We've reached the end of the line, with another exciting season of the Contender Series in the books. After a slow start, last week gave us a fight of the year candidate (as well as plenty of cashed tickets), so we'll see if the finale can live up to Week 9. On the plus side, Week 10 gives us a special six-fight card, thanks to the return of fan-favorite Freddy Vidal.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 14, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 10 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 10 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 10 Odds & Best Bets
Middleweight: Mario Mingaj (+180) vs. Wes Schultz (-218)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Wes Schultz is one of two returning DWCS fighters in Week 10, having previously appeared last season, where he was defeated by Mansur Abdul-Malik. "Party Time" is 7-2 overall, with six of those wins coming via finishes on the ground (four submissions and two ground and pound victories) while both of his losses came against current UFC fighters, the other being Dylan Budka.
As I noted in my initial breakdown of Schultz, his defining skill his his wrestling ability. He was a D3 All-American before transferring to Big 12 wrestling school Wyoming University. I also noted in that breakdown how that made him a bad match for Malik, a bigger and stronger athlete who was also a D1 wrestler. It's probably not a coincidence that his other loss came to former high school All-American and D2 wrestler Dylan Budka.
Schultz was able to land two takedowns on Malik in their fight before eventually being knocked out, which is impressive since Malik is undefeated in the UFC with two knockouts and a technical draw that should've been a win. Schultz has since fought just one, a submission win in less than a minute in April. That didn't do much to dispel my original read on Schultz, which is that his wrestling and top game are UFC level, but he offers relatively little in the striking department, and struggles off his back.
That makes Mingaj a much better matchup for Schultz than Malik was. The undefeated Italian has five submissions in his seven pro wins, four of which are triangle chokes. The 6'4" Mingaj's long limbs are well suited to the technique; however it also requires being on one's back to land it.
Mingaj's wrestling is a major flaw, one that he's covered up with his submission skills off his back. In all of the fights I watched, he worked behind a reasonably effective jab at range, but immediately rushed in for a clinch once his opponents closed the distance. From there, he'll either allow himself to be taken down or jump guillotines, either way ending up on bottom. In the rare moments he spent in top control against lower-level fighters, he was fairly quickly reversed.
He took a decent amount of damage while stuck in bottom position, losing rounds on multiple occasions before going back to the well and locking up a triangle choke. That strategy works well at lower levels but has a very limited shelf life — eventually, opponents become wise to the move, or are too skilled to be caught in it to begin with.
I was impressed by Shchultz's guard passing in particular, and that's the easiest way to shut down submissions from the bottom. There's not too many submissions from bottom side control — buggy chokes notwithstanding.
Schultz should be able to get this done, either with ground and pound or a dominant decision victory via top time. Either way, that would cover his -3.5 point spread, which is priced at -140 on DraftKings.
Prediction: Schultz via decision
Billy's Bet: Schultz -3.5 -140 (DraftKings)
Heavyweight: Azamat Nuftillaev (+110) vs. Jovan Leka (-130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
The last of the season's heavyweight bouts features two fighters with solid overall records, but an extremely low level of competition.
We'll start with Azamat Nuftillaev. When I began researching this week's Contender Series event, Tapology listed his record at 17-1-1. Now he's down to 13-1-1, with four of his past bouts tagged as potentially illegitimate. That's never a great sign, but Nuftillaev went on to fight for more legitimate promotions like France's Ares FC for a couple of his more recent bouts, so we know he's at least had some legitimate wins.
Fighting out of Uzbekistan, Nurtillaev's only career loss came against Slim Trabelsi in 2022, a loss that has aged reasonably well with Trabelsi now 8-1 and fighting in PFL. Nuftillaev's notable wins mostly came in the Uzebki Octagon promotion, which is somewhat hard to trust given the history of his regional bouts. Doubly so since he seems to have some connection to the Uzbeki military, and could be being built up by an authoritarian government as a national hero.
Which means the only fights of his I'm reasonably confident were legitimate are his pair in Ares FC — the loss to Trabelsi and a win over 1 7-4 opponent. In the fight against Trabelsi, an Olympic freestyle wrestling competitor, Nuftillaev showed off his grappling ability early. Trabelsi landed a quick takedown, but Nuftillaev reversed him almost immediately, spending about half of the first round attacking the back of Trabelsi.
