The Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox continue their interleague series on Saturday, July 26, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on FOX.
Find my MLB betting preview and Dodgers vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Dodgers Pick, Prediction
- Red Sox vs Dodgers picks: Red Sox Moneyline (-140 Bet365) & Red Sox -1.5 (+150 Bet365)
My Dodgers vs Red Sox best bets are on the Red Sox moneyline and run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Dodgers Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -173 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +122 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +141 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Clayton Kershaw (LAD) | Stat | LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | W-L | 11-4 |
| 0.8 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.5 |
| 3.27 / 4.23 | ERA /xERA | 2.19 / 2.97 |
| 4.15 / 4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 2.41 / 2.71 |
| 1.25 | WHIP | 1.06 |
| 9.2% | K-BB% | 23.9% |
| 47.4% | GB% | 48.8% |
| 110 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 98 | Location+ | 100 |
Red Sox vs Dodgers Prediction, Betting Analysis
There’s more to this Saturday night matchup at Fenway Park than meets the eye. On the surface, it looks like a heavyweight duel between two big-name pitchers—Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and Garrett Crochet for the Red Sox. But dig a little deeper, and Boston starts to emerge as the more dangerous team in this spot.
Kershaw’s name still carries weight, and he’s pitched well this season in limited action. His road ERA is a stellar 1.80, showing he’s still capable of excellence. But he’ll be facing a Red Sox lineup that quietly excels against left-handed pitching. When Boston sees a southpaw, their numbers climb: a .260 batting average and .331 OBP, compared to just .247 and .317 against righties. The biggest under-the-radar edge? Walk rate. The Sox draw 88.1 walks per 1,000 plate appearances against lefties, versus just 82.5 per 1,000 against righties. That level of plate discipline is a weapon—especially against a veteran like Kershaw, who relies on control more than velocity at this point in his career.
Crochet, on the other hand, has been quietly elite all season. His 2.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP tell the story, and while he’s been slightly less dominant at home (2.70 ERA), it’s still high-level production. He’s facing a Dodgers team that, while still talented, is clearly a step down from its usual standard. Injuries have chipped away at their depth, and the overall energy just hasn’t been the same in the second half. They’re 26-22 on the road this year, which may not sound terrible, but it’s been a money-loser for bettors—a negative 8% ROI. Boston, by contrast, is 32-21 at Fenway and has delivered a +7% return for those backing them at home.
And then there’s the market behavior. Only 26% of public money is backing the Red Sox tonight, yet the line is moving in their favor. That’s a classic reverse line move—when the odds shift toward the less popular side. It’s often a sign that respected bettors, the kind who move numbers, are landing on the Sox. In short, the books are reacting to sharp money.
Boston is also coming off a pair of frustrating road series against the Cubs and Phillies, both ending in 1–2 losses. But don’t forget what came right before that: seven straight wins at home. There’s always a bit of a letdown in that first game back from a long road trip. The travel, the reset, the change in routine—it’s real. But now that the dust has settled, the nerves are gone. This team should come out sharper, looser, and ready to bounce back.
And the numbers support it. Four historically profitable systems are aligned with this Red Sox play tonight:
Home Favorites in Non-Division Games with Reverse Line Movement
This system identifies home favorites in non-division matchups (removing rivalry noise) during the mid-to-late season—where the line moves toward the home team despite low public backing. It’s a strong indicator of sharp action on overlooked favorites.
All-Time Record: 718-474 (60%)
ROI: 10%
2025 Record: 27-22 (55%), ROI 2%
Moderate Moneyline Favorites vs. Public, with Line Movement in Favor
This system looks for moderate favorites (roughly -110 to -160) that are fading public support, yet still see the line shift in their favor. It's a sharp-vs-square filter that isolates hidden value on teams the public is missing.
All-Time Record: 456-229 (67%)
ROI: 12%
2025 Record: 13-8 (62%), ROI 7%
Home Favorites with Reverse Line Movement Since 2019
A more broad but powerful trend. This system flags any home favorite where the line moves in their favor despite betting pressure on the road team. It’s the simplest way to spot when sportsbooks are reacting to sharp money rather than public action.
All-Time Record: 206-116 (64%)
ROI: 14%
2025 Record: 31-17 (65%), ROI 17%
Home Favorites with Worse Record and Reverse Line Movement
This one catches the most counterintuitive spots—when a team with the worse win percentage is still favored and sees reverse line movement. It means the “better” team is getting the public love, but oddsmakers are protecting their downside by shading the true edge.
All-Time Record: 191-109 (64%)
ROI: 11%
2025 Record: 22-12 (65%), ROI 14%
All four systems are live. All four point toward the Red Sox. The public sees Kershaw and a “better” team, but the market sees value in Boston. And with a stylistic edge at the plate, sharper recent signals, and the better bullpen behind Crochet, the Sox are the side worth backing—both straight up and on the run line.
Picks: Red Sox ML (-140 Bet365) & Red Sox -1.5 (+150 Bet365)
Moneyline
My pick for the moneyline is the Red Sox.
Run Line (Spread)
My pick for the run line is the Red Sox to cover (-1.5).
Over/Under
I'm staying away from game total.
