Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Abu Dhabi (Saturday, July 26)

Check out the Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.

The lone female fight on the UFC Abu Dhabi card features popular strawweights Amanda Ribas and Tabatha Ricci. Both women are perennially ranked contenders who dispatch lesser competition, while failing to put together winning streaks long enough to get them in the title picture. Whomever emerges here could change that in shallow division, so this one has plenty of relevance at 115 lbs.

Here's my Ribas vs. Ricci pick and prediction.

Amanda Ribas vs. Tabatha Ricci Odds

Tale of the Tape

As I pointed out in my Luck Ratings, the most notable thing about this fight is the similarities between both women. Both began their martial arts journeys at a young age, eventually earning black belts in both Judo and Jiu Jitsu. They also both have struggled to round out their overall games, with striking remaining an issue for both.

Of the two, Ribas has probably made the greater strides. She's split time between flyweight and strawweight which skews her statistics, but in the lighter division she's looked progressively better on the feet, culminating in her spinning wheel kick knockout of Luana Pinheiro.

Still, while the final blow was notable, it was more of a volume-based attack from Ribas as she landed more than 80 significant strikes on the feet against her fellow Brazilian.

Ricci has made strides on the feet as well, though, particularly since she began training with her boyfriend, professional boxer Callum Walsh. Unlike Ribas' more diverse attack, "Baby Shark" primarily punches on the feet. Her 61" reach is an impediment against larger opponents, though, leading to Ricci's poor striking accuracy.

She's also fairly hittable, due to her need to take risks to get into punching (and grappling) range. That's not a major risk given the lack of power in the 115lbs division, but creates bad optics for the judges.

Hopefully, this fight spends more time on the mat than on the feet, though.  That's where both women shine, with a diverse array of takedowns thanks to their Judo backgrounds.

For my money, I prefer Ricci's style of grappling for MMA. Her more compact frame allows her to maintain top position fairly well, and she's been able to stack control time form top positions at a better rate than Ribas.

Ribas is the more dynamic submission grappler, but that's a higher-variance approach. She'll sacrifice position in order to chase submissions, a strategy that is unlikely to work against a high level opponent like Ricci.

On the defensive side, Ricci is also more proactive in trying to get back to her feet, while Ribas is comfortable playing off of her back. Ricci has given up just over a minute of bottom time across the two takedowns she's surrendered in the UFC. Ribas gave up more than four minutes of control time to Mackenzie Dern in her last fight.

Ribas vs. Ricci Pick, Prediction

As I mentioned in my Luck Ratings, given how similar both women are from a stylistic and resume standpoint, I'd be willing to bet on either at plus money.

That so happens to be Tabatha Ricci this time, but after digging into the tape, I'm even more confident that she's the right side.

While I'd give Ribas the edge in a pure striking match, this one likely ends up on the canvas for large stretches. Ricci's approach to grappling is better suited to winning MMA rounds than Ribas's is, which is likely enough to edge out some close rounds.

I'm going against the market here as the line has moved as high as +170 on Ricci courtesy of ESPN Bet, but I trust my read enough to stick with my initial position.

Billy's Pick: Tabatha Ricci +170 (ESPN Bet)