It's do or die — well, almost do or die — for the Rays tonight. Coming back from a 3-1 deficit against a Dodgers team that hasn't lost three straight since August of 2019 doesn't seem like the most exciting task.
But whether the Rays need a win or not tonight doesn't necessarily mean they're worth betting. In fact, one of our experts is finding moneyline value on the Dodgers to open up a 3-1 lead.
Let's take a look at the picks.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
Mike Vitanza: Dodgers Moneyline (-168)
With Julio Urias taking the mound for the Dodgers and Ryan Yarbrough getting the start for the Rays, each team will be rolling with a hybrid starter/opener for Game 4. Both pitchers have consistently thrown fewer than five innings in all of their postseason appearances, but each tends to go a bit longer than the typical opener that we’ve come to expect.
Urias was exceptional for the Dodgers during the regular season, pitching to a 2.57 FIP and striking out batters at a 9.0 K/9 clip. He’s had continued success this postseason, posting a 3.47 FIP and has allowed just one earned run over 16 innings pitched in October. He’s essentially been able to shut down any offense that’s come his way.
Yarbrough’s 2.63 ERA throughout this postseason is impressive, but his 6.12 FIP indicates he’s been getting very lucky. With a 3.5 run gap between his ERA and his FIP, Yarbrough is a strong candidate for some negative regression. The Dodgers were one of the best teams in baseball during the regular season against right-handed pitching with a .355 wOBA (2nd) and a .250 ISO (1st) in such matchups.
While each team used multiple bullpen arms in yesterday’s game, the key arms (with the exception of John Curtiss, who threw 30 pitches) were able to keep their pitch counts down and should be available tonight if needed. Both bullpens were exceptional during the regular season, but each has proven vulnerable so far over the past three games.
The Dodgers bats have been a force to be reckoned with throughout the World Series, averaging 6.7 runs/game against Rays pitching. I don’t expect that to change against an overperforming Yarbrough. I expect the Dodgers to be able to get to him early and rely on their strong bullpen to close things out.
I like the Dodgers to take Game 4 and a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight. There isn’t a ton of value on the current line of -168, but I am comfortable betting this on anything below -170.
Bet the Dodgers tonight at PointsBet and win $125 as long as they get a hit. Seriously.
BJ Cunningham: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+102)
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Ryan Yarbrough has been pretty average for the Rays this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 4.33 xFIP. However, during the postseason he's been pretty ineffective. Through 10.2 postseason innings, Yarbrough has posted a 6.26 xFIP and allowed three homers in the process.
Yarbrough has really struggled with his cutter this season, allowing a .315 average and a .352 wOBA. He then goes to a changeup and sinker as his two secondary pitches, which have both been pretty effective this year, allowing a combined .225 average. He'll have to be on point with those secondary pitches because the Dodgers are the fourth-best team in baseball versus cutters.
Additionally, although most of the Dodgers’ success has come against righties this season, they are no slouches against left-handed pitching. LA ranked eighth against lefties during the regular season with a .335 wOBA and 113 wRC+, including 27 home runs. They should have no issues getting to Yarbrough early in Game 4.
Julio Urias has been solid in both starting and bullpen roles posting a 3.27 ERA during the regular season and has allowed only one earned run during 16 postseason innings. However, he's been a tad fortunate because his regular season and postseason xFIPs are all the way up at 5.06 and 3.80, respectively.
Urias mainly uses a fastball/curveball combination that has been very effective this year. Those two pitches are allowing only a .185 average to opponents and are also producing over a 25% whiff rate. He also has a changeup and slider that he goes to rarely, but those two pitches haven't been very effective. He’ll need to be on his game tonight because Tampa Bay was one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitching during the regular season, ranking sixth in MLB with a .343 wOBA and 121 wRC+
With both offenses having decent matchups versus the opposing starting pitcher, I think we will see some runs early on in Game 4. I have 4.76 runs projected for the first five innings, so I think there is some value on over 4.5 runs at +102.
