UFC Vancouver was supposed to feature a middleweight headliner between exciting grapplers Reinier de Ridder and Anthony Hernandez, in what was likely a title eliminator. Hernandez was forced out due to an injury, so instead we get Brendan Allen — a fellow grappler but not one who is likely in line for a title shot, even with a win. Before that, we have our usual assortment of local talent, with seven Canadian fighters on the card.
The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the entire event airing on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vancouver odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vancouver Predictions & Luck Ratings
Reinier de Ridder (-198) vs. Brendan Allen (+164)
The main event in Vancouver lost some steam when Anthony Hernandez was forced out of the bout, leading to his former opponent, Brendan Allen, stepping in as his replacement. This is still a fun fight between two grappling-heavy middleweights, but the stakes are much lower as Allen is pretty far from a title shot.
Reinier de Ridder is 4-0 with three stoppages since coming to the UFC, including a knockout of previously undefeated Bo Nickal and a split decision against former champion Robert Whittaker. RDR is 21-2 overall as a pro, with both of his losses coming at heavier weight classes against ONE two-division champion Anatoly Malykhin. That de Ridder was even willing to attempt a fight at heavyweight speaks to how massive he is for the division, and he has a considerable size edge over Allen.
Allen is a solid grappler who loses fights against opponents he can't take down, and wins fights against opponents he can. The Dutch Knight almost certainly falls in the former category, and at worst would cause problems for Allen even if he did get things to the mat. Neither man is an especially strong striker, but de Ridder has shown tremendous strides in that area, particularly in the Nickal fight.
Plus, Allen took a five-round fight on somewhat short notice, which is never helpful, even if the fight is unlikely to last all 25 minutes.
RDR was briefly as low as -185 odds but is catching the early action, with the best available price on Monday afternoon -195 at ESPNBet. I don't expect that line to last, so I'm grabbing it ASAP. You can find and bet the best current odds via Playbook, by following this link.
Verdict: de Ridder Undervalued
Aiemann Zahabi (-130) vs. Marlon Vera (+110)
After starting his UFC career with a 1-2 record, Aiemann Zahabi disappeared for two years during the pandemic and came back a different fighter. Since then, he's gone 6-0, including a win over the legendary Jose Aldo in Aldo's (re)retirement fight.
However, Zahabi may be running out of time. The brother of legendary coach Firas Zahabi, Aiemann got a late start to his UFC career, and will be a month short of his 38th birthday when the cage door closes on Saturday.
I have a feeling the market thinks he's the younger man in his matchup against Marlon "Chito" Vera, since Vera has been a UFC bantamweight for more than a decade. He's still just 32, though, and has taken more than a year off since we last saw him lose a 29-28 decision to Deiveson Figueiredo. That was probably a good move, since the damage was starting to add up after 24 UFC fights.
More than 60% of Tapology picks have been on Zahabi, but the line has shifted to Vera after opening with him as a +140 underdog. I'm putting a half unit on Vera at DraftKings, and saving another half unit for a live bet on the infamously slow-starting former title challenger.
Verdict: Vera Undervalued
Matt Frevola (-125) vs. Kyle Nelson (+105)
In retrospect, Matt Frevola's three-fight winning streak isn't quite as impressive as it seemed at the time. Two of the fighters he knocked out in that span went 0-2 following losses to Frevola and have since left the promotion. The only fighter to pick up a win after losing to "Steamrolla" is Drew Dober, who has gone 1-3 with two knockout losses since then.
Frevola has also lost two straight, both by knockout, as his game plan of brawling and relying on his chin becomes less viable with each passing knockdown.
That is a problem against Canadian Kyle Nelson, a dangerous striker with two knockouts in his four UFC wins. He saw his three-fight winning streak snapped in a knockout loss against Steve Garcia last September, but has had more than a year off and is moving up to lightweight, both of which should help his durability.
It wouldn't shock me to see either man knocked out quickly here, but I have slightly more faith in the chin of Nelson, especially at underdog odds. I'm not sure they'll last long, though, as he's been bet down after opening at +115.
FanDuel still has +110 but won't for long, so get it while you can. I'm putting a half unit on Nelson and saving another half for the under or the "fight to end in knockout" prop.
Verdict: Nelson Undervalued
