For Saturday, July 26, I'm on three MLB home run props: Manny Machado (against the Cardinals), Jordan Westburg (against the Rockies), and Hunter Goodman (against the Orioles).
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR picks for Saturday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Saturday, July 26
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for July 26
Hunter Goodman Home Run (+475)
at Orioles (SP: LHP Trevor Rogers)
Rockies slugger Hunter Goodman gets a plus matchup against the Orioles' Trevor Rogers, who has been a below-average matchup for righty power this season — but it's a small sample size, and he's due for some pretty massive negative regression with a 5.7% HR/FB.
The weather is great for hitting, with temps in the 90s and a 16.8% increase to HRs, according to WeatherEdge.
I have the true odds on Goodman around +400.
Jordan Westburg Home Run (+475)
vs. Rockies (SP: RHP Antonio Senzatela)
Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has been crushed by right-handed hitters this season, giving up 2.01 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
Jordan Westburg is one of a few Orioles hitters I'm on today. He has 11 homers in just 52 games played this season
I have his true odds around +350.
Manny Machado Home Run (+400)
at Cardinals (SP: LHP Matthew Liberatore)
Padres star Manny Machado is in a great spot tonight, yet the odds are a bit too high.
He has the platoon split advantage against Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed a below-average HR rate to righties but is due for some negative regression (40% fly-ball rate and above-average hard-contact rate).
The weather is ideal in St. Louis, with temps in the low 90s and winds blowing out at 9 mph. WeatherEdge is giving this game a 20.7% increase to HRs.
I have the true odds on Machado at +325.
