Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez Odds
| Luque Odds | +410 |
| Alvarez Odds | -550 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+110/-140) |
| Location | Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro Brazil |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ESPN+ |
| UFC Rio odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Rio with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Vicente Luque vs. Joel Alvarez prediction for UFC Rioon Saturday, October 11, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Oddsmakers have made a statement with their lofty assessment of where Joel Alvarez is heading in his career by opening this fight at such a wide number. He has been priced as a true contender, and is a massive favorite over the battle-tested veteran Vincente Luque. In a bout where finding value in the betting market may be difficult, let’s pinpoint the most likely path to victory and when it will occur on Saturday.
Here's my Luque vs. Alvarez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Luque | Alvarez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-11-1 | 22-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:28 | 7:04 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 77" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 11/27/1991 | 3/02/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.02 | 4.51 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 53% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.25 | 3.32 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 50% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.97 | 0 |
| TD Acc | 51% | 0 |
| TD Def | 61% | 40% |
| Submission Avg | 0.7 | 1.2 |
Alvarez had a size advantage over every lightweight he stepped into the cage with, and presents a tough matchup for any fighter the welterweight division has to offer. Even with his move up to a higher weight class, he will be the larger man and will have the reach advantage here.
Luque’s last appearance was against another fighter of long stature in Kevin Hollard; Luque held up at distance in terms of significant strikes landed, but it was Holland’s clinch work and slick submission attack that made the difference.
Holland landed 14 of 18 clinch strikes in the six minutes the fight lasted, which does not bode well for projecting Luque’s chances of closing the distance in an effective manner in this fight. Alvarez unleashes kicks that make him a problem at distance, yet has the ability to counter with his hands when his opponent moves forward. Luque has had a successful career leaning on his pace and aggression, but that is a very dangerous proposition against Alvarez in this spot.
Luque has been a mainstay of the welterweight division. He has now been in the UFC for over ten years, with 23 fights in the organization. With that has come an accumulation of damage that makes his fighting age more advanced than the average 33 year old.
Alvarez is 32 years old, which may not seem like much of an advantage, but he just now may be reaching his peak. In all seven of his UFC victories, he has ended things inside the distance, with only one of his opponents making it to round three.
Outside of testing the potentially suspect chin of Alvarez, I cannot envision a path to victory for Luque. As impressive as Luque has been with his wrestling when needed, bringing Alvarez to the mat would be ill-advised.
Luque is no slouch on the ground, but he has displayed some vulnerability on the mat when taking on elite submission artists, which Alvarez certainly is. Alvarez can finish this fight both on the mat and on the feet, which is why his odds to win by knockout and submission are so closely lined.
While Luque has still been competitive with some notable opponents in recent bouts, this specific matchup is not in his favor. Entering the pocket or shooting for a takedown can open himself up to a fight-changing strike and it’s unlikely he can simply land takedowns and ride control time over Alvarez.
Luque vs. Alvarez Pick, Prediction
Alvarez is one of the most dangerous finishers in the UFC today, and I expect him to make another statement at UFC Rio. The question really is what is the best way to play him at such a steep price.
We’ll have to back Alvarez to get the job done within the first ten minutes if we want to receive a minor discount on his finishing odds. Looking at FanDuel specifically, combining the Alvarez moneyline and the ‘no’ side of the fight to start round three creates a same-game parlay at the best price I’ve found in the market.
John's Pick: Alvarez ML & Fight Doesn't Start Round 3 -191 (FanDuel)
