We've got just two more weeks of Tuesday night fights left, in what's been another exciting year of DWCS action. Here's hoping the rumored expansion to the series begins in 2026.
Week 9 of the Contender Series features four Brazilian fighters, serving as a bit of a prelude to this weekend's UFC Rio card.
Check out the latest Dana White's Contender Series Week 9 odds with my picks and predictions for each bout on the Tuesday, October 7, fight card.
DWCS Season 9 Episode 6 of Contender Series streams tonight on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET (5 p.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas.
As with all DWCS events, some of the winners – and even some of the losers – could earn an official UFC contract tonight. In fact, the Contender Series has become the UFC's primary feeder system for new talent.
UFC CEO Dana White will be cageside tonight. The UFC boss will determine which fighters have earned a contract with their performances, which also count as official MMA bouts on the fighters' records.
As a reminder, some sportsbooks can be slow to open Contender Series odds and betting markets, though nearly every major sportsbook eventually does post them. And don't forget that you can track your Contender Series bets in the Action App.
Dana White's Contender Series odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. Bet on DWCS Week 8 with our DraftKings promo code.
Dana White's Contender Series Week 9 Odds & Best Bets
Light Heavyweight: Luke Fernandez (-810) vs. Rafel Pergentino (+470)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
We've got some reasonably close fights in Week 9, but this is not one of them. As is often the case, this fight is almost certainly intended more as a showcase for Fernandez than as an actually competitive fight, with the American seeing his line balloon up to -810.
Which makes a lot of sense, if you look just a bit beyond their identical 5-0 professional records. Fernandez is the CFFC light heavyweight MMA and professional grappling champ. He earned the latter title with a submission win over UFC fighter Phil Hawes, and had previously defeated Eryk Anders in a grappling match. He also went 6-0 as an amateur, and also held the CFFC title then.
Prior to that, he was a college wrestler, and currently works as a high school wrestling coach at his alma mater. Lest you think he's just a one-dimensional grappler, he's also picked up some solid knockout victories on the feet. Oh, and he's spent time in Connecticut training with Alex Pereira.
Pergentino, on the other hand, was a BJJ blue belt as recently as a year ago, and seems to have started MMA/grappling to lose weight. All of his wins are on the ground, but they were also all at heavyweight, where the grappling talent tends to be much less.
He's gotten in much better shape than in some of his prior fights, but he's still a considerably worse athlete than Fernandez, and it's hard to see him landing takedowns on the wrestling stand out.
I'm not in the business of laying -800 or longer on MMA fights, and even his round/method of victory props are juiced fairly heavily. Fernandez, or Fernandez inside the distance, makes sense for parlays, but outside of that, I'm going to sit this one out.
Prediction: Fernandez via TKO (ground and pound)
Billy's Bet: Pass
Welterweight: Donavon Hedrick (-120) vs. Luis Felipe Dias (+100)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:45 p.m. ET
The first of two USA vs. Brazil fights on the card, this is an intriguing matchup between an undefeated, yet untested, prospect in Hedrick, taking on a veteran in Dias who has seen some ups and downs throughout his career.
We'll start with Hedrick, who comes into the fight with a 6-0 record, but has fought just one opponent with a winning record. That was in his last fight, where he took on a 2-1 fighter who has since fallen to 2-3. He's also fought exclusively for the "Combat Night" promotion in Florida, with all of his professional and amateur fights coming for that organization. That makes it very hard to assess his true ability, even with the easy availability of his fights on YouTube (thanks, Combat Night).
He's never been past the 2:48 mark in any of his fights, and his last two took less than three minutes combined. One of those he won via a weird standing guillotine that really shouldn't work, the other he won via TKO when his opponent hurt himself while taking Hedrick down. None of his fights spent more than a few seconds on the feet, and I wasn't particularly impressed with his ground game. As far as I can tell, Hedrick is a good athlete without any particularly developed martial skills — which is enough against over-matched opponents, but provides an extremely limited ceiling.
On the other hand, Dias is 15-5 as a pro, but is 1-2 over the past five years, excluding a bout Tapology flagged as potentially illegitimate. Not exactly a great resume to bring to the Contender Series, though he's fought much tougher opposition. For example, his two recent losses came against opponents with a combined 34-14 record, both in the Brave CF promotion in Bahrain.
I'm not sure why he's been so inactive, with no fights since 2023 and just three since 2020. That gap in activity also makes tape study on him a bit misleading, as a lot can change — for better or for worse — in the time he's been off.
In his last fight, the BJJ black belt hit a nice foot sweep, passed guard, took his opponent's back, and tapped him out in 40 seconds. He's clearly a high-level jiu-jitsu player, and works with Jessica Andrade and a handful of other UFC fighters in what seems to be a coaching role.