From there, Trabelsi regained top position and had Nuftillaev stuck on his back and eating shots the remainder of the round. In the second round, he was taken down with little resistance, and pounded out from the bottom. There's no shame in that against a former Olympian, but it's also not a great sign.
In his other Ares fight, he was the one initiating the grappling. He forced a clinch in the first 30 seconds of Round 1, landed a clinch takedown about a minute later, then landed strikes from top position the rest of the round. He attempted the same plan in Round 2 but got stuck on his back, and was saved by a referee's stand up despite being in bottom mount position. He was able to land a takedown in the third round and finish the fight with ground and pound, but might not have had the chance without some generous officiating.
Nuftillaev also seems to have very little ability, or even interest, in striking at range. That will make it interesting if he faces an opponent who can defend takedowns, especially with Nuftillaev's cardio seeming questionable at best, even by heavyweight standards.
He's fighting Serbia's Jovan Leka, who is eight years his junior, four inches taller, and 25 lbs heavier. Leka is 10-2, so has nearly the same amount of experience, and quite possibly much more experience in non-fixed fights. I say possibly because he's competed almost exclusively in his native country, though I have no reason to believe any of his fights were set up. His last two opponents were 9-5 coming into the bout, and he also holds a win against an opponent who was 5-0 at the time.
The 6'5" Leka uses his reach well, working behind a jab and attempting to maintain space on the feet. He appears fairly comfortable in the clinch, digging for underhooks and turning his opponent's backs to the fence to then breakaway, which will be a helpful skill against Nuftillaev. With his considerable size edge, he should be able to control those positions and get back to striking range, where (by heavyweight standards) he's a high volume striker.
He also worked back to his feet well from the bottom, which could come in handy in this matchup.
Stylistically, Leka appears to have the perfect skill set to stifle Nuftillaev's strengths, plus a considerable size edge. Paired with the questionable nature of Nuftillaev's record, that's enough for me to lay the -120 at FanDuel — and I'd play him down to -140 if the line continues to swing his way.
Prediction: Leka via knockout
Billy's Bet: Leka -120 (FanDuel)
Welterweight: Michael Oliveira (-265) vs. Victor Valenzuela (+215)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
The second military member on the card is Brazilian paratrooper Michael Oliveira, who comes into the fight as a heavy favorite, with an 8-0 record and seven knockout finishes. He's fought an appropriately increasing level of competition, with his last six fights all coming under the LFA banner.
I have no clue how Oliveira makes welterweight. He's listed at 6'1" tall with a 77.5" reach, both big but not massive at 170lbs. He carries a ton of muscle on his long frame, though, reminding me physically of a young Anthony "Rumble" Johnson, who had similar proportions but eventually worked his way all the way up to light heavyweight before the end of his career.
He's not entirely dissimilar from Johnson stylistically, either. Oliveira is a calm striker, stalking his opponents behind a long jab and quick leg kicks, before eventually exploding with heavy shots. He throws an excellent lead-leg head kick that finished one of his LFA opponents and has clipped others, and will throw heavy punches when the time is right.
He won't force the issue, though, as he's happy to chip away until his opponents get desperate and leave an opening for heavy shots. It's not the most exciting style for much of the fight, then suddenly it is, as he swarms relentlessly for the finish. He doesn't need to press too hard, though, as he carries enough power to drop fighters with only his jab.
I didn't find much tape of him grappling, and he was happy to allow opponents back to the feet following slips or knockdowns. Much of that is because of his excellent range management, which shuts down takedown attempts by staying out of shooting and clinching range. I'm sure many of his past opponents wanted to turn the fight into a grappling match, but it's easier said than done against someone with his massive reach and power.
Chile's Victor Valenzuela stands just 5'9" with a 70" reach, so that will certainly be a challenge for him to overcome. The Arman Tsaurkyan doppelganger looks like he might be able to make 155lbs if push comes to shove, putting him at a big size disadvantage against Oliveira.
Where he's not a disadvantage is in explosive ability. The Fury FC welterweight champion overcomes his somewhat limited reach by darting in with big hooks and knees, and is seemingly happy to take one (or two, or three) shots if it means he gets to land one of his own. That's worked well against fighters he can overwhelm physically, but is a very poor plan against a powerful opponent like Oliveira.
He also didn't find much success offensively wrestling on the limited occasions he tried to, which would be the more obvious path to success if he could take it.
