Read our UFC Rio predictions for the Saturday, October 11 event live from the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The entire card airs on ESPN+ starting at 4:00 PM ET, with the main card officially starting at 7:00.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 12-fight lineup for their UFC best bets and identified their favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
UFC Rio Moneyline Projections
UFC Rio Prop Projections
Lucas Rocha vs. Stuart Nicoll
Billy Ward, Staff Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 5:15 p.m. ET
When he first appeared on the Contender Series in 2023, I initially assumed that Lucas Rocha was related to grappling legend and former UFC fighter Vagner Rocha, who has two children (Achillies and Jasmine) who are both high-level black belt competitors.
After watching that fight and his initial appearance in the UFC, it was abundantly clear that that was not the case.
Rocha has spent a total of 12:30 or two and a half rounds inside the Octagon across two fights. In that time, he's been taken down seven times, while being controlled for eight and a half minutes. That almost certainly wouldn't happen to any of the well-known grappling Rochas.
That also makes him a great matchup for Stuart "Kamamora" Nicoll. The first UFC fighter born in the Solomon Islands, Nicoll is a strong grappler with a second-degree BJJ black belt. He now trains out of Team Compton training center in Brisbane, an up-and-coming camp that's home to Tom Nolan, as well as Road to the UFC finalist Dom Mar "Street Buddha" Fan. My initial read on his skillset prior to his UFC debut was that his striking was below UFC-level, but Nicoll should be able to find success anytime he can bring fights to the canvas.
He almost certainly will against Rocha, given his poor track record of surrendering takedowns and control time. Nicoll also has likely made big improvements to his standup game since his regional days, but didn't get much of a chance to show it in his UFC debut, since he ran right into a Jesus Aguilar guillotine. That's one of those semi-fluky things that happens sometimes and isn't much of a reason to downgrade a fighter — and he gets bonus points in my book for going out on his shield:
While Rocha will be dangerous on the feet, this fight won't spend much time there, making this a perfect bounce-back matchup for Nicoll. The best available odds on his moneyline are +105 at Caesars Sportsbook, but I'd play him down to -110.
The Pick: Nicoll +105 (Caesars)
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
Sean Zerillo, Senior Writer
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 8:15 p.m. ET
Jhonata Diniz opened around a +120 (45.5% implied) underdog for this Heavyweight bout with Mario Pinto. Still, the line has steadily ticked towards the Brazilian, moving him more than 12% in implied probability to as low as -135 (57.5% implied) for Saturday's bout.
Moreover, Pinto was a popular selection this week, being picked to win the bout 57% of the time in the public data samples that I incorporate into my model.
As a result, my model made Diniz a -170 favorite (63% implied) and I would bet his moneyline up to -157 (61% implied), at a two percent edge compared to my projection.
I bet Austen Lane (as a +420 underdog) to defeat Pinto by decision (+1200) in March, which shows you how much I think of Pinto.
Moreover, Diniz – a former GLORY kickboxer – has rarely had the opportunity to settle into a comfortable striking fight in the UFC; each of his opponents has tried to take him down.
And while Pinto may attempt to grapple, he doesn't have the credentials to do so successfully. If he does manage to land a takedown, Diniz has shown sound cardio and can rally to steal this fight late.
I expect to see a more dangerous version of Jhonata Diniz when he isn't required to wrestle defensively, and most any Heavyweight who cannot or will not proactively grapple against him would be an underdog in a distance striking matchup.
The Pick: Jhonata Diniz -125 (Betway)
