Dodgers vs. Rays Odds, Picks, Betting Predictions for World Series Game 4 (Oct. 24)

Dodgers vs. Rays Game 4 Odds

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After a fantastic performance from Walker Buehler in Game 3, the Dodgers are two games closer to the first World Series title in 32 years. Justin Turner got the party started in Game 4 with a first inning home run off of Charlie Morton. From that point on the Dodgers lineup was relentless and never let up on Morton and the Rays bullpen.

Tampa Bay is now in a precarious spot because it doesn't have a reliable No. 4 starting pitcher. They have the choice of going with a bullpen game or with Glasnow on short rest. Either way they cannot afford to go down 3-1, given the way the Dodgers are hitting the ball right now.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Offensive Matchup

Los Angeles Dodgers

Although most of the Dodgers’ success has come against righties this season, they are no slouches against left-handed pitching. LA ranked eighth against lefties during the regular season with a .335 wOBA and 113 wRC+, including 27 home runs. AJ Pollock absolutely crushed lefties this season with .345 average and .468 wOBA, both of which were the best marks on the team.

The Dodgers saw Yarbrough for 2/3 of an inning in Game 1 and got two hits off of him. Given how much Yarbrough has struggled during the postseason, I think the Dodgers will be able to get to him early in Game 4.

Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay's offense has relied on the long ball during the postseason, hitting 28 home runs, including three so far this series. However, the Rays are hitting for only a .213 average during the postseason. The good news is that Tampa Bay was one of the best teams in baseball against left handed pitching during the regular season, ranking sixth in MLB with a .343 wOBA and 121 wRC+.

The Rays are an interesting team, due to the fact they struggle versus fastballs, but absolutely crush off-speed pitches. The Rays rank 24th in MLB against fastballs with -9.9 weighted fastball runs. However, they are top-five in baseball against sliders, curveballs and changeups.

That's going to be a problem in Game 4 because Urias has a great fastball and utilizes it over 57% of the time.

Starting Pitching Matchup 

Julio Urias vs. Ryan Yarbrough

2020 Stats(via Fangraphs)

Julio Urias, LHP

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Julio Urias has been going back and forth between the starting rotation and the bullpen this season. He's been solid in both roles posting a 3.27 ERA during the regular season and has allowed only one earned run during 16 postseason innings. However, he's been a tad fortunate because his regular season and postseason xFIPs are all the way up at 5.06 and 3.80.

Urias mainly uses a fastball/curveball combination that has been very effective for him this year. Those two pitches are allowing only a .185 average to opponents and are also producing over a 25% whiff rate. He also has a changeup and slider that he goes to rarely, but those two pitches haven't been very effective. To get through this Rays lineup he'll need to utilize a heavy dose of fastballs in Game 4.

Ryan Yarbrough, LHP

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Ryan Yarbrough has been pretty average for the Rays this season, posting a 3.56 ERA and 4.33 xFIP. However, during the postseason he's been pretty ineffective. Through 10.2 postseason innings, Yarbrough has posted a 6.26 xFIP and allowed three homers in the process.

Yarbrough has really struggled with his cutter this season, allowing a .315 average and a .352 wOBA this season. He then goes to a changeup and sinker as his two secondary pitches, which have both been pretty effective this year, allowing a combined .225 average. He'll have to be on point with those secondary pitches because the Dodgers are the fourth best team in baseball versus cutters.

Bullpen Matchup

Tampa Bay has one of the best bullpens in baseball, collectively ranking second in ERA (3.37) and sixth in xFIP (4.16). Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo have by far been the Rays' best two relievers during the postseason and will be fully rested for Game 4 after getting Friday night off.  Tampa's bullpen has been solid through the first two games, allowing only 13 hits and five runs in 17.2 innings.

The Dodgers counter with a bullpen that leads MLB in ERA (2.74) and was second in xFIP at 3.88. They shut down the Rays in Game 3, when Dave Roberts finally decided to use his best three relievers Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol or Kenley Jansen. We'll see how Roberts manages his bullpen if Urias can't go 5-plus innings.

Projections and Pick

Based on my projections, I don't see any value on the current moneyline odds or full game over/under. However, I think both offenses have decent matchups against the opposing starting pitcher.

So we could see some runs early on in Game 4. Since I have 4.76 runs projected for the first five innings, I'll take Over 4.5 runs at +102. Also doesn't hurt that the first five innings total has gone over the first three games.

Pick: First Five Innings Over 4.5 (+102)

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