Rather than lay the juice on Oliveira, I'm playing his knockout prop at -160 on DraftKings. My initial read was Oliveira in Rounds 2 or 3, thanks to his typical patient style. Given Valenzuela's propensity to rush into danger (and the paltry +125 odds for a Round 1 stoppage), the knockout prop is the best overall option.
Prediction: Oliveira by KO
Billy's Bet: Oliveira KO/TKO/DQ -160 (DraftKings)
Featherweight: Marwan Rahiki (-355) vs. Ananias Mulumba (+280)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
The widest odds on any fight tonight belong to Marwan Rahiki, an undefeated Australian prospect fighting out of Sydney. His record sits at 6-0, and he's the current featherweight champion of Hex MMA, one of Australia's largest promotions, as well as the smaller Beatdown Promotions. He was also the GAMMA world runner-up as an amateur, a feat made more impressive by the fact that his amateur debut was in 2023. I can't find any prior combat sports background, so it's entirely possible that he's simply a gifted athlete who has made huge progress in his two years of active competition.
"Freaky" Rahiki is a long, rangy striker who stays calm at range, then explodes with big hooks, spinning techniques, and other dynamic striking attacks. He's finished all six of his pro wins with five KOs, and has yet to see a third round.
He's not the most accurate striker, but he only needs one to land, so accuracy isn't a huge concern. He's also not especially defensively responsible, leaving himself open to counters, particularly when he spins, but he has the speed and reflexes to avoid most of what comes back his way.
His bigger weakness is his takedown defense, but he's relatively solid off his back. He uses his 5'10" frame well, creating frames with his arms and establishing butterfly hooks in order to work back to his feet. He's not going to be Charles Oliveira on his back, but he has the skills and athletic ability to escape back to standing, which is more than enough given his striking ability. Much like Oliveira, his length also deters takedown attempts, though he doesn't manage the distance as well as the Brazilian.
That makes for an interesting dynamic against Mulumba, who appears to have a background in Kyokushin Karate but certainly prefers to grapple in MMA fights. He's 9-2 with nine finishes, and while four of those are TKOs, most of those came from damage on the ground.
His last opponent came against a 10-11 opponent, but he's fought tougher competition at various points in the past.
On the feet, he uses leg kicks at range against taller and longer opponents, and has extremely quick kicks in general. Grappling is clearly Plan A, though, as he looks to either shoot or grapple as soon as his opponents plant their feet to throw. That could put him in a good position to at least log some takedown attempts on Rahiki, though I'm skeptical about how many of those he's able to actually convert. He's not the most technical wrestler, blasting double legs and running out of ideas if the initial attack is unsuccessful. He also appears to be looking for various Judo throws, without much success.
The submission finish he found in his last fight was from his overwhelmed opponent taking bad shots at his ankles, which Mulumba was happy to turn into grappling scrambles. Rahiki won't give him those opportunities, so if he wants the fight on the canvas, he'll have to get it there himself.
Other than catching Rahiki in a wild exchange, I don't really see much of a path to victory for Mulumba here. I also don't love laying -175 on Rahiki's knockout prop, since the Australian has a solid guillotine and could have plenty of opportunities to lock one up if Mulumba is taking bad shots.
For that reason, I'm taking Rahiki at -225 to win by any stoppage at DraftKings. The knockout is certainly more likely, but the price isn't far enough off to justify the risk. This could also be used as a parlay piece with Oliveira's knockout prop, if you share my aversion to laying juice on DWCS fights.
Prediction: Rahiki via knockout
Billy's Bet: Rahiki Inside the Distance -225 (DraftKings)
Bantamweight: Juan Diaz (+164) vs. Won Il Kwon (-198)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
We don't get a lot of Contender Series fighters who come in after a loss, but Won Il Kwon is the rare exception. In his defense, that loss was for the ONE FC featherweight title against Fabricio de Andrade, who knocked out Kwon for the second time, needing just 1:44 combined across his two wins over Kwon.
Kwon is 14-5 overall, with 14 of those fights (including all five losses) under the ONE FC banner. I like that they're bringing him in through the Contender Series rather than directly into the UFC, given the struggles we've seen from other ONE fighters, as this is probably a more appropriate test of his abilities. At 30 years old, "Pretty Boy" isn't quite a prospect anymore, but he still has at least a few years of his prime left.
