After one of the more entertaining cards in a while last week at UFC 320, the UFC stays on the road with UFC Rio. The main event features fan-favorite Charles Oliveira in an exciting lightweight matchup against Mateusz Gamrot.
The 13-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the entire event airing on ESPN+.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Rio odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Rio Predictions & Luck Ratings
Mateusz Gamrot (-118) vs. Charles Oliveira (-102)
I'm always a fan of closely lined main events, such as the one we have at UFC Rio. Former champion Charles Oliveira comes in as just a slight underdog to Mateusz Gamrot, with some slight early movement after Gamrot opened at plus-money.
Gamrot has been on the cusp of a title shot at multiple points in his UFC career, but has failed to break through against top competition. His three career losses have been against Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush, and Guram Kutateladze — with the Hooker and Kutateladze fights both split decisions that a majority of fans polled scored for Gamrot. However, he also picked up an undeserved decision over Arman Tsarukyan, so it almost balances out.
Oliveira has seen the judges' scorecards just five times in 35 UFC fights, with his only split decision a loss to Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Since then, he's beaten Michael Chandler, before being quickly dispatched by Ilila Topuria for the UFC lightweight title this June.
While Oliveira is only about a year older than Gamrot, he has way more miles on the odometer. He's fought 35 times in the UFC, while Gamrot also has just 28 career fights. Oliveira has also been knocked out five times — five more than Gamrot.
The only thing preventing me from listing Gamrot as undervalued is that he was a somewhat short-notice replacement for Rafael Fiziev, and he's going to enemy territory for a five-round fight. He might have a hard time getting any close rounds in Rio, and there's also some concern about how he holds up in the later rounds. For that reason, I'm not betting it yet, but it also wouldn't shock me if the line continued to go towards Gamrot.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Jhonata Diniz (-112) vs. Mario Pinto (-108)
As recently as Sunday night, Jhonata Diniz was a +110 underdog for his heavyweight matchup against Mario Pinto.
That's pretty considerable line movement in a short time, with the market adjusting his odds of winning about 5% overnight, well before most UFC gamblers even begin to look at the card. I view that as a strong signal about which side the sharps are on, especially considering that about three-quarters of Tapology Predictions are on Pinto.
It also lines up nicely with my read on the situation. Diniz is a former kickboxing heavyweight champion, whose lone career UFC loss came when Marcin Tybura finished him on the ground. Pinto has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and was dropped by Austen Lane in his last fight before coming back to get the finish. The same Lane that Diniz dispatched fairly easily, taking just 11 standing strikes before knocking Lane out.
Without the loss to Tybura, Diniz would have opened as a favorite, and it looks like he'll close as one, thanks to sharp action. Pinto won't be able to recreate Tybura's approach, and Diniz is the more technical striker, so I want to get in on Diniz now. FanDuel still has Diniz at +100, but won't for long — but I'd play him down to -120.
Verdict: Diniz Undervalued
Valter Walker (-298) vs. Mohammed Usman (+240)
The first of three heavyweight fights at UFC Rio is a battle of the less-accomplished brothers of UFC fighters. Kamaru Usman's older brother, Mohammed, takes on the younger (half) brother of Johnny Walker.
Valter is off to quite a strange start to his UFC career. After losing a forgettable decision in his debut, he's now pulled off three consecutive wins via heel hook submission. As best I can tell, there have been six heel hook wins in UFC heavyweight history, with Walker accounting for half of them.
However, it's unclear if he's any good at, well, anything else. He's defended just 42% of the strikes he's faced, and most of the takedowns he's been credited for were really just heel hook entries from his back that he used to sweep his opponent to a neutral position.
Mohammed Usman was a state champion wrestler in high school, and isn't easy to take down. More importantly, at this point, he has to be aware of the heel hook threat. A threat that is somewhat easily solved (in MMA) by just walking away and forcing Walker to stand back up if he rolls for legs.
For that reason, I'm taking a sprinkle on Usman, whose line had climbed as high as +260 before cooler heads prevailed and brought it down to a best price of +240. Except for at ESPNBet, where, as of the time of writing, the line has yet to come back down. That's the best option, though I'd gladly take the +240s available elsewhere if need be.
Verdict: Usman Undervalued