On the feet, he's not particularly fast or powerful, but has solid technique, at least initially. He works behind his jab, carries his hands high, and finishes combinations with leg kicks. However, once he starts getting hit, that technique goes out the window, and he starts swinging wildly. This becomes a problem, given his limited athleticism by UFC standards. The bigger problem is his lack of wrestling ability.
He was unable to shoot for takedowns in his loss against Luiz Cado, landing one from the clinch early in the fight but failing on the rest before being knocked out. In his fight against UFC vet Marcin Bandel, he found himself stuck in bottom position for most of the fight, though he threatened with a handful of submission attempts, some of which would've caught lesser fighters.
While my read on both fighters is somewhat negative, one of those fighters failed to impress me against UFC veterans and high-level opponents, while the other failed to impress me against hand-picked fighters in his hometown promotion. While I'm nervous about the long layoff for Dias, I'd rather bet on his skillset than Hedrick's athleticism. A quick Hedrick knockout also wouldn't surprise me, but I'll take Dias at the current odds.
He's seen the line inch his way despite more than three-quarters of Tapology predictions coming in on Hedrick, which is also a sharp signal. The best current line is +108 at FanDuel, though I'd play him down to -120. I'm also taking a sprinkle at his +280 submission prop, with the best odds again coming via FanDuel.
Prediction: Dias via submission
Billy's Bet: Dias +108 (FanDuel) | Dias Sub +280 (FanDuel)
Flyweight: Imanol Rodriguez (-250) vs. Roque Conceicao (+205)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:15 p.m. ET
Undefeated Mexican flyweight Imanol Rodriguez was part of team Cormier on Season 33 of the Ultimate Fighter, where he lost a split decision in the semi-final round to the eventual winner, Joseph Morales.
The UFC evidently thinks highly of him because they're giving him an immediate shot on the Contender Series, with no regional bouts in between. Still just 25 and with his perfect record intact (TUF bouts count as exhibitions and not on a fighter's record), he seems to have a bright future ahead of him — especially since moving camp to AKA to continue training with Cormier and company.
Rodriguez has some of the best hands I've seen from a prospect in a long time, with technical boxing ability and impressive speed. He's also a strong wrestler, dominating Morales on the ground in the third round of their TUF semifinal despite Morales repeatedly grabbing the fence in an attempt to change positions. That came after Rodriguez got the worst of the grappling early, which serves as a testament to his cardio that he improved throughout the fight.
I thought the fight was a clear win for Rodriguez, especially with the uncalled fouls. Perhaps Dana White and the UFC brass did too, which would explain Rodriguez's immediate shot at redemption.
That close fight also aged well, since Morales went on to claim the TUF 33 championship with a submission win.
He does face a fairly stiff test if he wants to seize that opportunity, in Roque Conceicao. The Brazilian is also 25, and holds a 10-2 record with nine finishes, and both losses coming via decision. He's fought some stiff competition as well, with wins over opponents who were 7-0 and 10-4 at the time of the fight.
He's primarily a Muay Thai fighter, coming forward fairly aggressively with strikes. However, he's not particularly technical nor does he have the hand speed of Rodriguez, and seems to rely on overwhelming opponents with volume.
Conceicao also inexplicably initiated grappling exchanges multiple times in the fight I could find video on, despite getting the worst of every trip to the canvas. While he could have certainly fixed the game plan mistake, I doubt he's been able to shore up the grappling deficiency. At least not relative to Rodriguez, who has been training with a world class camp at AKA.
While not exactly a squash match, this matchmaking feels like the UFC doing Rodriguez a solid after he arguably deserved to be on the Ultimate Fighter finale. He'd be a fine parlay piece with Fernandez if you were so inclined, though that still only gets you to around -200 odds.
Instead, I'm laying the -3.5 on his point spread at -140 odds. Rodriguez probably should be able to find a finish here, but a dominant decision with his wrestling is also plausible, and this way we're covered for both outcomes.
Prediction: Rodriguez via knockout
Billy's Bet: Rodriguez -3.5 -140 (DraftKings)
Bantamweight: Mark Vologdin (-155) vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (+130)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 9:45 p.m. ET
Mark Vologdin is the second Russian striker on the card. The 5'3" Vologdin has a background in Kyokushin Karate, a full-contact martial art famously practiced by Georges St. Pierre, and he has multiple international championships in the art before transitioning to MMA.
He appears to be fairly well-rounded, though, with four of his 12 MMA wins coming via submission. His primary training camp is Allstars Training Center in Sweden, the occasional home of Khamzat Chimaev, among other UFC standouts. Overall, he's 12-3-1, with wins over lower-level opposition, but the three losses coming when he attempted to take on tougher challenges. However, he's on a 7-fight/4-year winning streak and has surely made some improvements since those early losses.
The stance-switching Vologdin has extremely fast kicks, which is fortunate because at just 5'3", he relies on them heavily to strike opponents from range. Even still, taller bantamweights are in punching range before he even gets to kicking range, forcing him to rely on his footwork and movement to cover the distance.
