Check out the Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
Former bantamweight champion Petr Yan might still be the second-best 135 lbs fighter in the world. That's a claim that needs to be continually proven, but outside of the champion Merab Dvalishvili, Yan's only losses have come via DQ or split decision. Which explains why he's a heavy favorite against a "prospect" Marcus McGhee, who is just 10-1 as a pro at 35 years old.
Here's my Yan vs. McGee pick and prediction.
Petr Yan vs. Marcus McGhee Odds
| Yan Odds | -375 |
| McGee Odds | +295 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-315/+230) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 4:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ABC |
| UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Abu Dhabi with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Yan | McGhee | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-5 | 10-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 17:17 | 8:13 |
| Height | 5'7" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 67" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 2/11/1993 | 5/7/1990 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.11 | 6.06 |
| SS Accuracy | 54% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.13 | 2.83 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 64% |
| Take Down Avg | 1.61 | 0.46 |
| TD Acc | 49% | 33% |
| TD Def | 84% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0.5 |
Based on their UFC records this fight feels like a potential passing of the torch from a former champion to an up-and-coming prospect. However, that trope is muddied by the fact that the former champion is three years younger than the "prospect," despite having much more UFC and MMA experience.
Petr Yan is an extremely well-rounded fighter with a boxing base, who continues to add to his skill set each time we see him. Yan strikes with both volume and accuracy, accumulating damage over the course of his fights, with three of his four UFC knockout victories coming in the final (scheduled) round of the bout.
Yan has also always been a competent grappler, landing seven takedowns in a dominant performance against Aljamain Sterling. That fight ended in a controversial DQ loss for Yan following an illegal knee, ending Yan's brief stint with the undisputed title.
Yan's best takedowns come via foot sweeps, which he mixes in as part of striking combos. Rather than attempt to control opponents from the top, his primary goal is to disrupt their timing and force them to repeatedly get up from the bottom, which wears on them over the course of the fight.
Yan feels perpetually on the verge of another title fight, but has been willing to stay active and fight down the rankings like in this matchup.
The biggest deficiency for Yan is his slow pace at the start of fights, which is especially notable in three-round contests. Yan typically spends the first round fighting defensively and feeling out his opponents, which is riskier when there are only two more rounds to go.
In his last six fights, he's dropped the first round on the scorecards in five of them, with every fight going to a decision. Having to sweep the second and third rounds is a risky strategy, but it's worked out for him more often than not.
McGhee has no such issue with slow starts, picking up finishes in nine of his ten professional victories. His lone decision win was the opposite of the typical Petr Yan fight, where he won each of the first two rounds before dropping the third.
McGhee is likely the more powerful striker in this matchup, though it's hard to get an accurate gauge for his ability given the much lower level of competition he's faced than Yan. Still, he has displayed the physical tools needed to be a contender at bantamweight, including an impressive 100% takedown rate.
Whether he can defend the somewhat unorthodox takedowns of Yan is a different story, and the threat of those takedowns is likely to limit McGhee's aggressiveness in striking exchanges. Still, McGhee should have some success on the feet, even against the defensively sound Yan.
Yan vs. McGhee Pick, Prediction
I'm taking a two-pronged approach to betting this fight.
The somewhat-obvious answer for most Petr Yan fights is to wait for a live bet on "No Mercy." Since he loses the first round at a fairly high rate, typically the best price on Yan is following the first frame.
He's the clear A side against an older, less experienced fighter making a huge step up in competition — but McGhee is dangerous enough that I'm not willing to lay nearly four to one on Yan. Be sure to shop around for the best price, as the lines offered at various sportsbooks tend to vary wildly.
The other bet I'm making is McGhee's +3.5 point spread. Winning the first round and surviving to the final bell covers that bet, while still leaving the door open for a live play on Yan to cash.
It's a fairly tight needle to thread, but depending on the odds we get on Yan live, there's a good chance that we'll end up profitable either way.
Billy's Pick: McGhee +3.5 Points -105 (DraftKings) | Yan Live After Round 1
