U 9.5
  • Marlins-Nats: 87 degrees, O/U 9
  • Brewers-Reds: 87 degrees, O/U 10.5
  • Angels-Rangers: 87 degrees O/U 10.5
  • Cubs-Pirates: 84 degrees, O/U 9
  • Yankees-Mets: 83 degrees, O/U 9
  • Indians-Royals: 83 degrees, O/U 9
  • Tigers-White Sox: 83 degrees, O/U 9
  • Astros-Rockies: 80 degrees, O/U 13

All of the warm games today range between 80 and 89 degrees, so we don’t have any true scorchers on our plate just yet. Most of the over/unders are on the high side, though, with Coors Field (obviously) taking the cake. In fact, Coors Field is sporting a perfect Weather Rating of 100 today, marking the second time this season that we’ve seen a perfect rating per FantasyLabs Trends Tool.

The second-highest Weather Rating belongs to the Tigers-White Sox game at 79. A 9-mph breeze blowing to left field should further help fly balls sail over the fence. All of the other games still have well-above average ratings, though, with the worst of the bunch (Indians-Royals) still boasting a 74.

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