Since Kyokushin Karate doesn't allow punches to the head, I was pleasantly surprised by his boxing, particularly in his recent fights. Vologdin looks to back opponents up near the cage so they can't escape his punching range, before flurrying with solid combinations of punches to he body and head. His body shots are especially lethal, with his short stature allowing him to easily drop under the guard of his opponents for strikes to the body.
However, he doesn't punch much in open space, so the key dynamic in his fight against Martinetti will be range management. If he can back the 5'8" Martinetti into the fence, he'll be in great shape, while he'll likely struggle in the center of the cage. To his credit, he hit a nice takedown that led to an arm triangle choke in his last fight, but it was more based on timing his opponent stepping in than great wrestling ability. Why his much taller opponent was stepping in so aggressively is beyond me, but that's what happened.
I expect Martinetti to be the one forcing the grappling in this matchup. The 30-year-old Ecuadorian does most of his training at the UFC PI in Mexico City, where he works with UFC standouts Brandon Moreno and Dominick Cruz, among others.
Primarily a southpaw, Martinetti is comfortable getting on his bike and forcing smaller opponents to chase him across the cage. While he'll exchange a bit on the feet, he's fairly committed to getting takedowns, even shooting on rocked opponents rather than trying to finish the fight on the feet. I was particularly impressed by his ability to hold his opponents down, a much tougher skill in the lighter weight classes.
He also has five-round experience, and was able to maintain his energy-demanding style of constant movement on the feet and repeated takedown attempts even into the later rounds. I'll be interested to see if he can push an even faster pace in three-round fights, though getting too aggressive against Vologdin would probably be to his detriment.
Either way, Martinetti's movement will force Vologdin to pursue him, and his takedowns will punish over-aggressive pursuit. While Vologdin might have the footwork to solve that dilemma, it's a pretty narrow needle to thread — especially in the Apex cage that's somewhat larger than most regional promotions use.
With Martinetti now as high as +130 odds, I'm going to bet Vologdin can't solve that puzzle. The best price is at DraftKings.
Prediction: Martinetti via decision
Billy's Bet: Adrian Luna Martinetti +130 (DraftKings)
Lightweight: Magomed Zaynukov (-425) vs. Lucas Caldas (+330)
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 10:15 p.m. ET
While the name Magomed Zaynukov sounds very much like a Dagestani grappler, this lightweight bout is between two fighters with professional kickboxing/Muay Thai experience. Zaynukov held world championships in various global Muay Thai organizations, while Brazil's Lucas Caldas has a pair of pro kickboxing matches on his record, though likely has competed in more than the two that made it to Tapology (especially considering the video that exists of other bouts on YouTube.
Zaynukov is 7-0, and Caldas would be 7-0 — except he lost a fight via DQ due to an illegal stomp. It was a strange result, as Valdas had dropped his opponent multiple times before stomping/kicking him in the body. The fight probably could've been waived off before that, anyway. The rest of his MMA fights have been knockout wins, against reasonably solid but unspectacular competition.
Caldas fits the classic Brazilian striker archetype, with a highly aggressive style and an emphasis on heavy kicks and knee strikes. He brings both technique and athletic ability to his striking, with solid defense and impressive speed and power. I was hoping to find more tape of him grappling, but was unable to do so — which is perhaps a testament to his takedown defense, given that most of his opponents should be trying to take him down.
Zaynukov has fought somewhat tougher competition as an MMA fighter, with five knockouts among his seven wins. He's somewhat more measured than Caldas, preferring to claim the center of the cage and catch opponents with counter strikes rather than rush forward like his Brazilian opponent. He's also a master of standing elbow strikes, catching opponents with them on multiple occasions in the fights I watched.
Interestingly enough, he was taken down multiple times in his two fights for the UAE Warriors promotion. While he worked his way back to his feet on some of those takedowns, he was also bailed out by his opponents on others. One fighter sat back for leg lock attempts from top position multiple times, while another got greedy trying to jump on Zaynukov's back rather than maintain top position.
While I'm not sure there will be any grappling in this fight, if there is, I would expect it to be initiated and won by Caldas. That's a bit speculative given the lack of evidence of him actually grappling, but he trains with some high-level BJJ players at Nova União in Brazil, which counts for something.
I'd also rate Caldas as the better athlete here, with a greater likelihood of overwhelming Zaynukov than the other way around. While Zaynukov's pedigree makes him a deserving favorite, I'd set the line somewhere around -200, not -400.
That makes Caldas an excellent play at +340 odds via FanDuel. I'm also sprinkling on his +600 KO odds, as that seems like the likeliest win condition for either man.
Prediction: Caldas via KO
Billy's Bets: Caldas +340 (0.5u) | Caldas KO +600 (0.2u) — Both FanDuel
