F1 Odds, Picks & Predictions: 3 Best Bets, Including 2 Matchups, for Sunday’s 2022 Singapore Grand Prix (October 2)
Clive Mason/Getty Images. Pictured: Formula 1 drivers Sebastian Vettel (No. 5) and Daniel Ricciardo (No. 3)
Following an extended break in the Formula 1 calendar, racing resumes this weekend for the Singapore Grand Prix (7:55 a.m. ET, ESPN).
Before the break, drivers took part in the Italian Grand Prix at Monza, which Max Verstappen won for his fifth consecutive victory. As a result of his spectacular run of form, Verstappen has the chance to claim the driver’s world championship this weekend if he wins and outpaces Charles Leclerc and Sergio Perez by 22 and 13 points, respectively.
As for our bets at Monza, it was a race to forget. In an attempt to be bold – all three plays were +150 or higher – we finished 0-3 to move to 25-23 (+4.35 units) on the season.
But, we won’t be deterred, and we have three best bets for the Singapore GP below. Without any more hesitation, let’s dive right in. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at the time of writing.
F1 Picks for Singapore Grand Prix
*Odds as of Wednesday
Pierre Gasly Points Finish (+140)
Somewhat interestingly, Pierre Gasly has produced better results this season on circuits requiring speed through the corners as opposed to straight-line speed.
In four tracks at correlative circuits to Singapore – Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Baku and Belgium – Gasly has finished P10 or better in three of four, including a P5 finish in Azerbaijan a few races back. If you extend Gasly’s record at the correlative circuits back to the start of the 2020 season, bettors will find the Frenchman has posted a points finish in eight of those 12 grands prix.
Additionally, the Belgian Grand Prix marked the first race at any of this year’s correlative races in which Gasly failed to qualify inside the points.
Given Singapore is a street circuit where overtaking isn’t extremely common, that should give Gasly an advantage over the other midfield drivers as a reliable qualifier. Plus, in the most recent Singapore GP in 2019, Gasly posted a P8 finish after a steady P12 qualifying output.
For those reasons, I’ll get behind Gasly at +125 or better to register a points finish this weekend.
Sebastian Vettel (-105) over Daniel Ricciardo
There’s perhaps no greater feeling than selling Danny Ricc as a favorite in a head-to-head, so let’s do it again.
I was on Sebastian Vettel in this exact matchup in Baku, and I’m frankly shocked he’s listed as an underdog here. Not only has Vettel owned Daniel Ricciardo in the H2H matchups at correlative circuits this season, but he has raced brilliantly at this circuit, winning five times in his career.
I’ll be surprised if a win is in the cards, but he can certainly outpace Ricciardo. As mentioned earlier, Vettel has outpaced Ricciardo’s McLaren in the two races at correlative circuits in which he’s participated, including a P8 to P15 victory in Spa.
Additionally, it’s worth noting Nico Hulkenburg, Vettel’s replacement at Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, beat his old teammate Ricciardo in Saudi Arabia, meaning this car has finished ahead of the Australian in three of four correlative races.
Finally, just in the last three races overall in which they both finished, Vettel has beaten Ricciardo in a head-to-head in all three. As a result, I make Vettel a favorite in this matchup and would bet him up to -120.
Fernando Alonso (+100) over Lando Norris
I was all over Lando Norris at Monza, but I’m going to sell him this week in Singapore.
Generally, the lead McLaren driver has fared better at circuits that reward straight-line speed as opposed to speed through the corners, and he has proven an unreliable qualifier at times. In four qualifying efforts at correlative circuits, Norris has never qualified better than P10 and has three qualifying efforts outside the points.
Additionally, his average finishing position at those four circuits is 10.75 with only two efforts inside the points.
On the flip side, Alonso has proven himself much more consistent at these types of tracks. Although he owns one DNF at a correlative circuit, Alonso's remaining three races at Bahrain, Spa and Baku have seen him finish P9, P5 and P7 after qualifying P8, P6 and P10, respectively. (For what it’s worth, Alonso qualified P7 in Saudi Arabia).
Plus, Alonso has out-qualified Norris in all four of those races and has bested him in the three in which they’ve both finished.
Although Norris’s recent results do scare me a little, I’ll back Alonso up to -110 in this head-to-head.