Check out the Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov prediction for UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday, July 26, with my betting preview and breakdown.
The always controversial Bryce Mitchell is looking to revive his career in a new weight class. After dropping two of his last three fights at featherweight, "Thug Nasty" is dropping down to bantamweight. The UFC isn't doing him any favors, matching him up with the always dangerous Said Nurmagomedov. Will Mitchell be able to go on a run at 135lbs, or will the new division fail to produce new results?
Here's my Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov pick and prediction.
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov Odds
| Mitchell Odds | -125 |
| Nurmagomedov Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE |
| Bout Time | 4:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | ABC |
| UFC Abu Dhabi odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Abu Dhabi with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Tale of the Tape
| Mitchell | Nurmagomedov | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 17-4 | 18-4 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:16 | 8:55 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'8" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 70" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 10/4/1994 | 4/5/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 2.44 | 3.38 |
| SS Accuracy | 59% | 47% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 1.64 | 2.25 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.27 | 1.01 |
| TD Acc | 36% | 15% |
| TD Def | 33% | 62% |
| Submission Avg | 1.3 | 1.2 |
I'm generally not a fan of fighters dropping weight classes once they're established in their careers. While it seems like a logical step — fighting smaller fighters should be easier — it's often used as a band-aid to cover up bigger issues.
That could very well be the case for Mitchell, who made a splash in his early UFC run with his exciting grappling game before plateauing against tougher competition.
The biggest issue I have with Mitchell is the lack of improvement he's shown since making his debut at 23 years old. At the time, he was considered a fairly raw prospect, but the now 30-year-old continues to be plagued by the same issues.
Mitchell is a solid wrestler with an excellent top game, but is fairly lacking in every other aspect of the sport. That's unsurprising, considering the bulk of his training is done in his garage gym, where his training partners are primarily local fighters.
There's a place for working with lower-level training partners. The best way to develop offensive skills is by working with people who don't force you to play defense, and that goes a long way in explaining Mitchell's creative submission attack.
However, when you're never forced to be the proverbial nail, it's hard to improve on your defense. That's come up often with Mitchell recently — particularly on the feet — where he's been dropped in all three of those losses.
While those came to some solid names — Ilia Topuria, Jean Silva, and Josh Emmett have knocked down a lot of people — it's still not a great sign.
Particularly against a dynamic striker like Nurmagomedov. Despsite his last name, Said is of no blood relation to Khabib, Usman, and Umar Nurmagomedov. He also fights completely differently, with a kick-heavy striking attack and only sporadic grappling.
However, he punishes opponents who attempt to grapple him with a nasty guillotine/front choke that's eerily similar to the submission that Jean Silva landed on Mitchell. Nurmagomedov has shown excellent balance when defending takedowns in earnest as well.
Nurmagomedov should also have a massive edge on the feet. He uses lead leg kicks almost as a jab, including both front and side kicks. He's looked fast against fellow bantamweights, a disparity that should be even more apparent against the larger, slower Mitchell.
The biggest concern I have for Nurmagomedov is that his kicks will make it easier for Mitchell's takedowns, especially since Nurmagomedov won't have the reach edge he typically enjoys against other bantamweights.
He'll need to rely more on lateral movement in the larger UFC cage to stay out of range, as Mitchell forcing this fight into close quarters is probably the easiest path to victory for the favorite.
Mitchell vs. Nurmagomedov Pick, Prediction
The other potential weakness of Nurmagomedov's game is his cardio. In each of his three UFC losses — all decisions — he won the first round before dropping rounds two and three.
Conversely, Mitchell has exclusively lost in the first two rounds of fights, and has generally been able to build as fights go on.
However, I have my concerns about his ability to keep that up now that he's cutting an additional ten pounds of weight. While he may be the better fighter late, I'm not sure it will be an especially dramatic difference.
I've been on Nurmagomedov all week, a stance I'm still fine with despite the line moving against me. I'm going to add an additional half-unit bet on Nurmagomedov to get this done inside the distance, though.
The best odds are +225 at DraftKings.
Billy's Pick: Nurmagomedov Inside the Distance +225 (DraftKings)
