Check out my UFC 320 predictions for every fight on tonight's pay-per-view at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
Below, I look at the latest UFC 320 odds and break down and predict each bout on today's PPV fight card with updated odds. You can also find my prop and finish projections for each fight.
Let's break it down.
UFC 320 Predictions
After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And after looking at the UFC 320 odds, today's event is no exception.
So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights based on the latest UFC 320 odds, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.
UFC 320 odds are as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 320 with our DraftKings promo code.
Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.
UFC 320 Odds: My Projections
Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projections for each of Saturday's 14 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.
UFC 320 Moneyline Projections
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings.
UFC 320 Prop Projections
In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside the distance.
UFC 320 Prop Projections
Veronica Hardy vs. Brogan Walker
| Women's Flyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Veronica Hardy | -700 |
| Brogan Walker | +500 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -410/+290 |
Projection: Hardy (86.2%)
Aside from the short-notice fight between Ateba Gautier and Tre'ston Vines, Veronica Hardy is the heaviest moneyline favorite on Saturday's card, lined at -650 (88.7% implied) or higher as of writing, compared to my projected line of -624.
As a result, I don't project value on either side of the moneyline; however, I do expect this fight to go to a decision more frequently than the odds suggest.
I projected the distance or goes to decision prop at -431 (81.2% implied) compared to listed odds of -340 (77.3% implied) and set Hardy as a -240 favorite to win by decision, compared to listed odds of -195. I would consider betting her decision line to -220, or utilizing that prop as a parlay piece.
Walker is the bigger athlete (3" reach advantage). Still, Hardy is seven years her junior, has the speed advantage, and is the more technical kickboxer (+0.7 to -1.6 strike differential per minute at distance).
Bets
- Parlay (+133, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Veronica Hardy wins by Decision (-220) & Farid Basharat wins by Decision (-165); parlay to -240 and -205
Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Austin Vanderford
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Ramiz Brahimaj | -298 |
| Austin Vanderford | +240 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -280/+210 |
Projection: Vanderford (64.4%)
Ramiz Brahimaj is one of my two projected underdog moneylines offering actionable value for Saturday; I set the Bronx native as a +181 underdog, compared to listed odds as high as +260.
Brahimaj, a former IBJJF no-gi World Champion, possesses an excellent submission skillset, including a lethal guillotine that he'll look to lock up against a proactive wrestler in Vanderford. Brahimaj considered retirement during a two-year layoff from the UFC, but is now back healthy and happy, with a 2-1 record since his return, and is training at Valle Flow in Chicago alongside Belal Muhammad, Ignacio Bahamondes, and other UFC-level talent.
Brahimaj has previously struggled with cardio in extended fights, but appears to have improved his overall skills—and conditioning—since returning to action.
If Vandeford cannot consistently land takedowns or consolidate top position – against an opponent with a far more dangerous submission game than his own – Brahimaj should keep things competitive on the feet, and find opportunities to close the show.
Bet Ramiz Brahimaj to +200 for Saturday, and consider his odds to win inside the distance (projected +339, listed +380) down to +360, or his odds to win in Round 1 (+700); a feat he has accomplished in each of his four UFC wins, and 11 of 12 career victories.
Bets
- Ramiz Brahimaj (+260, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to +200
- Ramiz Brahimaj wins Inside the Distance (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +360
Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov
| Welterweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Punahele Soriano | -325 |
| Nikolay Veretennikov | +260 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -180/+140 |
Projection: Soriano (75.2%)
I don't project value on either the side or total for this welterweight bout; however, I do show a slight edge on the favorite, Puna Soriano, to win by KO/TKO (projected +118, listed +140), which you can take down to around +125.
I'd expect him to utilize his state champion wrestling base to take Veretennikov down and land ground and pound from top position.
On the feet, Soriano carries significant power in his left hand and has finished nine of his 11 career wins inside of six minutes. Still, he tends to fade in the second half of his matchups, and his power doesn't necessarily carry into the latter part of his fights.
As a result, you could likely optimize by betting Soriano to win by KO/TKO in Round 1 (+310) or playing him in an SGP with the Under 1.5 Rounds (+200 at DraftKings); I likely prefer the latter.
Either way, I'd look to target Veretennikov live after five minutes, provided that he hasn't absorbed too much damage – or lost a 10-8 round – to that point.
