Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Rio (Saturday, October 11)

Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds

Check out the Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot prediction for UFC Rioon Saturday, October 11, with my betting preview and breakdown.

On Saturday, the UFC returns to the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for a 12-fight card, featuring a showdown in the lightweight division between former champion and No. 4 contender Charles "Do Bronx" Oliveira and No. 8-ranked Mateusz Gamrot.

Oliveira is just months removed from his brutal knockout loss at UFC 317 against Ilia Topuria, his fifth career loss by KO or TKO. However, he remains the most violent fighter in the history of the promotion, with the UFC record for submissions (16) and finishes (20). Just five of his 35 UFC bouts have seen the scorecards.

Poland's Mateusz Gamrot enters with an 8-3 promotional record, including a pair of split decision losses to Guram Kutateladze and Dan Hooker. However, he has only truly finished three of his eight UFC wins, with an additional injury TKO against Rafael Fiziev. Still, Do Bronx could force "Gamer" to be more aggressive than he is accustomed to.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Rio Main Event on Saturday and utilize those factors to bet on these Lightweights. They should make their cage walks at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET (6:45 p.m. PT) on Saturday.

Here's my Oliveira vs. Gamrot pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

Charles Oliveira is the bigger man (4" reach advantage) than Mateusz Gamrot, and he also has a more diverse array of offensive striking techniques, carries more power, and has proven the more efficient striker at distance (-0.1 to -0.4 strike differential per minute) against a more difficult strength of schedule than Gamrot.

Neither fighter is exceptionally durable; Gamrot has been knocked down four times across 11 UFC bouts, but he has demonstrated excellent recoverability and has never been finished as a professional.

Conversely, Oliveira is much more of a glass cannon – with five career knockout losses, while getting knocked down in other fights against Islam Makhachev, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Michael Chandler, and David Teymur.

Gamrot is the far more conscientious defensive striker (59% vs. 48% striking defense); Charles pressures forward but leaves his head on the center line and is there to get countered, whereas Gamrot's head and feet are constantly in motion.

Statistically, Charles remains the more efficient striker. Still, I worry about his durability in an extended striking matchup, given his recent recovery from a knockout loss (and a violent one at that). Fighters in their late 30s also tend to lose some speed and explosiveness after sustaining that type of damage.

As decorated a submission grappler as Oliveira is, Gamrot is the superior wrestler, and the fighter likelier to consolidate takedowns and generate top time in this matchup. Gamrot averages 7.3 takedown attempts per five minutes at distance – compared to 4.8 for Oliveira. Still, Charles is often far too willing to accept takedowns (58% career defense vs. 91% for Gamrot) and hunt for submissions from guard off of his back.

As a result, Gamrot has controlled 90% of clinch and ground time in the UFC, compared to 49% for Oliveira. I'd expect Gamrot to drain the clock from the top position and land damage if he's able to pass Oliveira's guard.

Gamrot isn't necessarily a power puncher, but rather an excellent point fighter; still, this does seem like a spot for him to catch the chin of an opponent who has questionable durability to begin with, and was knocked out so recently.

Oliveria remains one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport — and if he's able to keep the fight at striking range, I'd expect him to have success; still, Gamrot doesn't permit any opponent to settle into their preferred style of fight, and his proactive chain wrestling will ensure a high pace for the duration of a potential 25-minute matchup.

I'd expect that pace to eventually wear on Oliveria — who struggled badly in the fifth round against Michael Chandler — the longer the fight goes.

As a result, you could look to live bet Gamrot after the first round or two, assuming he's trailing or the fight is tied — before his superior gas tank likely proves advantageous in the back half of this matchup.

Oliveira vs. Gamrot Pick, Prediction

Charles Oliveira is an extremely popular selection this week; the data samples I incorporate into my model to balance public perception indicate that Oliveira wins this fight around 65% of the time, compared to a pick'em line.

As a result, my model projected Mateusz Gamrot as a -139 favorite (58.2% implied), and I would bet his moneyline up to -128 (56.2% implied) at a two percent edge compared to my projection. And to reiterate, you can target Gamrot live anytime after Round 1 at a similar price or better.

I also show an edge on the fight to go to a decision (projected +138, listed +182). Still, my model, which balances prop lines relative to divisional baselines and betting odds, doesn't factor in that Oliveira was knocked out mere months ago. I'm particularly concerned about his durability returning so soon from such a brutal loss, and will have to parse through data — to incorporate into the next iteration of the model– about fighters' returning quickly from knockout losses.

I project correlated value on Gamrot to win by decision (projected +230, listed +330); however, I'd likely prefer that as a round-robin piece, if at all.

In summary, while I would certainly bet on Gamrot's moneyline — which is undervalued due to public support for the former champion – I'm far more hesitant to bet on this matchup going the distance, considering the recent run of knockdowns against both of these fighters.

Sean's Pick: Mateusz Gamrot (-110) at FanDuel; bet to -128 | Gamrot Live Anytime after Round 1