Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Odds, Pick: How to Bet Saturday’s UFC Fight Night

Credit:

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: Edmen Shahbazyan.

  • Saturday's UFC Fight Night headliner in Las Vegas will pit favorite Edmen Shahbazyan (-335) vs. underdog Derek Brunson (+250).
  • Shahbazyan is undefeated in his career and looking to move up the UFC rankings after notching three consecutive stoppage wins.
  • Is he worth paying the heavy juice? I break down this fight and give my favorite bets Saturday night.

Derek Brunson vs. Edmen Shahbazyan Odds 

Brunson odds +250 (BET NOW)
Shahbazyan odds -335 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds (-106/-125)
(BET NOW)
Time 11 p.m. ET
Venue UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Channel ESPN

Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


No. 8 ranked middleweight Derek Brunson and No. 9 ranked middleweight Edmen Shahbazyan headline this weekend’s UFC Fight Night card at the Apex in Las Vegas. The card features 10 fights and starts with four prelims at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN with the main card beginning at 9 p.m. ET.

Shahbazyan is undefeated in his career and looking to move up the UFC rankings after notching three consecutive stoppage wins. The veteran Brunson is looking to maintain his standing in the 185-pound division and win three fights in a row for the first time since 2016.

Derek Brunson Odds History

Date & Opponent Opening & Closing Odds Results
8/17/19, Ian Heinisch +165, +110 W
5/4/19, Elias Theodorou -120, -120 W
11/27/18, Israel Adesanya +180, +200 L
1/27/18, Jacare Souza +110, -148 L
11/28/17, Lyoto Machida -160, -175 W

If Brunson closes at his current odds of +250, it would be his longest odds in any UFC fight he’e been involved in his eight year career in the UFC. His longest odds prior to this matchup was +200 against current middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, which Brunson lost by first-round TKO.

Edmen Shahbazyan Odds History

Date & Opponent Opening & Closing Odds Results
11/2/19, Brad Tavares -245, -200 W
7/6/19, Jack Marshman -380, -833 W
3/2/19, Charles Byrd -145, -165 W
11/30/18, Darren Stewart -130, -130 W

Shahbazyan has seen massive odds like this already in his short UFC career — he’s -335 at the time of writing, the second biggest favorite on the card. He has answered the bell when he’s been a huge favorite, too, finishing his past three opponents in the first round.


Tale of the Tape

Main Event Brunson Shahbazyan
Record 20-7 11-0
Avg. Fight Time 7:25 3:59
Height 6’1″ 6’2″
Weight (pounds) 185 185
Reach (inches) 77″ 74″
Stance Southpaw Orthodox
Date of birth 1/4/84 11/20/97
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.39 4.11
SS Accuracy 45% 52%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.91 2.16
SS Defense 54% 62%
Take Down Avg 2.80 6.77
TD Acc 29% 40%
TD Def 100% 75%
Submission Avg 0.5 0.8

Brunson clearly has the edge in experience and reach, but that’s probably where his advantages end in this matchup. Shahbazyan is slightly taller, has a better significant strike differential and he trumps Brunson in takedown average.

The advantage that stands out the most, though, is average fight time. Shahbazyan’s fights in the UFC have lasted just 3:59 on average, which lets you know he likes to mix it up early.

Brunson vs. Shahbazyan Betting Pick

22-year-old Edemen Shahbazyan can play the age-card against 36-year-old Derek Brunson. Rarely is there a 13-year age gap between two UFC competitors, but in 52 such fights, the younger man is 36-16 (69%) at average odds of -132 (implied 56.8%) – so they have won about 12% more frequently than expected.

It’s important to note that this is only a three-round Main Event – so stamina concerns in the deep waters of the championship rounds will not be at issue for either man. That plays to Shahbazyan’s advantage — the No. 9 middleweight contender has only been out of the first round once, in a split decision win on Dana White’s contender series.

He has very sharp hands and kicks with good power, and Brunson needs to look to get the fight to the ground and grind out a decision victory — he doesn’t want to exchange with the quicker man for long, and Shahbazyan should be able to pick him apart at a distance.

Brunson does have the reach advantage (three inches), and he could present a different look as a southpaw (53% win rate vs. orthodox fighters). Still, Shahbazyan has the superior strike metrics (+1.95 to +0.48 strike differential, +7% accuracy, +8 defense). Shahbazyan’s takedown defense (75%) and wrestling will be put to the test – but he has landed 6.77 takedowns per 15 minutes in his brief UFC career and is likely an underrated grappler.

I’ll be using Shahbazyan’s moneyline as a parlay on my bet card Saturday — you can see more of my bets here.

The Pick: Shahbazyan ML as a parlay

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]

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