Find my Chiasson vs. Santos prediction for UFC 320 on Saturday, October 4, with my betting pick and prediction.
Macy Chiasson vs. Yana Santos Odds
| Chiasson Odds | -200 |
| Santos Odds | +170 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-260 / +190) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas |
| Bout Time | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC 320 odds as of Saturday and via bet365. Bet on UFC 320 with our bet365 promo code. | |
Here's my Chiasson vs. Santos pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Chiasson | Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 11-4-0 | 16-8-0 (1 NC) |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:14 | 12:36 |
| Height | 5'11" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 68" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 7/27/1991 | 11/11/1989 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.49 | 4.42 |
| SS Accuracy | 46% | 58% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.68 | 3.07 |
| SS Defense | 45% | 52% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.08 | 0.87 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 50% |
| TD Def | 71% | 53% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Chiasson vs. Santos Pick, Prediction
Macy Chiasson was the only fighter to miss weight on Friday, coming in 2.5 pounds over the Bantamweight limit.
A former Featherweight, Chiasson is huge for the division (4" taller, 5" reach advantage), but by the numbers, Santos is the superior striker (+1.7 to +0.3 differential per minute at distance).
Still, Chiasson is the better offensive wrestler (4.9 attempts per five minutes), and Santos only has a 56% defensive takedown rate. Although the pair has a similar control rate (60% vs. 57%) compared to their combined cage time, Santos's defensive takedown rate is notably lower.
I projected the GTD on this fight at north of -300, compared to the listed odds of -210; bet the distance or decision prop up to -257.
Alternatively, I projected Chiasson to win the fight by decision just over 50% of the time (-103, or 50.8% implied), compared to the listed odds of +160, and would take that prop down to +120.
Projection: Macy Chiasson (66%)
Sean's Pick:
- Macy Chiasson wins by Decision (+160, 0.25u) at FanDuel; bet to +120