Bets
- SGP: Punahele Soriano & Under 1.5 Rounds (+200, 0.1u) at Draftkings; bet to +155
- Nikolay Verettennikov Live after Round 1
Patchy Mix vs. Jakub Wiklacz
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Patchy Mix | -310 |
| Jakub Wiklacz | +250 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -154/+120 |
Projection: Patchy Mix (78.7%)
Former Bellator champion Patchy Mix dropped an extremely underwhelming decision to Mario Bautista as a -174 underdog in his UFC debut, and will now face former KSW champion Jakub Wiklacz – as an even more significant favorite – in his sophomore outing.
Mix is the better athlete – and wrestler – but Wiklacz has a jiu-jitsu black belt, and has recorded 10 of 16 career wins by submission; I'd expect Mix to gain top position in the fight, but anticipate that Wiklacz will survive on bottom and potentially set up opportunities to lock in a triangle.
This is also a matchup where Mix could have a rare, clear striking advantage. Still, Wiklacz, like Mix, has extensive fight-round experience for a UFC debutant – as a champion of a high-level regional promotion – and I'd expect him to hang tough until the final bell.
I project value both on Mix's moneyline (projected -369; bet to -330) and for the fight to reach a decision (projected -149, listed -120). Moreover, I show correlated value on Mix to win by decision (projected +119, listed +175), which I would bet down to +130.
Bets
- Patchy Mix wins by Decision (+175, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +130
Macy Chiasson vs. Yana Santos
| Women's Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Macy Chiasson | -198 |
| Yana Santos | +164 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -250/+190 |
Projection: Macy Chiasson (66%)
Macy Chiasson was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Bantamweight limit.
A former Featherweight, Chiasson is huge for the division (4" taller, 5" reach advantage), but by the numbers, Santos is the superior striker (+1.7 to +0.3 differential per minute at distance).
Still, Chiasson is the better offensive wrestler (4.9 attempts per five minutes), and Santos only has a 56% defensive takedown rate. Although the pair has a similar control rate (60% vs. 57%) compared to their combined cage time, Santos's defensive takedown rate is notably lower.
I projected the GTD on this fight at north of -300, compared to the listed odds of -210; bet the distance or decision prop up to -257.
Alternatively, I projected Chiasson to win the fight by decision just over 50% of the time (-103, or 50.8% implied), compared to the listed odds of +160, and would take that prop down to +120.
Bets
- Macy Chiasson wins by Decision (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +120
Daniel Santos vs. Joo Sang Yoo
| Catchweight (153 lbs.) Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Daniel Santos | -155 |
| Joo Sang Yoo | +130 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -166/+130 |
Projection: Daniel Santos
I projected Daniel "Willycat" Santos as a -186 favorite for Saturday's tilt with Korea's "Zombie Jr." – Joo Sang Yoo – and I would bet the Brazilian up to -170 for this catchweight bout.
Yoo is a strong boxer, with a 4" reach advantage, but Santos is the more aggressive striker and the superior grappler, with better wins and a more battle-tested strength of schedule.
Both fighters are hittable, defending roughly 50% of opposing strikes, compared to 60%+ for elite defensive strikers. However, neither has suffered a knockout loss in their professional careers, and I believe that Santos has the better hardware of the pair.
Yoo scored a knockout win over Jeka Saragih in his promotional debut, but I don't rate that win as anything better than a Contender Series victory, nor do I view him as a future champion or title contender, given that he is already 31 years old.
I'd expect Willycat to weaponize his pace and pressure over 15 minutes, and to find himself controlling Yoo from top position for significant portions of the fight.
Take the favorite on the moneyline, and consider his decision prop (projected +130, listed +185) with both fighters cutting fewer pounds for this catchweight bout.
Bets
- Daniel Santos (-148, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -170
Chris Gutierrez vs. Farid Basharat
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Farid Basharat | -485 |
| Chris Gutierrez | +370 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -298/+220 |
Projection: Farid Basharat (87.5%)
I consider the unbeaten, younger Farid Basharat as the better of the two Basharat brothers. However, neither Farid nor his brother Javid offers much power or finishing upside in their matchups – often forcing them to fight to a decision on relatively thin margins.