Kwon fights like he's doing Muay Thai with little gloves, standing upright and throwing hard single shots, mostly kicks. When opponents press into close range, he has a nasty lead hook to the body, and also uses standing elbows and knees exceptionally well.
His takedown defense is solid but nothing special. He has an excellent sprawl thanks to his quick reflexes, but doesn't defend repeated wrestling attempts as well. He also has a tendency to get stuck in bad positions, with two of his five pro losses coming via submission, and extended periods spent in bad spots in other fights. I'm interested to see if moving from a ring to a cage allows him to escape more easily, or if he finds himself stuck against the wall more often in unfamiliar territory.
Which makes this a fairly binary striker-vs-grappler fight against Diaz, who has a 14-1-1 pro record but also competes in some high-level submission grappling events. Training out of Entram gym in Mexico with a handful of UFC fighters, Diaz brings a seven-fight winning streak into his DWCS appearance. Three of those were for the Lux FC bantamweight title, and twice they went all 25 minutes.
Diaz's striking is the classic Mexican boxing style, with heavy pressure and punches in combinations. That's typically a solid way to defeat Muay Thai stylists, though Kwon's vicious body shots might find the gap in his high guard defense.
Two of Diaz's title fights were against a fellow BJJ Brown belt, and Diaz didn't push the grappling issue in those matchups, feeling (rightfully) that his bigger edge was standing. He also seemed more content to stay standing in five-round fights, as it's easier to manage the gas tank while striking than it is hunting takedowns.
However, prior to his title run, he grappled fairly proactively, and that's certainly his bigger edge here. I was surprised to see Diaz the underdog here with Kwon coming in off a loss — high-level though that loss may be.
I don't love betting on a fighter to grapple when he hasn't done it in recent fights, but the plus-money odds make it tolerable. I'm taking Diaz straight up, at +164 on DraftKings.
Prediction: Diaz via Submission
Billy's Bets: Diaz +164 (DraftKings)
Light Heavyweight: Levi Rodrigues (-125) vs. Freddy Vidal (+105)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:45 p.m. ET
Freddy Vidal, the Long Island gym teacher/wrestling coach/MMA fighter, immediately became a fan favorite back in Week 5, when he took a short-notice opportunity as a +360 underdog and gutted out a comeback win on his first trip to the Contender Series.
While Vidal didn't really showcase the skills or cardio necessary for UFC success, he showed plenty of toughness and grit. Those attributes are harder to teach, and with Vidal less than a year into his pro career, he has plenty of potential for growth. I also expect his cardio to be better this time around, as he's had five weeks to prepare, and won't have to deal with a grueling last-minute weight cut like he did last time.
That's not nearly enough time to improve on his other holes, though. Vidal was out struck 32-22 on the feet despite his opponent constantly attempting takedowns, and he was put on his back six times, though he was able to reverse position and attack submissions when there. His complete lack of striking defense is the bigger concern, though, with his opponent landing over 70% of his significant strikes and Vidal doing little to avoid them.
That could be a bigger problem this time around. Levi Rodrigues is 5-0 in his pro career with five knockout victories, the longest of which lasted 30 seconds into the third round. While he hasn't fought the highest level of competition, three of those fights came against opponents with winning records in the LFA promotion — which is three more than Vidal had prior to his win five weeks ago.
Rodrigues is definitely a striker, while Vidal was a D1 wrestler, making this a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Besides his MMA wins, Rodrigues also has experience in boxing and kickboxing.
His last fight was against a fellow striker, and Rodrigues showed off his fast hands while pressuring forward for the entire 2:47 of the fight — save some time spent in top position following a caught kick. His top grappling was surprisingly impressive, with a nice guard pass that set up the finishing sequence, but that doesn't give us much insight into his takedown defense or defensive grappling.
His other LFA fights were too early on the prelims to be available either on YouTube or UFC Fight Pass, so there isn't much tape out there on "Baby Monster."
Still, he's younger, more experienced, and appears to have a massive speed edge on the feet. He'll likely have to spend a round or so fending off takedowns from Vidal, who will eventually get tired and be more available to be hit.
My initial read was Rodrigues via knockout, but the +100 price tag isn't much better than his moneyline. Instead, I'm splitting my action between Rodrigues in Round 2 at +550, and Round 3 at +1200, with a quarter-unit on each.
Prediction: Rodrigues via KO
Billy's Bets: Rodrigues Round 2 +550 | Round 3 +1100 — Both via FanDuel
