Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson Odds
| Figueiredo Odds | +270 |
| Jackson Odds | -340 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188/+145) |
| Location | Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro Brazil |
| Bout Time | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Rio odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Rio with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson prediction for UFC Rioon Saturday, October 11, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo is clinging to title relevance at 135lbs, after dropping back-to-back fights for the first time in his 13-year career. He needs to get back on track with a win over Montel Jackson to have any hope of making it back to a title fight, since at 37 years old he doesn't have many opportunities left. On the other hand, Jackson has won six in a row, and now gets a chance to prove he's a true contender with a win over a former champion.
Here's my Figueiredo vs. Jackson pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Figueiredo | Jackson | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 24-5-1 | 15-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 12:38 | 10:24 |
| Height | 5'5" | 5'10" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 68" | 75" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 12/18/1987 | 4/24/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.82 | 3.22 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.64 | 1.39 |
| SS Defense | 49% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.69 | 3.24 |
| TD Acc | 35% | 62% |
| TD Def | 58% | 68% |
| Submission Avg | 1.4 | 0.4 |
Three of the wins on Jackson's streak have come during the first round, proving that his nickname "Quick" is well deserved. What hasn't been quick is how often he makes the walk to the cage. Assuming this fight goes off as planned, this will be the first time Jackson has fought twice in a calendar year since 2021. That's been the biggest obstacle to his climb up the rankings so far.
My guess is that a large part of his inactivity is due to his massive size for the division. At 5'10", Jackson isn't the tallest bantamweight on the roster, but he's close, and carries more muscle mass than fighters like 5'11" Cory Sandhagen. All of that size means a terrible weight cut that likely takes months of preparation, forcing Jackson to only accept fights with plenty of prior warning, and to need extended periods to recover after his appearances.
It also gives him huge power for the division and makes him a nightmare to grapple with. On his current six-fight winning streak, Jackson has landed a ridiculous nine knockdowns. His 1.56 knockdowns per 15 minutes are about ten times the divisional average, and he's never been knocked down himself. Both of his career losses came via decisions, and in one of those, he scored a knockdown in the first round before losing the second and third frames.
What makes this matchup so interesting is that all of the above could've been said about Figueiredo during his time at flyweight, where he was one of the division's biggest fighters, but struggled with a massive weight cut that eventually became too much to deal with as Figueiredo aged into his mid-30s.
It's been two years since "Deus da Guerra" made the jump to bantamweight, and it initially looked like he was on track to challenge for another title. While his power was clearly diminished once he started taking on opponents his own size, his skills held up, and he was able to be more effective later in fights since he wasn't shedding so much weight. He picked up three straight wins at 135lbs, including a submission over former champion Cody Garbrandt, before losing a lopsided decision to Petr Yan.
That fight was the first time that Figueiredo looked old, and he was outclassed by Yan in both the striking and grappling portions of the fight. It got worse from there, though. Figueiredo went on to fight Sandhagen in May, and was outstruck 54 to 6 before a Sandhagen leg entanglement on the ground caused some sort of knee injury.
The bad news there is two-fold. First, Jackson poses similar difficulties on the feet as Sandhagen, except with an even larger reach edge. That will make it hard for Figueiredo to get close enough to grapple, which is probably his only path to victory here.
Second, this is a fairly quick turnaround for a 37-year-old fighter coming off what looked like a somewhat significant knee injury. I'd be wary of a fighter in their 20s making that turnaround, much less one who is clearly on the back nine of their career.
Figueiredo vs. Jackson Pick, Prediction
If both men were in their primes, this would be an extremely interesting fight. Jackson's two losses have been in fights where superior grapplers took him down, draining his gas tank and making him less dangerous on the feet.
However, it's hard to see Figueiredo being able to walk that path at this point in his career. The combination of a huge size disadvantage and recent knee injury is a lot to overcome, and I'm not sure the Brazilian can do it.
If Figueiredo isn't fully healthy, I also expect Jackson to be able to handle things fairly quickly. His odds to win inside the distance are +180 at DraftKings, with first-round stoppage odds of +400. While I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a swing at the latter, the price difference isn't quite enough for me, so I'll take Jackson to get a finish at +180.
Billy's Pick: Montel Jackson Inside the Distance +180 (DraftKings)