Farid has a 4" reach advantage over Chris Gutierrez. Still, the American is the far more efficient striker – outlanding opponents by 3.0 strikes per minute at distance, compared to less than one (0.7) for Basharat.
However, Basharat has the grappling upside (attempts 6.7 takedowns per five minutes at distance), and Gutierrez (70% takedown defense) has shown a tendency to get stuck on bottom against opponents (career 85% control rate for Basharat; 16% for Gutierrez).
I project an edge on Basharat's moneyline (projected -700) and would consider utilizing him as a parlay piece up to -650. However, I'd prefer to bet his decision prop (projected -215, listed -165) up to -195.
Bets
- Farid Basharat wins by Decision (straight bet to -195; parlay piece to -205).
Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Muniz
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Edmen Shahbazyan | -325 |
| Andre Muniz | +260 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | +100/-130 |
Projection: Edmen Shahbazyan (75.1%)
Edmen Shahbazyan has shown a tendency to fade – after a fast start – throughout his MMA career, so it was encouraging to see him secure a decision last out in the UFC, against Andre Petroski.
At age 27, Shahbazyan is an explosive athlete still in his physical prime, and he should have a significant speed and technical striking advantage over third-degree jiu-jitsu black belt Andre Muniz.
In fact, it's difficult to see where Muniz – who also slows as his fights extend – finds the ability to win minutes against Shahbazyan without finishing; aside from completing a back take and holding position for the duration of the round.
Muniz, at 35 years old, doesn't have the striking ability to stay competitive with Shahbazyan on the feet, nor the durability to survive extensive damage.
As a result, while I project value on Shahbazyan to win by decision (projected +455, listed +650), if im placing any bet on this matchup I'd likely prefer an SGP with Shahbazyan and the Over 1.5 (+200); as even his pointspread (-7.5, -245) is juiced too closely toward his moneyline.
Still, while Shahbazyan showed his composure against Petroski, this binary matchup is tailor-made for a highlight reel finish, against an elder jiu-jitsu practitioner who sustained a TKO loss to Ikram Aliskerov in March.
Shahbazyan KO1 (+180) seems like an extremely likely outcome, and I'm happy to pass on anything related to this fight extending.
Bets
Ateba Gautier vs. Tre’ston Vines
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Ateba Gautier | -1650 |
| Tre'ston Vines | +950 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | TBD |
Projection: Ateba Gautier (91.5%)
Tre'ston Vines is stepping in for Ozzy Diaz on short notice, to make his UFC debut against vicious power puncher Ateba Gautier.
Gautier is the far bigger man (3" taller, 2" reach advantage) and the more explosive athlete, and while we don't have many prop lines available for this matchup as of Friday, I did see an Under 1.5 juiced to about -800, with Gautier by KO/TKO at -900.
I'd personally make his KO line around -870, but aside from betting on Gautier to win by Round 1 KO/TKO (listed at -210) as a parlay piece, I'm not sure if I could find an actionable way to bet on this contest.
While I'm not in the business of giving out Round 1 props below even money – let alone -200 – Vines has a trio of Round 1 TKO losses in his regional career; this is matchmaking specifically meant for Gautier to get a clip on his highlight reel.
Bets
Abus Magomedov vs. Joe Pyfer
| Middleweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Joe Pyfer | -245 |
| Abus Magomedov | +200 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -160/+124 |
Projection: Joe Pyfer (76.3%)
Both Abus Magomedov and Joe Pyfer are fast starters who tend to exploit lesser opponents early, before their effectiveness wanes in the latter half of their fights.
Magomedov is the bigger man, with a 3" reach advantage. Still, Pyfer carries more natural power, is more aggressive applying forward pressure, and he's in his physical prime – six years younger than his 35-year-old opponent.
From an athletic standpoint, I also favor Pyfer's gas tank and durability, which I wouldn't say is a weakness against most of his potential opponents, and I expect Pyfer to finish Magomedov in the second or third round.
I projected Pyfer's knockout prop at +102, and set his inside the distance odds at -125, compared to listed odds of +143 and -110. Take those props to +110 or -120, respectively.
