Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC Abu Dhabi (Saturday, July 26)

Check out the Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.

The main card opener for UFC Abu Dhabi should provide an entertaining scrap between two light-heavyweights looking to vault themselves into top ten contender status. Nikita Krylov, a long-time UFC veteran, will be making his 20th walk to the octagon. His opponent, Bogdan Guskov, provides a stiff test in what I believe will end up being a true clash of styles given the recent performances of both men.

Here's my Krylov vs. Guskov pick and prediction.

Nikita Krylov vs. Bogdan Guskov Odds

Tale of the Tape

Nikita Krylov has taken on all comers throughout his UFC tenure having fought seven former title challengers or title holders.

It was not until a shoulder surgery forced prolonged inactivity, essentially limiting him to three fights in three years, that questions started to arise about how much longer could he perform at a high level. Being rocked or stunned by strikes were becoming more common, yet he had never been knocked out in his entire MMA career. 

His confidence in his durability is one of the reasons Krylov has been incredibly aggressive in the opening stages of his recent fights. This, of course, creates plenty of openings for his opponents to counter when he is over-extending himself. For a fighter with subpar 44% striking defense, this is a deficiency he can no longer afford to possess after suffering a brutal knockout loss to the hands of powerful striker Dominick Reyes.

Bogdan Guskov may not have the kind of speed Reyes has displayed, but his above average power combined with his aggressive nature lead me to believe Krylov’s coaches know it’s time to press his grappling edge from the opening bell.

I am expecting a much more cautious approach in the early going for Krylov, and one that sees him attempt to wrestle in the opening minute. 

Guskov’s takedown defense sits at 57% and in his last fight he was taken down fairly easily with a single-leg shot attempt in round one before putting himself in a dangerous position by giving up his back.

Krylov’s 2.2 takedowns per 15 minutes is bolstered by his fight against Volkan Oezdemir back in 2022. That matchup reminds me of this fight on Saturday, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the approach for the 33 year-old veteran is quite similar. Krylov shot a remarkable 20 takedowns attempts, 7 of which were in round one. In total, Krylov landed 7 takedowns throughout the fight en route to a unanimous decision win.

Krylov vs. Guskov Pick, Prediction

Due to the violent nature of both men, bettors are going to flock to the under 1.5 rounds prop listed at -156.

It’s easy to understand why, as three of Gustov’s last four UFC fights have gone under 1.5 rounds while four of Krylov’s last five have done the same. The issue with this prop is the fact I am expecting a more measured gameplan from the Krylov camp that could focus on testing the cardio of Guskov, prioritizing control in the early going.

Instead, I am attacking a specific specialty prop on Fanduel that allows us to cover what is the most likely win condition for each man, and we get the benefit of having more than 7.5 minutes at our disposal.

As mentioned, this is a clash of styles – if Krylov can get this fight to the mat early and often, his grappling advantage will be evident; if Krylov is unsuccessful in this quest, the questions about his chin and durability will get answered.

John's Pick: Nikita Krylov by Submission or Bogdan Gustov by KO/TKO -135 (FanDuel)