Bets
- Joe Pyfer wins Inside the Distance (-109, 0.25u) at UniBet; bet to -115
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal
| Featherweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Youssef Zalal | -500 |
| Josh Emmett | +360 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Rounds | -315/+235 |
Projection: Youssef Zalal (81%)
I have bet Youssef Zalal to finish each of his past four fights (all wins) since returning to the UFC for a second stint in March of 2024. After failing to put away Calvin Kattar, however, he'll fight the man directly ahead of him in the rankings, 40-year-old Josh Emmett.
Zalal and Emmett were the two fighters who hung toughest against Ilia Topuria during his ascent up the Featherweight ladder. A lesser version of Zalal closed as a -140 favorite and took a round against Topuria in a short-notice debut for the future champ, while Emmett hung around with Ilia for 25 minutes; the only other opponent aside from Zalal that Topuria did not finish in professional MMA.
Zalal – who is 11 years younger than Emmett – is the bigger man (4" taller, 2" reach), the much quicker mover, and the more efficient distance striker (+2.2 to -0.9 strike differential per minute); still, Emmett carries significantly more power, which should make up for the volume differential.
Zalal has relied upon his offensive grappling during his current winning streak, and Emmett comes from a wrestling base. Still, Emmett hasn't shown great takedown defense, and given Zalal's proactive pace (4.6 attempts per five minutes) and superior quickness, I'd expect the Moroccan Devil to get this fight to the mat—and to advance to dominant positions.
I project value on the fight to end inside the distance (projected +161, listed +200) and on Zalal to win inside the distance (projected +263, listed +359 in an SGP at Caesars) ,and would bet those props to +175 and +290, respectively.
He looks like a completely different fighter – both technically and athletically – relative to his first UFC stint, and father time should eventually to catch up with Emmett, who is bound to show athletic decline given his age and weight class (average age of 32), either in this fight, his next, or the one after that.
Bets
- Youseef Zalal wins Inside the Distance (+359, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +290
Jiri Prochazka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Jiri Prochazka | -205 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | +170 |
| Over/Under 1.5 Rounds | -145/+114 |
Projection: Jiri Prochazka (58.2%)
Jiri Prochazka is the bigger man (2" taller, 4" reach) than Khalil Rountree Jr., but he's one of the worst defensive strikers in the sport (43% striking defense), keeping his hands low in a bladed stance, where he is also highly vulnerable to low kicks.
I view Rountree as the more technical striker and expect him to stay competitive with Jiri on the feet, at the very least, if not prove the outright better kickboxer as Jiri adjusts to his southpaw stance.
Prochazka should have the grappling edge in this fight, but he rarely shoots (five career attempts; three landed), and I don't see it being a significant part of his game plan, even though Rountree (59% takedown defense, 15% control rate) can be exploited in the grappling.
Along with Ramiz Brahimaj, Khalil Rountree is the other underdog that I circled as a potential value bet for Saturday; I projected his moneyline odds at +139, and would bet him down to +150.
Moreover, I set his KO/TKO odds at +299, and would bet his knockout prop down to +325.
Bets
- Khalil Rountree (+175, 0.35u) at BetWay; bet to +150
- Khalil Rountree wins by KO/TKO (+360, 0.15u) at FanDuel; bet to +325
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Cory Sandhagen
| Bantamweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | -440 |
| Cory Sandhagen | +340 |
| Over/Under 4.5 Rounds | -360/+260 |
Projection: Merab Dvalishvili (68.2%)
While my models projects value on the underdog, Cory Sandhagen (projected +260) in this Bantamweight title bout, I'm unconvinced that he has the skillset to win consistent minutes against Merab Dvalishvili – arguably the best minute winner in the history of the sport.
Sandhagen is the bigger man (5" taller, 2" reach advantage) and a far more dynamic striker than Merab (+1.7 to +1.0 differential per minute) but the champion sets the most ridiculous grappling pace you will ever seen in an MMA fight (attempts 9.4 takedowns per five minutes; 36% accuracy); in 249 minutes of fight time, Merab has attempted 272 takedowns – which is staggering.
Moreover, Merab has controlled 88% of grappling positions in the clinch or on the ground – compared to 65% for Sandhagen, who is a better offensive grappler than he is defensively (63% takedown defense). I feel that Sandhagen is a superior jiu-jitsu practitioner compared to the likes of Sean O'Malley, for instance. However, if Merab doesn't give him the space to separate and operate, Sandhagen is going to have to consistently defend takedowns and scramble away, while also finding spots to mix in offense.
And unless Sandhagen can intercept him on entry with a knee or land some other fight-altering shot, I don't see how he consistently wins this matchup.
Merab has been wobbled in the past – most notably by Marlon Moraes – and if he does drop an early round due to a wobble or big moment for Sandhagen, I would look to live bet Merab anytime after Round 1; he eventually drowns all of his opponents with pace, pressure, and superior cardio.
In terms of betting this matchup pre-fight, I show a slight edge on the fight ending inside the distance (projected +223, listed +240) compared to the market.
While I'm not overly enthusiastic about the bet, I think Sandhagen needs a finish to win, but we haven't seen him forced to fight at Merab's pace yet. I'd anticipate that Sandhagen will overcommit to getting up from a takedown and put himself in a bad position to get finished; Merab continues to add new wrinkles to and improve his top control in every outing, and his teammate Alajamin Sterling finishes Sandhagen in under 90 seconds, after an immediate back take.
In addition to, or as an alternative to the fight ends ITD wager, you could also play Merab to win by submission (projected +766, listed +950) or inside the distance (projected +433, listed +440).
Bets
- Fight ends Inside the Distance (+240, 0.1u) at FanDuel; small to +230
- Merab Dvalishvili wins by Submission (+950, 0.05u) at BallyBet; small to +850
- Merab Dvalishvili Live anytime after Round 1
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira
| Light Heavyweight Bout | Odds |
|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | -265 |
| Alex Pereira | +215 |
| Over/Under 3.5 Rounds | -145/+114 |
Projection: Magomed Ankalaev (77.1%)
For additional information on Saturday's main event and middleweight title bout, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out my full fight preview.
In short, I projected Ankalaev as a -337 favorite (77.1% implied) for Saturday's rematch, and set the ends inside the distance prop at -124, compared to listed odds of -250 and -140, respectively.
Despite the relatively close optics of the first fight, I would consider using Anaklaev as a parlay piece to -300 (75% implied), or would play his inside the distance odds to +144 (41.1% implied) compared to a projected line of +132 (43.1% implied), rather than attempting to thread the needle on either his KO/TKO prop (projected +185, listed +290) or submission prop (projected +1197, listed +1500).
Lastly, I would reiterate, as I did for the first fight, the potential for a live bet on Ankalaev at a better price anytime after Round 1, particularly if he hasn't grappled to that point in the fight.
Bets
- Magomed Ankalev wins Inside the Distance (+195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +144
- Magomed Ankalaev Live anytime after Round 1
Sean Zerillo's UFC 320 Picks & Predictions
For additional notifications about UFC 320 bets, follow me in the Action Network App.
Moneyline Bets
- Ramiz Brahimaj (+260, 0.25u) at BetMGM; bet to +200
- Daniel Santos (-148, 0.5u) at DraftKings; bet to -170
- Khalil Rountree (+175, 0.35u) at BetWay; bet to +150
Prop Bets and Totals
- Ramiz Brahimaj Wins Inside the Distance (+380, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to +360
- Patchy Mix wins by Decision (+175, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +130
- Macy Chiasson wins by Decision (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +120
- Joe Pyfer wins Inside the Distance (-109, 0.25u) at UniBet; bet to -115
- Youseef Zalal wins Inside the Distance (+359, 0.15u) at Caesars; bet to +290
- Khalil Rountree wins by KO/TKO (+360, 0.15u) at FanDuel; bet to +325
- Dvalishvili/Sandhagen, Fight ends Inside the Distance (+240, 0.1u) at FanDuel; small to +230
- Merab Dvalishvili wins by Submission (+950, 0.05u) at BallyBet; small to +850
- Magomed Ankalev wins Inside the Distance (+195, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +144
Parlays
- Parlay (+133, 0.25u) at FanDuel: Veronica Hardy wins by Decision (-220) & Farid Basharat wins by Decision (-165); parlay to -240 and -205
- SGP: Punahele Soriano & Under 1.5 Rounds (+200, 0.1u) at DraftKings; bet to +155
Live Bets
- Nikolay Verettennikov Live after Round 1
- Merab Dvalishvili Live anytime after Round 1
- Magomed Ankalaev Live anytime after Round 1
